Why Brazil Has Escaped Trump’s Tariff Targeting (So Far)

by Gabriel Malheiros (Datamar News) “The question isn’t whether Brazil will face tariffs—it’s when” That’s the assessment of experts consulted by BBC News Brasil regarding the future of Donald Trump’s tariff policies.

“It’s highly likely that Brazil will eventually become a target of U.S. tariffs,” says economist Otaviano Canuto, a former vice president at the World Bank and researcher at the Policy Center for the New South.

“Not next week, when Europe will probably be in the crosshairs, but later on, very likely.”

And while Washington has yet to announce any concrete measures against Brazil, Trump has repeatedly called out the country in his speeches, labeling it a “major taxer.”

At the end of January, the Republican included Brazil among nations that “wish harm” on the U.S.

“Put tariffs on countries and foreign people who truly mean us harm,” Trump said. “China is a huge tariff imposer. India, Brazil, so many, many countries. We’re not going to let that happen anymore because we will always put America first,” he declared at a rally in Florida.

That’s why, according to Vinícius Vieira, professor of Economics and International Relations at Fundação Armando Álvares Penteado (FAAP), “The question isn’t whether Brazil will face tariffs, but when.”

Not a Priority—For Now

Experts believe the country is simply not high on Washington’s list of priorities.

Brazil has no free trade agreement with the U.S. and runs a trade deficit with the country—meaning it buys more American goods than it sells.

“In Trump’s view, and that of his inner circle, these trade surpluses are essentially gifts from America,” says Otaviano Canuto.

But that logic doesn’t apply to Brazil. In 2024, the U.S. actually recorded a $253 million trade surplus with Brazil.

Tariffs as a Bargaining Chip

While Brazil may not be a priority for economic reasons, its membership in the BRICS bloc could put it in Trump’s crosshairs. The Republican has already threatened BRICS nations with 100% tariffs if they support efforts to use alternative currencies instead of the U.S. dollar.

“There’s no chance that BRICS will replace the U.S. dollar in global trade—or anywhere else—and any country that tries will face tariffs and say goodbye to America,” Trump declared in late January.

Though BRICS has explored mechanisms for settling trade in Chinese yuan and issuing loans in non-dollar currencies, there’s no imminent plan for a unified BRICS currency.

That’s why Daiane Santos, an economics professor at the State University of Rio de Janeiro (UERJ), believes Brazil won’t be targeted immediately. “A BRICS common currency has been discussed for a long time, but I find it unlikely in the short term,” she says.

However, Livio Ribeiro, associate researcher at the Brazilian Institute of Economics (Ibre-FGV) and partner at BRCG Consultoria, warns that Trump has shown he’s willing to use tariffs as a geopolitical weapon—not just an economic tool.

Because Brazil carries less economic weight, he speculates, it could be targeted as an “example” to pressure more significant trade partners.

President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has already stated that Brazil would retaliate if Trump imposed tariffs on Brazilian exports.

“It’s very simple: if he taxes Brazilian products, Brazil will reciprocate by taxing U.S. exports,” Lula said. READ MORE

Excerpt from Bloomberg: By Fernando Travaglini. President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva received a warning from a major Brazilian ethanol company, Raizen, that ethanol could be the next target of trade measures adopted by President Donald Trump, says Folha de S.Paulo, which cites a document obtained by the newspaper. Raizen told Folha it would not comment. The US has complained that Brazil imposes barriers on the entry of its corn-based ethanol, while the Brazilian equivalent, made from sugar cane, enters the US market basically tariff-free. Brazil’s 18% tariff mainly affects producers in the US Midwest. According to Folha, members of the Brazilian government refute the argument and say that the cases in the two countries are not entirely comparable. Trump announced earlier he will announce the reciprocal tariffs on Thursday. “Today is the big one,” he wrote on his social network Truth Social. READ MORE