by Gabriel Malheiros (Datamar News) “The question isn’t whether Brazil will face tariffs—it’s when” That’s the assessment of experts consulted by BBC News Brasil regarding the future of Donald Trump’s tariff policies.
“It’s highly likely that Brazil will eventually become a target of U.S. tariffs,” says economist Otaviano Canuto, a former vice president at the World Bank and researcher at the Policy Center for the New South.
“Not next week, when Europe will probably be in the crosshairs, but later on, very likely.”
...
And while Washington has yet to announce any concrete measures against Brazil, Trump has repeatedly called out the country in his speeches, labeling it a “major taxer.”
At the end of January, the Republican included Brazil among nations that “wish harm” on the U.S.
“Put tariffs on countries and foreign people who truly mean us harm,” Trump said. “China is a huge tariff imposer. India, Brazil, so many, many countries. We’re not going to let that happen anymore because we will always put America first,” he declared at a rally in Florida.
That’s why, according to Vinícius Vieira, professor of Economics and International Relations at Fundação Armando Álvares Penteado (FAAP), “The question isn’t whether Brazil will face tariffs, but when.”
Not a Priority—For Now
So why has Brazil been spared so far?
Experts believe the country is simply not high on Washington’s list of priorities.
Brazil has no free trade agreement with the U.S. and runs a trade deficit with the country—meaning it buys more American goods than it sells.
...
“In Trump’s view, and that of his inner circle, these trade surpluses are essentially gifts from America,” says Otaviano Canuto.
But that logic doesn’t apply to Brazil. In 2024, the U.S. actually recorded a $253 million trade surplus with Brazil.
...
Tariffs as a Bargaining Chip
While Brazil may not be a priority for economic reasons, its membership in the BRICS bloc could put it in Trump’s crosshairs. The Republican has already threatened BRICS nations with 100% tariffs if they support efforts to use alternative currencies instead of the U.S. dollar.
“There’s no chance that BRICS will replace the U.S. dollar in global trade—or anywhere else—and any country that tries will face tariffs and say goodbye to America,” Trump declared in late January.
Though BRICS has explored mechanisms for settling trade in Chinese yuan and issuing loans in non-dollar currencies, there’s no imminent plan for a unified BRICS currency.
That’s why Daiane Santos, an economics professor at the State University of Rio de Janeiro (UERJ), believes Brazil won’t be targeted immediately. “A BRICS common currency has been discussed for a long time, but I find it unlikely in the short term,” she says.
However, Livio Ribeiro, associate researcher at the Brazilian Institute of Economics (Ibre-FGV) and partner at BRCG Consultoria, warns that Trump has shown he’s willing to use tariffs as a geopolitical weapon—not just an economic tool.
Because Brazil carries less economic weight, he speculates, it could be targeted as an “example” to pressure more significant trade partners.
...
President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has already stated that Brazil would retaliate if Trump imposed tariffs on Brazilian exports.
“It’s very simple: if he taxes Brazilian products, Brazil will reciprocate by taxing U.S. exports,” Lula said. READ MORE
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- Trump’s tariffs could target Brazilian ethanol (Bloomberg)
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- US Biofuel Suppliers Jump as Trump Targets Brazilian Ethanol (Bloomberg Law)
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Excerpt from Bloomberg: By Fernando Travaglini. President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva received a warning from a major Brazilian ethanol company, Raizen, that ethanol could be the next target of trade measures adopted by President Donald Trump, says Folha de S.Paulo, which cites a document obtained by the newspaper. Raizen told Folha it would not comment. The US has complained that Brazil imposes barriers on the entry of its corn-based ethanol, while the Brazilian equivalent, made from sugar cane, enters the US market basically tariff-free. Brazil’s 18% tariff mainly affects producers in the US Midwest. According to Folha, members of the Brazilian government refute the argument and say that the cases in the two countries are not entirely comparable. Trump announced earlier he will announce the reciprocal tariffs on Thursday. “Today is the big one,” he wrote on his social network Truth Social. READ MORE
Excerpt from Argus Media: Brazil's growing ethanol industry is a likely target for "reciprocal" US tariffs that President Donald Trump plans to impose on products from countries that he says discriminate against US imports.
In announcing the plan Thursday to raise US import tariffs to the same level foreign countries charge on US exports, Trump did not specify which countries and products would face the new levies. But a White House fact sheet specifically mentions Brazil's treatment of US ethanol as an unfair practice worth addressing. "The US tariff on ethanol is a mere 2.5pc. Yet Brazil charges the US ethanol exports a tariff of 18pc," the White House said.
The US produces more ethanol than any other country, almost all derived from corn. Brazil, the world's second largest ethanol producer, largely uses sugarcane as a feedstock but has a fast-growing corn ethanol industry, too.
The disparity in tariff rates has long frustrated US producers, who have become reliant on export markets since ethanol's growth in the US is limited by rising vehicle fuel efficiency, electric vehicle adoption and regulatory constraints on higher blends. The US exported more than 1.9bn USG of ethanol last year according to the Renewable Fuels Association, an all-time high.
Renewable Fuels Association general counsel Ed Hubbard told Argus last week that his organization raised the issue of Brazilian tariffs with Trump transition staffers, and the office of senator Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) said he discussed the same at a recent meeting with Jamieson Greer, Trump's nominee to be US trade representative. Greer said at a recent Senate hearing that Brazil's tariff on US ethanol was among his top priorities.
...
But new tariffs would hurt LanzaJet, a US biofuel producer with a plant that imports Brazilian ethanol and refines it into sustainable aviation fuel (SAF). While the company says it can and does use other feedstocks, federal and state clean fuel programs treat Brazilian sugarcane ethanol as lower-carbon. LanzaJet thus earns larger subsidies for producing fuel from sugarcane ethanol than if it used more corn ethanol, which is generally too carbon-intensive to qualify for a new US biofuel tax credit.
"Tariffs impacting nascent industries like SAF will undoubtedly hurt the United States' potential to continue to lead in this space — limiting our ability to import necessary resources and export our own for the global market, given aviation is a global industry," LanzaJet vice president for corporate affairs Meg Whitty said. READ MORE
Excerpt from Bloomberg Law: US biofuel suppliers jumped as President Donald Trump targeted Brazilian tariffs on US ethanol exports.
The president on Thursday signed a measure directing the US Trade Representative and Commerce secretary to propose new levies on a country-by-country basis in an effort to rebalance trade relations. A White House statement cited Brazil’s 18% tariffs on US ethanol exports as an example of “unfair” trade practice.
Trump’s effort was seen as potentially an opening bid for negotiation with other countries to pare their tariffs and other trade barriers against US goods. By singling out Brazil’s treatment of US ethanol, the White House ... READ MORE
Excerpt from Reuters: Silveira calls U.S. ethanol tariff unreasonable; Trump's plan could lead to higher tariffs by April
BRASILIA/SAO PAULO, Feb 13 (Reuters) - Brazil's Energy and Mining Minister Alexandre Silveira said on Thursday that a potential U.S. tariff on Brazilian ethanol would be unreasonable, emphasizing that the two countries have historically negotiated ethanol and sugar trade together.
His remarks came after U.S. President Donald Trump moved to scrap decades-old low tariff rates, raising them to match those of other countries. A White House fact sheet on the plan pointed to Brazil's ethanol tariffs as an example of unfair trade practices.
"The U.S. tariff on ethanol is a mere 2.5%, yet Brazil charges U.S. ethanol exports an 18% tariff. As a result, in 2024, the U.S. imported over $200 million in ethanol from Brazil while exporting only $52 million in ethanol to Brazil," the document said on Thursday.
Silveira argued that for Trump's plan to be fair and reciprocal, as the Republican advocates, the world's largest economy would need to eliminate import tariffs on Brazilian sugar.
"The measure adopted by President Trump is unreasonable, as there is no mention of allowing greater Brazilian sugar exports to the U.S.," he said in a statement.
...
Trump's announcement has no immediate impact but could result in higher tariffs for major trading partners by early April, sparking negotiations with dozens of countries to reduce tariffs and trade barriers.
Brazilian Finance Minister Fernando Haddad said on Thursday he saw potential for tariff negotiations with the U.S.
Brazil, one of the world's largest sugar producers, produced some 35 billion liters of ethanol in 2024, but exported less than 6%, of which only some 300 million liters went to U.S., a report from BTG Pactual showed.
Meanwhile, Brazil imported 192 million liters of ethanol in 2024, 109 million of which came from the U.S., according to BTG Pactual, noting most of U.S. ethanol comes from corn, while sugarcane-based ethanol still holds the lead in Brazil.
In the statement, Silveira argued the U.S. imposes a $360-per-tonne tariff on sugar imports outside preferential quotas, equating to an 81.2% tax considering current market prices - far higher than Brazil's 18% ethanol tariff.
He noted U.S.-set sugar import quota for Brazil last harvest was 147,540 tonnes, or about 0.4% of total sugar exports from Latin America's largest economy.
"For a long time now... Brazil has not been able to export sugar to the United States, except in small quotas, because their tariffs make exportation unfeasible," the head of Brazil sugar and ethanol lobby group Unica, Evandro Gussi, told Reuters.
On the other hand, in a statement, U.S. Renewable Fuels Association, an ethanol trade group, thanked Trump "for his commitment to reestablishing a fair and reciprocal ethanol trading relationship with Brazil." READ MORE
Excerpt from Renewable Fuels Association: The Renewable Fuels Association today thanked President Trump for his commitment to reestablishing a fair and reciprocal ethanol trading relationship with Brazil. While Brazilian-made ethanol has enjoyed virtually duty-free access to the U.S. market since 2012, Brazil has implemented tariffs and disruptive trade barriers against imports of U.S. ethanol starting in 2017. As a result of Brazil’s punitive tariffs, U.S. ethanol exports to Brazil have essentially dried up in recent years—despite American-made ethanol being the most cost-competitive renewable fuel in the world.
In announcing the development of a comprehensive plan to restore fairness in U.S. trade relationships, the White House today cited Brazil’s tariff on U.S. ethanol as a specific example “where our trading partners do not give the United States reciprocal treatment.”
“For almost a decade now, we have spent precious time and resources fighting back against an unfair and unjustified tariff regime imposed by Brazil's government on U.S. ethanol imports,” said RFA President and CEO Geoff Cooper. “What's more ironic is that these tariff barriers have been erected against U.S. ethanol imports while our country has openly accepted—and even encouraged and incentivized—ethanol imports from Brazil.
"As the two largest ethanol producers on the planet, we long enjoyed a cooperative free-trade relationship with Brazil involving ethanol, relying on each other when there were shortfalls or disruptions in the U.S. or Brazilian marketplace. However, that bilateral cooperation was abandoned by Brazil in 2017, when they instituted a tariff rate quota scheme, and eventually adopted a tariff in 2020. The Brazilian tariff on U.S. ethanol now stands at 18 percent and has virtually eliminated all market access for U.S. ethanol producers. We thank President Trump for taking this action and hope this reciprocal tariff will help encourage a return to free and fair ethanol trade relationship with Brazil.”
Cooper noted that U.S. ethanol exports to Brazil went from 489 million gallons in 2018, with a value of $761million, to just 28 million gallons in 2024, valued at $53 million.
In 2020, RFA urged the first Trump administration to consider imposing reciprocal tariffs against Brazil in hopes that it would convince them to remove the tariffs, or at least bring them back to the negotiating table. RFA continued to push for a reciprocal tariff during the Biden administration. However, the Biden administration did not take action to impose of any such counter-tariff, despite Brazil's insistence on continuing its protectionist trade strategy. READ MORE
Excerpt from International Valor: The head of Brazil’s Sugarcane and Bioenergy Industry Association (UNICA), Evandro Gussi, criticized U.S. President Donald Trump’s recent comments about Brazil’s 18% import tariff on foreign ethanol. According to Mr. Gussi, the U.S. complaints are unfounded because the biofuels produced in the two countries are “different products.”
President Trump signed an executive order on Tuesday imposing reciprocal trade tariffs as a way to “level the playing field” in what he called “unfair” trade relationships. The measure could raise the current 2.5% tariff on Brazilian ethanol imports into the U.S.
“We regret [Trump’s announcement] because we’re talking about two different things. The U.S. buys Brazilian ethanol because ours is far more sustainable, with just one-third of the emissions of U.S.-produced ethanol. That’s why California imports Brazilian ethanol to meet its environmental targets,” Mr. Gussi told Valor.
Brazilian ethanol was singled out in a White House statement as one of the tariff disparities that justified the new trade policy.
Mr. Gussi also pointed out that, while President Trump criticizes Brazil’s ethanol import tax, he ignores the steep U.S. tariff on Brazilian sugar. “Sugar faces a 100% tariff in the U.S. Brazil can only export within a restricted quota,” he said. “This idea that the U.S. is a completely free-market economy is misleading.”
The executive described Mr. Trump’s willingness to tax Brazilian ethanol as a disregard for climate action and decarbonization efforts.
Asked about UNICA’s response, Mr. Gussi said the association will engage with Brazilian government officials but made it clear that it will not accept any negotiations that treat Brazilian and U.S. ethanol as identical products that should be subject to the same trade policies.
Guilherme Nolasco, president of the National Corn Ethanol Union (UNEM), said his organization is closely monitoring Brazil’s official stance on the issue. He argues that the government should focus on strengthening biofuels through joint initiatives with the U.S. rather than engaging in a trade dispute. READ MORE
Excerpt from American Ag Network: “While American biofuel producers have been almost entirely blocked off from the Brazilian market, Brazilian producers have enjoyed unfettered access to the U.S. In some cases, certain policies in the U.S. even incentivize the use of imported Brazilian ethanol instead of ethanol produced here in the U.S.,” said Growth Energy CEO Emily Skor. “This runs contrary to putting America first, and is exactly why President Trump is taking steps to address this issue. Thank you, President Trump for taking action and pushing for a level playing field for American ethanol producers.”
According to a statement from the Renewable Fuels Association, while Brazilian-made ethanol has enjoyed virtually duty-free access to the U.S. market since 2012, Brazil has implemented tariffs and disruptive trade barriers against imports of U.S. ethanol starting in 2017. As a result of Brazil’s punitive tariffs, U.S. ethanol exports to Brazil have essentially dried up in recent years—despite American-made ethanol being the most cost-competitive renewable fuel in the world.
“For almost a decade now, we have spent precious time and resources fighting back against an unfair and unjustified tariff regime imposed by Brazil’s government on U.S. ethanol imports,” said RFA President and CEO Geoff Cooper. “What’s more ironic is that these tariff barriers have been erected against U.S. ethanol imports while our country has openly accepted—and even encouraged and incentivized—ethanol imports from Brazil.
Cooper noted that U.S. ethanol exports to Brazil went from 489 million gallons in 2018, with a value of $761 million, to just 28 million gallons in 2024, valued at $53 million.
Meanwhile, Brazil’s Energy and Mining Minister Alexandre Silveira said on Thursday that a potential U.S. tariff on Brazilian ethanol would be unreasonable, emphasizing that the two countries have historically negotiated ethanol and sugar trade together.
His remarks came after President Donald Trump moved to scrap decades-old low tariff rates, raising them to match those of other countries. A White House fact sheet on the plan pointed to Brazil’s ethanol tariffs as an example of unfair trade practices. The U.S. tariff on ethanol is a mere 2.5%, yet Brazil charges U.S. ethanol exports an 18% tariff. As a result, in 2024, the U.S. imported over $200 million in ethanol from Brazil while exporting only $52 million in ethanol to Brazil, the document said on Thursday. READ MORE
Excerpt from Money Times: The possibility of US President Donald Trump imposing reciprocal tariffs on ethanol imported from Brazil has raised alarm bells in the national sugar-energy sector, which has biofuel as an important asset for the country.
According to experts, there will be negative impacts on the Brazilian economy if Washington decides to increase taxes on Brazilian products from the current 2.5% to 18%.
For the executive president of the Association of Sugar, Ethanol and Bioenergy Producers (NovaBio), Renato Cunha, the American proposal is a way of pressuring the Brazilian government to revoke the 18% tariff on biofuel exported by the US to the country.
...
“Removing the tax from zero makes no sense, since Brazil, which has a surplus in ethanol production, does not need imported product to supply the domestic market. Furthermore, we export 2.5 billion liters annually. With exportable surpluses, buying ethanol from the US at a reciprocal rate would be unnecessary and burdensome for Brazil’s trade balance,” says the executive.
Effects for the Northeast with ethanol tariff
Cunha states that the Northeast, where the sugarcane industry generates more than 250,000 direct and indirect jobs, would be the most affected by the adoption of this measure. In addition to representing a point of concern in the Brazilian export agenda and bringing unfavorable consequences for Brazil's socioeconomic development, the president of NovaBio assesses other worrying effects in the considered American proposal.
“The US, with an urgent need to decarbonize its economy, should promote the domestic ethanol industry through more constructive public policies. They could, for example, increase the levels of biofuel blending in gasoline, which currently ranges between 10% and 15%, and not subsidize production, as is currently the case, or create even more trade protectionism,” says the president of NovaBio.
The executive points out that the Northeast has also been the main entry point for biofuel exported by the US. “Due to the logistical proximity, even during the sugarcane harvest in the Northeast, the US ends up dumping, when tariffs are reduced, just over 1.6 billion liters of corn ethanol, which is admittedly less sustainable than that produced in Brazil,” notes Cunha, who also chairs the Sugar and Alcohol Industry Union in the State of Pernambuco (Sindaçúcar-PE).
Cunha concludes by citing data from Datagro to measure the effects, specifically in the Northeast, of a relaxation of tariffs by Brazil.
“There is no need for Brazil to import ethanol. On the contrary, we have an export profile. With the exemption, the US, which currently exports less than one billion liters per year, would sell more than 1.6 billion liters to the country. Considering that the region produced around 2.2 billion liters in the 2023/2024 harvest, this imported volume would represent 55% of this production, resulting in huge losses to the competitiveness of the Northeastern industry”, warns the president of NovaBio. READ MORE
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