Biofuel Use Is on the Increase – Will This Make a Global Food Crisis More or Less Likely?

Aviation Fuel/Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF)BioRefineries/Renewable Fuel Production Brazil Business News/Analysis European Union (EU)Feedstocks Field/Orchard/Plantation Crops/Residues Funding/Financing/Investing Green Jobs India Indonesia International Marine/Boat Bio and Renewable Fuel/MGO/MDO/SMF Marketing/Market Forces and Sales Middle East Opinions Policy Sustainability UK (United Kingdom)

September 14, 2026

Print This Article Share it With Friends

by Charlotte Edmond (World Economic Forum) • The World Economic Forum's Fuelling the Future report argues that clean fuels can strengthen energy security while protecting food systems, if supported by the right policies.

As hundreds of millions of people face hunger, the expansion of biofuel production underscores the need to balance energy security with food security amid ongoing geopolitical disruptions.
Rising oil prices are accelerating demand for biofuels, increasing pressure on food systems and fertilizer supplies as production expands.

Demand for biofuel has climbed steeply amid soaring oil prices resulting from the Middle East conflict. Countries want to shore up their energy supplies with sources other than fossil fuels, but this risks placing more strain on food systems and restricting the availability of already-in-demand fertilizer.

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, triggered by the US-Israel war with Iran, has led many countries to look to alternative sources of fuel as oil prices surged over $100 a barrel. The US, Brazil, Indonesia and India, among others, have all raised targets for biofuel production as they look to increase energy security and insulate themselves from the current market. And if all the proposed biofuel targets are enacted, demand could surge by 30% this year and 70% by 2030, European clean transport and energy think tank T&E predicts.

A chart showing how global biofuel demand could surge by 30% this year and up to 70% by 2030.

Global biofuel demand is on the rise.Image: T&E

However, biofuels can be produced from biomass – recently living organic material, often including sugar and starch crops such as beet, corn and wheat, or oilseed crops such as soybeans. This creates a real tension between energy security and food security, as key feedstocks are diverted from food production at a time of growing concern about hunger.

Biofuels eat into crucial fertilizer supplies

Added to this, global stocks of fertilizer and its core ingredients are in high demand as geopolitical tensions around the world have made access increasingly difficult. Russia accounts for about 20% of the global fertilizer market and is the world's biggest exporter, while significant volumes pass through the Strait of Hormuz.

Already, Indonesia directs nearly one-fifth of its fertilizer supplies to biofuel rather than food production, while in the US the figure is one-tenth, according to T&E analysis. Higher biofuel targets are likely to push these shares even further, driving up fertilizer prices.

"If the biofuel mandates are abolished, the biofuel feedstock market collapses as does the demand for fertilizer, leading to a price decline in fertilizer," the OECD noted, acknowledging the challenge over a decade ago.

In a similar vein, a recent study modelling different scenarios to meet India's ethanol-blending target found a significant difference in land, water and fertilizer demands when ethanol is produced from molasses rather than sugar cane juice, illustrating the impact different feedstocks can have. The authors caution the need for careful management of feedstock portfolios in order to avoid trade-offs with climate, food security and resource sustainability goals.

Although many of the largest biofuel-producing countries are not themselves facing food scarcity, many of the world's poorest countries – least able to absorb shocks – are particularly exposed, the UN and other international bodies have warned.

Biofuels supply only 4% of global transport and energy demand.Image: T&E

Competition for land

Growing all of these crops also takes land.

Competition for agricultural land is exacerbated when increasingly frequent and severe climate crises, such as drought and flooding, are already having an impact on crop yields. Malnutrition and hunger are global issues, with 645 million people facing hunger in 2025, and healthy, varied and nutritious diets unaffordable for 2.7 billion people.

However, converting other land, such as forests and wetlands, into crop-producing land can result in increased greenhouse gas emissions by removing natural carbon storage systems such as plants and trees. This can significantly offset any emissions benefits seen from biofuel use.

The issue is further complicated by the fact that feedstock production supports a large number of rural jobs. Around 3.6 million jobs were linked to bioenergy feedstock, the International Renewable Energy Agency estimated in 2020.

...

Biofuels as a clean energy source

Liquid biofuels are primarily used for transport, whereas power and heating rely predominantly on solid biomass and biogas. Given their lower emissions intensity relative to fossil fuels, liquid biofuels offer a key path to decarbonizing hard-to-abate sectors such as aviation and shipping.

In fact, biofuel production has allowed some countries to reduce dependence on fossil fuel imports by 5-15%, as the Forum's report Fuelling the Future: How Business, Finance and Policy can Accelerate the Clean Fuels Market, highlights.

Because they are compatible with standard internal combustion engines, biofuels also offer an immediate path to cutting emissions for existing fleets while the adoption of electric vehicles grows.

Most of the current biofuel uptake is policy-driven, the Forum's report notes. In Brazil, for example, where biofuels supply 30% of energy use, demand has been supported by a series of policies introduced in response to oil shocks in the 1970s.

Diversifying feedstocks and scaling mature technologies will be equally critical to lowering costs.

To ensure biofuel expansion remains sustainable and supports energy resilience, experts recommend policies that prioritize food security by ring-fencing essential crops and agricultural inputs. READ MORE

Related articles

The Global Biofuel Alliance has just launched, but what exactly are biofuels? (World Economic Forum)
Conflict in the Middle East is impacting aviation – here’s how sustainable aviation fuels can help (World Economic Forum)
Why fertilizer has become a geopolitical issue (World Economic Forum)
Fuelling the Future: How Business, Finance and Policy can Accelerate the Clean Fuels Market (World Economic Forum)
Oil in crisis: Is it SAF’s time to shine? (Airside)
Sustainable Aviation Fuel Gaining New Awareness (AIN Online)

Excerpt from Airside: Jet fuel prices have skyrocketed following Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Madison James asks how aviation can recover – and whether alternative fuels could make the industry more resilient.

...

In November 2025, the average global cost of jet fuel was approximately US$96 per barrel. In April 2026, this had almost doubled to $188 per barrel – triggering shockwaves across the industry and slashing profits, particularly for airlines which are heavily dependent on short-haul leisure travel across Europe, like easyJet and Ryanair.

Panic ensued in anticipation of the busy summer travel season, with some major airlines cancelling flights altogether. In the UK, Europe’s biggest consumer of jet fuel, passengers did not appear overly concerned, despite the country’s low stock levels and limited refining capacity. Yet, the crisis has shed light on just how exposed the industry is to fuel shocks.

...

Speaking to Airside International at the (Farnborough) airshow, Louis Knight, associate vice president, industrials, materials and energy (IME) at Third Bridge – a global provider of primary research – said that the current issues surrounding the cost of crude oil mean that the derivative prices of kerosene and jet fuel will persist in the medium term.

...

Considering aviation’s vulnerability to fossil fuel shocks, sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) is increasingly being viewed as a potential alternative to traditional jet fuel. Governments are pinning their hopes on SAF, made from feedstocks such as used cooking oil, as a means of enabling more sustainable air travel while commercial electric and hydrogen aircraft remain a distant prospect.

Neste, the world’s biggest producer of renewable jet fuel, reported soaring profits in the first quarter of this year, partly as a result of government mandates. However, demand for SAF currently far outpaces supply, accounting for just 0.8% of global jet fuel consumption.

“There is a minor argument to suggest that SAF will compensate for the supply shortage because [the jet fuel and SAF markets] are structurally different,” Knight said.

“The Middle East conflict has significantly impacted pricing in Europe. SAF prices have moved from the low $2000s per tonne to the high $2000s per tonne as a result.”

However, SAF is not yet at the stage where it can fully replace jet fuel as a standalone solution. “According to our experts, the only reason that an airline will typically use SAF is because it’s mandated by a government or a governmental body,” Knight explained.

“SAF is not expected to meaningfully offset jet fuel shortages in 2026, and it mainly comes down to the fact that the ReFuelEU aviation regulation mandates that jet fuel is blended into conventional fuel.”

Alongside gradual progress in SAF availability, it is hoped that next-generation aircraft will incorporate fuels that are not as susceptible to shocks. For example, the CFM International RISE and the Pratt & Whitney next-generation GTF engines are currently being developed for compatibility with hydrogen and 100% SAF fuels. However, Airbus and Boeing have so far been more reticent to invest in such technology.

Hydrogen could not only be widely used for aircraft, but it is also being trialled to power ground support equipment. Earlier this year, as part of the Zero Carbon Turn project led by Exeter Airport, a hydrogen internal combustion tug, a hydrogen fuel cell baggage tractor, and a hybrid hydrogen-diesel ground power unit (GPU) carried out a live turnaround of a Boeing 737.

The UK Government recently announced £219 million ($294 million) to boost production of SAF, alongside £43 million ($58 million) to advance hydrogen-powered and electric flight.

Hydrogen’s potential, however, is fundamentally constrained by the availability of suitable airside infrastructure.

“We haven’t seen a strong prototype in hydrogen fuel, and there are some really severe challenges related to the difficulties of the logistics behind using hydrogen,” said Knight.

“There needs to be drastic amounts of investment into the infrastructure handling the gaseous and tricky nature of hydrogen, and deploying that across airports globally will be something that could see severe delays.” READ MORE

Excerpt form AIN Online: Recent panel discussion lists EU policies and the Iran war as factors

Sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) mandates across the EU and continuing challenges moving oil through the Strait of Hormuz have increased awareness of SAF and heightened the urgency to scale production and deployment, according to Cindy Tomei, president of the Sustainable Aviation Fuels Institute (SAFII).

Speaking on “The Future of Flight Runs on SAF” panel at the recent second-annual Global Aerospace Summit in St. Louis, she said that as demand for SAF continues to accelerate, it is increasingly important to build the infrastructure needed to move fuel from production facilities to airports.

“Speed is really of the essence, whether it is getting SAF scaled up regardless of what the feedstock is, but also having the right infrastructure to get it transported, stored, and blended with jet fuel, so that it can actually be used,” Tomei said.

She has seen acceleration in industry development with increasing clarity around the federal 45Z tax credit and improvements in calculating carbon intensity scores, which help determine incentive eligibility.

As the conference focused on U.S. Midwest aerospace contributions, the panel also highlighted the important role regional agriculture can play in supporting renewable fuel feedstock production. Panelists noted that meeting future demand will require additional feedstocks and innovative crops that can complement existing farming operations while providing new revenue opportunities from existing acreage for producers. READ MORE

Tags

wheat UK (United Kingdom) Transportation Fuels Policy Sustainability Sugar Beets/Energy Beets soybeans shipping Russia regulations oil seed crops molasses Middle East market forces Marine/Maritime Bio and Renewable/Sustainable Fuel (SMF) land use policy land use change land use Jetfuel (Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF)) Investing internal combustion engine (ICE) Indonesia India Hydrogen/Renewable Hydrogen hydrogen aircraft Green Jobs GHG (Greenhouse Gas Emissions) Intensity fuel prices food vs fuel food security food policy food and fuel Fleets fertilizer European Union (EU) energy security defossilization corn/maize Brazil BioRefineries/Renewable Fuel Production biomass Biogas Aviation Fuel/Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) aviation fuel (SAF) price 100% SAF (Sustainable Aviation Fuel)

Comments are closed.