Fixing Rufus: Congress, 2013 and the Renewable Fuel Standard

by Jim Lane (Biofuels Digest) ...Based on our industry sources, here’s an outline for a “change the RFS” outcome – what that might look like. We see four key elements — ethanol, drop-ins, biodiesel and the RIN system for smoothing out the cost and difficulties for compliance.
Element #1. Ethanol.
In a “change the RFS” scenario, we see ethanol capped at 10 percent of the market or right around that figure.
We seethe strong possibility of a cellulosic preference — possibly in the form of a numeric based not only on energy value, but emissions. For example, a cellulosic gallon that has 60 percent or higher GHG reductions — well, that could count for 1.3 standard corn ethanol gallons. An advanced biofuel gallon (50% or higher greenhouse gas emissions) could count for something like 1.2 standard ethanol gallons.
We also might see a re-calculation of the gasoline baseline emission. Right now, it’s based on 2005. and there’s an awful lot of GHG-heavy fuels or the tar sand type used in the US market — could see all that rebalanced, and we might see advanced and cellulosic biofuels showing even higher greenhouse gas emission reductions compared to conventional fuel.
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Element #2. Biodiesel.
Biodiesel is popular these days. We may see, in fact, a tightening up and clarifying or longer-term biodiesel mandates — giving guidance on numbers for several years out.
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Element #3. Drop-in fuels.
Always popular – so long as they are not made from palm or corn.
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Element #4. RINs and waivers.
We see the existing RIN system kept largely in place, with two exceptions. READ MORE