Brexit: What Does It Mean for the Advanced Bioeconomy?

Business News/Analysis European Union (EU)Opinions Policy Scotland UK (United Kingdom)

June 24, 2016

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by Jim Lane (Biofuels Digest) In the UK, the British people voted to exit the European Union in a historic vote which was announced in the early Friday hours. Following the vote, UK Prime Minister David Cameron said he would resign, and Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon said it was “highly likely” that the SNP would seek a referendum on leaving the United Kingdom after Scotland voted strongly to “Remain”.

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In the advanced bioeconomy sector, the Biofuels Digest Index was off 2.46 percent to 53.46 in early Friday trading, as declines led advances 8 to 1. Ethanol equities were off 4.81%.

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Sure, currency and stock traders are in a blind panic, as most of them bet against Brexit and are covering short positions with whatever cash they can raise from friends, supporters, and perhaps even busking in the London Underground or asking for spare change in Hyde Park.

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Next, there’s a two-year (maximum) negotiating period on withdrawal. And, a number of the UK’s engagements with the Continent are under the aegis of the 47-member Council of Europe, not the EU itself. So some of the legal framework will remain. And the UK will have opportunities for the kind of “associate” status that Switzerland and Norway, for example, use to access the “single market” of the EU.

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Scotland was allied with France for centuries (The Auld Alliance), and had significant independent economic ties to the Netherlands and Flanders, before the Scottish and English kingdoms were unified under the Stuart dynasty.

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There may well be a rise in anti-EU sentiment following the UK’s decision to withdraw.

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The Big Bioeconomy Impact

More emphasis on protectionist policy and trade development, less on climate and environmental factors.

As we reported last spring, the National Farmers Union has been encouraging European parliamentarians to vote against biofuels reform, saying legislators have been bullied into the deal by environmentalists and social pressure groups. The NFU is touting not only emissions benefits, but reducing Europe’s reliance on imported protein for animal feed, a byproduct of biofuel production.

We see it as a wave of international grumbling against open borders and trade liberalization — given that trade deals allow nations to game their way into massive increases in exports by keeping a lid on their currency values — at the expense of domestic industry. We’ve seen the grumbling that comes from, for example, China’s devalued currency. Yet, currency unions that overcome this gaming can get fouled up when different economies have different spending and debt policies — they can’t stimulate themselves into growth via devaluation — and we get problems seen last year in Greece with Grexit.

The solution is “ever-closer union” – coordinating policies, trade flows, people flows, and currency at a single international level — and that runs into stiff opposition on ideological grounds, and immigration issues raise their ugly head as poorer people flood into richer countries.

As we tipped in Knock on Wood: Why Trade and Brand will Trump Tech, earlier this week, protectionism is on the rise, though big banks, big government and big corporates hate it.

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UK and renewables

UK alternative fuel sales have been falling, even with the RED targets.

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For now, think a 7% renewable energy long-term target debate for the UK.

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It may all be academic, because the UK is in danger of missing targets — and in a Brexit, may avoid the financial consequences of a miss.

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British bioeconomy policy

Don’t think for a minute that the UK has a coherent internal policy in liquid transportation. In fact,British Airways partly blamed the lack of government support for having to scupper its Green Sky project with Solena to produce 16 million gallons of aviation biofuel annually from London’s MSW beginning in 2017.

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We may see some movement in palm oil attitudes. At the end of last year, the UK Department of the Environment, Food and Rural Affairs decided that industries other than biofuels can create their own definition of sustainability for palm oil and aren’t required to follow those approved by the European Union’s Renewable Energy Directive. It said in its recent report looking at improvements in palm oil sustainability over the past three years that it is up to the sectors themselves to decide what is sustainable. Palm oil only accounts for about 5% of the biofuel consumed in the UK, and roughly about 5% of palm oil production globally has traditionally one towards biodiesel, though that may change as Indonesia, Malaysia and India boost consumption.

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One of the biggest challenges may be R&D, which is funded and coordinated across the EU.

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One step that is expected, Britain will seek “Associate Member” status for science. Norway, Switzerland and Israel have this — permitting UK researchers to bid on EU projects and in EU consortia. The UK would simply have to pay a GDP-based membership fee.

Big issues in UK advanced bioeconomy R&D that might be affected? Recent hot R&D efforts in the UK have been around oligosaccharide sequences, enzyme research, algae application development, crop enhancement including fast hybrid selection for crops like sweet sorghum, willow and ryegrass development, and the use of DDGs in fuel cells. READ MORE / MORE and MORE (Politico's Morning Energy)

Excerpt from Politico's Morning Energy: BREXIT! U.K. residents voted in favor of withdrawing from the European Union, a decision that will send ripples across the energy world. As the "leave" tally gained momentum last night, Brent crude prices began to sink, and shortly after the BBC called the vote, the pound sterling collapsed by 10 percent $1.35, its lowest level since 1985. The U.K. is the world's 11th largest emitter of carbon and the 2nd largest in the EU, and its withdrawal could throw EU plans to fight global warming into chaos, and create complications around ratifying and implementing the Paris climate agreement. Outgoing U.N. climate chief Christiana Figueres said earlier this week that the Brexit would force a "recalibration" of the U.K.'s roll in the deal. However, it will take a couple of years for the country to completely extricate itself from the EU, during which time it could conceivably ratify the agreement.

Frack it up: Most of the regulations on hydraulic fracturing come from the EU, so the Brexit could kick open the doors for additional energy production in the U.K.

EU compliance may be harder: The U.K. is one of the biggest supporters of the European Trading System, the bloc's carbon trading market. The ETS has long been criticized as ineffective, and the EU has been working to reform it. But it is "vital" to have the U.K. at the table for those discussions, the International Energy Trading Association has said. The organization also points out that the U.K. is a hub for carbon and energy markets. EU organizations would have to reshuffle as U.K. members resign and leave posts of influence. At least one member of the European Parliament, Ian Duncan, who holds a key position working on the ETS reforms, had already drafted his resignation letter earlier this week. READ MORE