Decarbonising Global Aviation Is Feasible but Will Be a Significant Challenge, Finds Major Industry Report

(GreenAir Online) The main focus of this year’s Global Sustainable Aviation Forum, organised by the cross-industry Air Transport Action Group (ATAG), was the publication of Waypoint 2050, an analysis of pathways towards the sector’s long-term climate goal. Set over a decade ago, the target calls for a 50% net reduction in CO2 emissions by 2050 from what they were in 2005. This would mean a reduction from around 914 million tonnes (Mt) in global commercial airline carbon emissions in 2019 to 325 Mt in 2050. At the global level, the industry does not foresee reaching net-zero emissions before 2060/2065 although recognises a number of airlines will reach this by 2050, in response to national or regional goals. Given current traffic forecasts, which have been downgraded due to Covid-19, emissions could rise to 1,800 Mt by 2050 on a business-as-usual trajectory and reaching the reduction target will be a significant challenge, says ATAG, with the next 10 years being a crucial period.

“We should be under no illusion that the decarbonisation path for aviation is an easy one,” ATAG’s Executive Director, Michael Gill, told the virtual conference. “But our Waypoint 2050 analysis shows that decarbonisation is possible, and in a number of different ways. We now need the commitment from governments, the energy industry, researchers and from the aviation sector itself to make it happen.”

In its ‘Vision for 2050’, the Waypoint report expects the aviation sector to be transporting around 10 billion passengers a year, more than twice 2019 levels but 16% less than previous forecasts due to the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic.

New energy sources in 2050 will enable electric and hybrid-electric aircraft – with virtually no CO2 emissions at all – on short- and medium-haul routes, connecting secondary cities and small communities with larger hubs for onward long-haul flights. Most long-haul operations will use aircraft a generation beyond those that are flying today, with nearly all completely powered by sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) from a variety of sources, including power-to-liquid (PtL) fuels that are made by combining low-carbon electricity with CO2 removed from the air.

... Waypoint report says the single largest opportunity to meet and go beyond the industry’s 2050 goal is the rapid and worldwide scaling up of SAF and new energy sources.

“These new fuels are already flying today – over 270,000 commercial flights have taken off so far – but are still a tiny part of our overall fuel mix. We know that we can begin the energy transition away from fossil fuels in earnest, but we need support to do so.”

Sources of offsets could change significantly in the future, it says, and as well as forestry and natural climate solutions, technologies such as carbon capture and storage (CCS) and direct air carbon capture and sequestration (DACCS) could form the basis for viable offsets. However, it warns there is likely to be a large amount of residual CO2 emissions still being generated across the economy in 2050 and beyond, and there could be competition to secure remaining offsets, which could result in scarcity and high prices. READ MORE