Will Biden's EV Push Cost Him Come Election Time?

January 22, 2024

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by James Osborne (Houston Chronicle) Sitting on stage at the Washington Auto Show last week surrounded by the latest electric offerings from Tesla and Rolls-Royce, Rep. Roger Williams, a North Texas Republican whose family had sold cars for three generations, shook his head in disbelief.

"It used to be customers told (dealers) what they wanted. We told the manufacturers, and that's what they made," he said. "The government is trying to shove these EVs down people's throat. They don’t want it. It’s a phony economy."

Ten months ahead of the presidential election, Republicans are honing in on a series of recent setbacks for electric vehicle sales as proof the technology and the Biden administration's effort to get it in Americans' driveways as quickly as possible are a doomed effort that will cost U.S. taxpayers hundreds of billions of dollars.

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The Biden administration, which along with governments worldwide has made electrifying transportation a cornerstone of its climate policy, has portrayed the production delays as bumps in the road as the United States establishes itself at the forefront of a major new industry.

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How much of a role EVs play in an election year where issues such as inflation, the future of Democracy and immigration are top of mind for most voters remains to be seen when general election campaigns ramp up this year.

But Republicans clearly see an opening, using EVs as an opportunity to portray President Joe Biden and Democrats as out of touch with average Americans, said Mark Jones, a political science professor at Rice University.

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"This election is going to be about mobilizing voters, and this is an issue you can use to mobilize people," he (Mark Jones, a political science professor at Rice University) said. "You can see Republicans making this about Democrats and coastal elites trying to impose their values and making everyone buy a more expensive product than they would prefer to buy."

It might be working.

A poll by the Pew Research Center last summer found that the number of Americans who supported the transition away from gasoline-powered vehicles had declined to 40% from 47% in 2022, with skepticism particularly pronounced among Republicans and Republican-leaning independents. READ MORE

Excerpt from Washington Post: The battle for the climate will require electrifying America’s transportation system. But the Biden administration’s effort to push drivers into electric vehicles is unrealistic — and it risks setting back the country’s whole climate program, legitimizing Republican arguments that the energy transition needed to prevent catastrophic climate change is an ill-wrought, heavy-handed intrusion by the government into Americans’ lives.

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The moment requires more than just softening rules to acknowledge union and industry gripes, however. The administration should shift the transition to a perhaps slower but more plausible path — one that acknowledges the many obstacles blocking a quick, mass electrification of the light vehicle fleet. Many American drivers remain reluctant to replace their gas-powered cars and trucks with electric vehicles. EV sales are slowing, prompting several carmakers to pare back their production schedules. This is understandable. Drivers fear getting stuck on the road without juice, far from stations that can replenish their batteries in reasonable amounts of time.

Even the fastest chargers can take up to an hour to recharge a spent EV battery. And despite rich incentives for charger deployment in the Inflation Reduction Act, there aren’t many at the moment. There are fewer than 10,000 fast public charging stations around the country, according to the Energy Department, alongside 54,000 slower chargers that can take up to 10 hours to charge a car from empty to full. By contrast, there are about 170,000 gas stations where drivers can fill tanks pretty fast.

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The good news is that there is an alternative electrification path available that doesn’t rely on unrealistically rapid deployment of charging infrastructure: The administration can open space in its rules to encourage the purchase of plug-in hybrids. These are not just traditional hybrid cars; they have large batteries, albeit not as large as those for full EVs, that can power cars for substantial distances without assistance. But they also have internal combustion engines that kick in when their electric batteries run out.

The Just Stop Oil crowd might see this as an unacceptable favor to the fossil fuel industry. But hybrids can match 80 percent or more of the carbon emissions reductions delivered by full EVs, according to Paul Bledsoe, an environmental policy lecturer at American University. That’s because Americans, on average, drive fewer than 40 miles in a day, which keeps them within the range of the smaller plug-in hybrid battery.

Plug-in hybrids deliver other benefits. They are much cheaper, and they do not require the vast amounts of rare earths and other hard-to-find minerals that EVs need. Mr. Bledsoe, who served on President Bill Clinton’s Climate Change Task Force, says that five plug-in hybrids can be made from the minerals used in one EV.

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Opening a short transitional phase in which the government includes substantial room for plug-in hybrid vehicles in its vehicle standards would create time for the next generation of battery technologies — which won’t require as many rare minerals — to mature.

The European Union, it’s true, has set 2035 as the year when all new cars in the bloc must produce zero emissions, as have some U.S. states. This would bar plug-in hybrids. But the EV market share of new cars in Europe is double that of the United States. The bloc also enjoys a denser network of charging stations.

And, critically, Europe’s politics are different. The push for full electric vehicles in the United States is one of Republicans’ leading attack lines. EVs’ cost and range issues spur more anxiety here.

Perhaps the best case for hybrid gas/electric cars is that the driving public is embracing them: Worldwide sales of plug-in hybrids spiked 47 percent last year, which was 17 percentage points higher than EVs’ sales growth. Toyota, hybrids’ loudest champion, sold 3.4 million of them last year, earning headlines such as “Was Toyota’s bet on hybrid cars right all along?”

The EV transition will have to happen over the next couple of decades. But forcing an immediate transition to full electric vehicles could produce backlash against the Biden administration’s entire climate change strategy. Encouraging plug-in hybrids first would be like driving through a green light. READ MORE

Excerpt from Washington Post: At the dinner, Trump also promised that he would scrap Biden’s “mandate” on electric vehicles — mischaracterizing ambitious rules that the Environmental Protection Agency recently finalized, according to people who attended. The rules require automakers to reduce emissions from car tailpipes, but they don’t mandate a particular technology such as EVs. Trump called them “ridiculous” in the meeting with donors.

The fossil fuel industry has aggressively lobbied against the EPA’s tailpipe rules, which could eat into demand for its petroleum products. The American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers, an industry trade group, has launched a seven-figure campaign against what it calls a de facto “gas car ban.” The campaign includes ads in battleground states warning that the rule will restrict consumer choice.

“Clearly, if you are producing gasoline and diesel, you want to make sure that there’s enough market there,” said Stephen Brown, an energy consultant and a former lobbyist for Tesoro, an oil refining company. “I don’t know that the oil industry would walk in united with a set of asks for the Trump administration, but I think it’s important for this issue to get raised.”

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Biden’s EV policies have also sparked opposition in rural, Republican-led states such as North Dakota, where there are far more oil pump jacks than charging stations. A key figure leading the Trump campaign’s development of its energy policy is North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum (R), who has been talking extensively to oil donors and CEOs.

At a fundraiser on Saturday in Palm Beach, Fla., Burgum told donors that Trump would halt Biden’s “attack” on fossil fuels, according to a recording of his remarks obtained by The Post.

“What would be the No. 1 thing that President Trump could do on Day 1? It’s stop the hostile attack against all American energy, and I mean all,” Burgum said. “Whether it’s baseload electricity, whether it’s oil, whether it’s gas, whether it’s ethanol, there is an attack on liquid fuels.”

Burgum also criticized the Biden administration’s policies on gas stoves and vehicles with internal combustion engines, falsely claiming that they would prevent consumers from buying both technologies.

“They’ve got some liberal idea about what products we need,” Burgum said. “You all need EV cars. You don’t need internal combustion. We’ll decide what kind of car you’re going to drive, and we’re going to regulate the other ones out of business. I mean, it’s just in every industry, not just in cars, not just in energy. They’re telling people what stoves you can buy. This is not America.” READ MORE

Excerpt from Politico: Former Environmental Protection Agency chief Andrew Wheeler told the POLITICO Energy podcast that he sees key pieces of Biden’s green policies falling quickly if former President Donald Trump wins in November: Courts will strike down Biden’s aggressive pollution limits for coal- and gas-fueled power plants, he predicted. He suspects the auto industry won’t fight to keep regulations pushing a swift transition to electric vehicles, especially in light of EVs’ disappointing sales numbers.

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Trump campaign spokesperson Karoline Leavitt would not comment on Wheeler specifically, but said in a statement that “on day one, President Trump will reverse Joe Biden’s extreme electric vehicle mandate, unleash American Energy to lower inflation for all Americans, and make America energy independent again.”

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Slashing pollution limits for power plants and vehicles, at the same time that power companies are trying to meet surging demands from energy-intensive data centers and manufacturing plants, is a recipe for a crisis.

“You have the administration’s demands for new electricity for EV cars, and you have regulations that are hamstringing the utility sector on producing new electricity, and they can’t even produce enough to make up the deficit that the regulations cause,” he said.

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On transportation, Wheeler said a second Trump administration would undo Biden’s effort to turbocharge the adoption of electric vehicles by ratcheting down emissions from cars, trucks and SUVs.

That rule has drawn particular ire from Trump on the campaign trail, where he has inaccurately derided it as an “EV mandate.”

EPA has estimated that under its rule, 68 percent of new cars or light trucks sold in 2032 will be electric — surpassing Biden’s goal of 50 percent EV sales by the end of the decade. But Wheeler dismissed the EPA estimate as “more of an aspirational goal than a regulation.”

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“We don’t have the electricity for that regulation. We don’t have the supply chain of materials, the critical minerals for the batteries,” he added. “I don’t think there’s any reasonable person who’s looking at the auto sector and thinks we’re going to be able to have two-thirds of our cars EVs by 2032. It just can’t physically be done.”

While the auto industry has expressed initial support for that Biden rule, Wheeler questioned whether car companies would stand by it if Trump were reelected.

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“They don’t necessarily want to go out and tell their customers or their investors, yes, this needs to be overturned, but they’re looking at the same data that everybody else is looking at — and that the American public is not fully behind EV cars yet,” Wheeler said. READ MORE

Excerpt from Washington Post: But now, facing a tough reelection climate in November, some Senate Democrats who are fighting for their political lives in red states are distancing themselves from aspects of President Biden’s EV policies as Republicans go on the offense against Biden’s environmental agenda.

Presumptive GOP presidential nominee Donald Trump has made bashing EVs a cornerstone of his campaign, effectively turning them into culture war fodder in an election year. Meanwhile, a fossil fuel industry group is pouring millions of dollars in ads in swing states tying Democratic senators to Biden’s EV push.

Trump has vowed to roll back Biden’s electric vehicle efforts and warned “you’re not going to be able to sell those cars” if he becomes president.

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It is an easy attack line for Trump, however, who called the Biden regulations “ridiculous” in a recent meeting with oil industry executives who he brazenly asked to raise $1 billion for his campaign.

At a rally in Las Vegas earlier this month, Trump went on a lengthy rant against electric-powered boats, saying he would have trouble knowing what to do if the boat was sinking in shark-infested waters. “Do I get electrocuted if the boat is sinking, water goes over the battery, the boat is sinking? Do I stay on top of the boat and get electrocuted, or do I jump over by the shark and not get electrocuted?” he asked.

“I’ll take electrocution every single time,” he said. “I’m not getting near the shark.”

Last week, Trump told Senate Republicans behind closed doors he would “get rid of” Biden’s “disastrous” EV policy if he’s elected president, according to Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo).

Some Democrats in particularly tough races are distancing themselves from aspects of Biden’s policies. The issue has become so politicized that data shows more Democrats than Republicans are buying EVs.

In May, Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) introduced a bipartisan Congressional Review Act resolution to overturn the Biden administration’s decision to allow components of EV batteries to be made in China, putting an exclamation point on his weeks of criticism of the Biden administration’s stance toward EVs.

“The U.S. must ban Chinese electric vehicles now, and stop a flood of Chinese government-subsidized cars that threaten Ohio auto jobs, and our national and economic security,” Brown wrote in an April letter to Biden.

Earlier in May, the Biden administration announced steep new tariffs on Chinese-made electric vehicles.

Both Brown and Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.) unsuccessfully voted to roll back Biden’s emissions standards, and also voted with Republicans to scrap a Biden rule that would exempt EV charging stations from “Buy America” rules. Biden later vetoed the chargers measure.

“There is a lot of concern about electric vehicles out of the state of Ohio that’s probably bad for Sherrod Brown overall, but the silver lining is it provides him an opportunity to draw some contrasts to Joe Biden,” said Christopher Devine, a political science professor at the University of Dayton.

In Ohio, an auto manufacturing state where cars are core to politics, Brown’s GOP rival, Bernie Moreno, has criticized the “manic” move to EVs, saying it could destroy the auto industry. Brown allies have gone after Moreno for previously selling Chinese-made Buicks in his car dealership.

Ohio is home to auto manufacturing plants, including some owned by General Motors, who have signed onto the Biden administration’s EV push. After the Environmental Protection Agency adjusted its initial emissions standards and slowed the pace to electrification in its latest regulation, most of the auto industry has signed onto the policy. The powerful United Auto Workers union has endorsed Biden, as well, after the president assuaged concerns about his commitment to promoting union jobs in electric vehicle-related factories.

Tester said he believes there needs to be more research and development of EV car batteries before more consumers will want to purchase the vehicles. “I’m an internal combustion guy,” Tester said. “The truth is if you’re going to make it competitive we’ve got to get batteries to a point where they’re more affordable and longer lasting and work at colder weather conditions.”

According to Tester’s memoir, published in 2020, he bought a used Prius to drive while in Washington, D.C.

But it’s hard to make nuanced arguments during a campaign year.

Both men are facing ads funded by a fuel industry group in their states claiming that Biden will soon ban most gas-powered cars — a reference to the president’s stringent new emissions standards that experts say is misleading.

One new ad that will begin running this week as part of a broader $6.6 million buy shows Tester’s image photoshopped into the back seat of a car with Biden. “President Biden is banning most new gas cars,” a narrator intones in the background. “Putting our freedom to choose what to drive in the rearview mirror. And Senator Jon Tester couldn’t stop him.” The ad urges voters to call Tester to tell him to keep working to stop the “ban.” Similar ads featuring Brown and Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-Nev.) will run in their states, where both senators face tough reelection bids, as well as in six other states.

American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers President and CEO Chet Thompson said he is “agnostic” on who wins the Senate races in the swing states where his group is running ads but believes the Biden administration’s EV policies are “wildly unpopular” with voters.

Thompson defended his ads’ use of the word “ban,” which experts say is inaccurate, because the new emissions standards will require auto manufacturers to make dramatically more EVs and fewer gas-powered vehicles to comply. That transition will be gradual, however.

The EPA says EVs would account for approximately “30 percent to 56 percent of new light-duty vehicle sales” and “20 percent to 32 percent of new medium-duty vehicle sales” in 2030. That’s below Biden’s initial stated desire to have EVs account for half of all new car sales by 2030. And neither constitutes a ban.

“It’s just Republican propaganda and fearmongering,” said Sen. Gary Peters (D-Mich.), the chair of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee.

But the political challenges remain.

Many of the EV tax credits passed in the Inflation Reduction Act have gone to buyers in California and on the coasts, furthering the difficulty of selling the move in red states. Republicans and some Democrats have also argued that the Biden administration has been too permissive of China-made battery parts making up the vehicles, while Republicans plan to argue that lawmakers authorized billions in spending in the legislation without meaningfully lowering inflation.

Some liberal groups are arguing that Democrats should work harder to sell the benefits of the investment in EVs — including factories being built in red states — and explain to voters the economic benefits.

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Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.) — who is running for that state’s open Senate seat and is facing heat for opposing a measure to halt efforts in states to limit gas-powered cars in the House in 2023 — has taken a more offensive tack. “I know Donald Trump has made electric vehicles his new ‘woke’ culture war,” she said in a statement after her vote. “Those vehicles are going to be made. And I am always going to pick Team America over Team China making those damn vehicles.”

But Trump’s constant demonization of the vehicles — “MAY THEY ROT IN HELL,” he wrote of EV supporters in a Truth Social post last Christmas — have only served to make EVs more unpopular among Republicans.

And adoption of EVs is not high in most red states. In Ohio for example, just around 3.25 percent of new vehicle purchases are electric vehicles, according to the Toledo Blade newspaper. In 2022, just 3,300 EVs were registered in the state of Montana, amounting to less than half a percentage point of all vehicles.

Republican strategist Mike Murphy, who is leading an effort to encourage more EV adoption among conservatives, says the gap between Democrats and Republicans on EVs is staggering. More than 61 percent of Democrats said they believed their friends would think it was a “smart move” if they bought an EV, compared to just 19 percent of Republicans who said the same in polling commissioned by Murphy.

“They marketed EVs as environmental, I’m-a-good-person-mobiles,” Murphy said, which alienated Republicans who tend to be more skeptical of climate change. READ MORE