California Approves Roadmap for Carbon Neutrality by 2045

by Sophie Austin (Associate Press) California air regulators voted unanimously Thursday to approve an ambitious plan to drastically cut reliance on fossil fuels by changing practices in the energy, transportation and agriculture sectors, but critics say it doesn’t go far enough to combat climate change.

The plan sets out to achieve so-called carbon neutrality by 2045, meaning the state will remove as many carbon emissions from the atmosphere as it emits. It aims to do so in part by reducing fossil fuel demand by 86% within that time frame.

But the plan’s road to approval by the California Air Resources Board was not without criticism. Capturing large amounts of carbon and storing it underground is one of the most controversial elements of the proposal. Critics say it gives the state’s biggest emitters reason to not do enough on their part to mitigate climate change.

It calls for the state to cut liquid petroleum fuel demand by 94% by 2045, and quadruple solar and wind capacity along that same timeframe.

“CARB’s latest draft of the Scoping Plan has acknowledged what dozens of studies have confirmed — that a complete phase-out of oil and gas is unrealistic,” said Catherine Reheis-Boyd, the group’s (Western States Petroleum Association) president, in a statement. “A plan that isn’t realistic isn’t really a plan at all.”

The plan’s targets include having 20% of aviation fuel demand come from electric or hydrogen sources by 2045 and ensuring all medium-duty vehicles sold are zero-emission by 2040. The board has already passed a policy to ban the sale of new cars powered solely by gasoline in the state starting in 2035.

Connie Cho, an attorney for environmental justice group Communities for a Better Environment, called the plan’s goal of phasing down oil refining “a huge step forward” to mitigate climate change and protect public health.

But Cho criticized its carbon capture targets, arguing they give a pathway for refineries to continue polluting as the state cuts emissions in other areas. READ MORE

Excerpt from Reuters: CARB will continue evaluating how refiners can continue to operate to export fuel, said CARB spokesperson Dave Clegern.

Since 1990, 13 Californian refineries with a combined capacity of 3 million barrels per day (bpd) have closed. Current refining capacity in California is 1.7 million bpd.

The loss of more refining capacity could come in this decade, said David Hackett, chairman of the board of Stillwater Associates, a California energy consultancy. READ MORE

Excerpt from E&E News: At the same time, a controversial new rule passed last week will slash incentives offered to homeowners who install rooftop solar systems, leading to concerns that California could lose out on new solar at a time when the grid needs it most.

Those measures are intended to get rid of natural gas in homes and businesses, while also encouraging them to use more efficient appliances that could reduce a household’s electricity use.

But they also come with a clear side effect, said Duncan Callaway, an associate professor of energy and resources at the University of California, Berkeley: the potential for higher electricity demand.

In a June study, Callaway and other researchers projected the grid effects of electrifying certain heaters and transitioning to electric vehicles. The state has a mandate to sell 100 percent zero-emission vehicles by 2035.

In a scenario where more than 50 percent of buildings are electrified by 2050, the study estimated that Pacific Gas and Electric Co. would need to upgrade more than two-thirds of its circuit feeders that distribute electricity locally to accommodate a higher load. An added challenge for grid reliability, Callaway said, is the fact that heaters and electric vehicle chargers largely run in the evenings and at night — when demand is increasing already but renewable generation is low.

California’s electric grid is already showing signs of strain as a growing population increases demand and fossil fuel retirements shift the state’s generation mix. During a heat wave in September, the California Independent System Operator set a system record for peak demand and issued conservation calls for customers, but did not experience any blackouts.

The state’s scoping plan says the state should phase out existing natural gas-fired power plants and not build any new ones. Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) is working in the short term to shore up the power grid, with a request to keep the Diablo Canyon nuclear power plant online and establish a set of emergency reserve gas plants to prevent blackouts during heat waves. The state is adding utility-scale solar and wind power, but it remains an open question how much power and from what sources will be added as demand rises.

Why is the state cutting solar incentives that could boost the grid?

The effects of the electrification push could be lessened by having more homeowners produce their own power, which would by nature reduce the demand on the overall grid. But the new net metering rules passed last week seemed to make that prospect less likely. READ MORE