2023 Billion-Ton Report: An Assessment of U.S. Renewable Carbon Resources

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March 19, 2024

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(U.S. Department of Energy) The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Bioenergy Technology Office's (BETO) 2023 Billion-Ton Report (BT23) is the 4th in a series of assessments of potential biomass resources available in the United States. BT23 explores these resources in terms of quantity, price, geographical density and distribution, and market maturity. Resource quantities in this report are limited by specified economic and environmental sustainability constraints. Good practices are needed to ensure biomass production has positive environmental outcomes.

BT23 supports BETO's mission, particularly the 2023 Multi-Year Program Plan.

Key Findings and Data
The United States can produce from 1.1 to 1.5 billion tons of biomass annually in a future mature market—with potential to provide renewable liquid fuels for hard-to-electrify sectors while meeting demands for food and environmental services.

Today, bioenergy provides about 5% of U.S. energy in the form of liquid fuels, power, and heat. Bioenergy resources are largely concentrated in the corn belt, Southeast timberlands, and metropolitan areas.

Key outcomes:

1.1–1.5 billion tons of annual biomass production potential in a mature market

Tripling bioenergy production to cover ~15% of future U.S. energy needs

Equivalent to more than 60 billion gallons of renewable-carbon liquid fuels

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Key metrics include:

Corn to ethanol: ~150 million tons per year
Wood to power: ~140 million tons per year
Landfill gas and other wastes: ~40 million tons per year

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Growing Today's Underused Biomass Supply

Currently available but unused biomass can add around 350 million more tons per year, nearly doubling bioenergy resources currently used today. Underused biomass resources include unused wastes, residues from logging operations, and agricultural residues like corn stover.

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Reaching ~1 Billion Tons with Purpose-Grown Energy Crops

Under mature-market conditions, the United States has the potential to add over 400 million tons of biomass resources per year, bringing the total available biomass to more than 1 billion tons annually. The largest source of biomass in the future is purpose-grown energy crops with a potential to provide 300–600 million tons of biomass per year. These energy crops can be produced outside prime cropland while meeting projected demands for food, feed, and fiber.

Purpose-grown energy crops are typically perennial plants grown for their large yields of biomass. Integrated landscape management is a strategy to grow energy crops in areas where they provide the greatest economic and environmental advantages, which include:

Resiliency compared to annual crops
Ability to thrive on land less advantageous for annual crops
Potential to improve water quality and reduce soil erosion if integrated strategically on the agricultural landscape within conventional crops.

A market for purpose-grown biomass crops would contribute to the economic stability of farming while meeting demands for conventional food, feed, and fiber products.

How BT23 Estimates Compare to Larger U.S. Biomass Supplies

BT23 estimates do not represent all available biomass in the United States nor equal the total U.S. supply. Rather, they represent a fraction that might be collected sustainably—often alongside the existing uses of biomass.

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FOOD, LAND USE CHANGE, AND ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS FROM BIOMASS

BT23 illustrates how the United States can sustainably increase biomass supplies while continuing to support food production, thriving ecosystems, and beneficial uses for land. Its biomass estimates are constrained to ensure environmental sustainability and that future demands are met for food, feed, and fiber. Nevertheless, consistent monitoring, assessment, and adaptive management are essential to realize these sustainable supply opportunities. Good practices are needed to ensure biomass production has positive environmental outcomes.

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Food Demands
Potential impacts to food production and land-use change have been raised as concerns of biomass production. To ensure future demands are met for food, feed, and fiber, BT23 constrains its biomass estimates in conjunction with these critical products.

Land Use Change
BT23's mature-market simulations include establishing energy crops on less than 10% of U.S. agricultural lands and increasing timber production by about 15%, with no decrease in forestlands. This production is modeled to have a less than 1% increase in food prices and a more than 25% increase in farm revenue.

Environmental Sustainability
BT23's biomass estimates are constrained to promote net carbon sequestration, water regulation, and other ecosystem services. If land management practices deviate from the sustainability constraints assumed in this report, more biomass could be produced but with possible unintended consequences. For example, more agricultural residues could be available at risk of increasing soil erosion.

EMERGING BIOMASS RESOURCES: MICROALGAE, MACROALGAE, AND POINT-SOURCE WASTE CARBON DIOXIDE

Beyond the terrestrial biomass estimates in BT23, the following resources could potentially expand that supply:

Microalgae—single-celled algae cultivated in freshwater or partially saline water
Macroalgae—multicellular algae cultivated on suspended farm systems in the ocean
Point-source waste carbon dioxide (CO2) from power plants, cement plants, and other point-source industries.

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Available biomass by county (in dry short tons per square mile) in BT23's emerging resource scenario (excludes macroalgae and CO2). Visit the BT23 data portal for complete data.

The nation has a portfolio of biomass resources. Some are used today. Some are available now but underutilized. Some could be available in the future—with different levels of economic accessibility. Together, U.S. biomass resources represent an opportunity to provide renewable energy for hard-to-electrify sectors such as aviation, marine, and rail—key components of a decarbonized transportation sector.

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2023 Billion-Ton Report

2023 Billion-Ton Report: An Assessment of U.S. Renewable Carbon Resources

Executive Summary

Glossary

READ MORE; includes VIDEO

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Each woman is shaping the landscape of biomass analysis and sustainable resource management. Their extraordinary efforts and expertise in forestry science serve as an example to the indelible impact of women in driving progress and innovation across the bioenergy and forestry industry. Watch this BT23 forestry case study video to discover more about these dynamic women foresters and their contributions to the BT23 Report.

To learn more about DOE’s efforts to build a strong, low-carbon bioeconomy, visit the BT23 Report webpage. Visit bioenergyKDF, the bioenergy data portal that supports the data-driven bioeconomy, to further explore BT23 and bioenergy data-driven analyses, interactive maps, and graphics.

READ MORE

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