by Jim Lane (Biofuels Digest) If the clean fuels industry is living through an Alice-in-Wonderland moment, it’s not because things feel fanciful. It’s because the rules keep changing shape just as the clock gets louder.
That was the unspoken theme running through the Clean Fuels Conference this year, where delegates heard repeated variations on the same question: Are we on a storybook cruise — or strapped into a wild ride? The answer, depending on the panel, was usually some version of both.
What made the moment feel surreal wasn’t uncertainty alone. It was scale. The industry may be staring at some of the largest mandated volumes in its history — at the same time it waits, once again, for the rules that determine how, when, and whether those volumes can be met.
A Wild Ride Toward Historic Volumes
The clearest headline came during the federal policy outlook session. After years of incrementalism, the numbers on the table are no longer modest. Clean Fuels leadership, aligned with petroleum stakeholders, originally coalesced around a unified request of 5.25 billion gallons. The response from the Environmental Protection Agency landed higher: 5.61 billion gallons. Panelist Anthony Reed described the proposal as “historic increases,” representing a two-billion-gallon jump over three years.
Kurt Kovarik, Vice President of Federal Affairs, captured the room’s disbelief with a line that rippled through the audience: “Sometimes I think I’m dreaming… but it’s reality.”
The industry has spent years arguing that volumes needed to grow to meet climate and energy security goals. Now, improbably, it may get more than it asked for. And yet — this is Wonderland — the ride doesn’t move until the operator flips the switch.
The Waiting Game
Despite optimism on volumes, the industry remains stuck in a holding pattern. The EPA has missed its statutory deadline, and key decisions remain unresolved. Kovarik estimated that once the White House signals final decisions on Small Refinery Exemptions (SREs) and import accounting, the rule could land within six to eight weeks. All signs point to a final rule in February or early March — but only after those signals are sent.
Until then, the industry waits with engines idling.
Two Mysteries Still Unresolved: SREs and 45Z
Two regulatory choke points continue to define the risk profile.
First: SRE reallocation.
...
Second: the 45Z tax credit.
...
Feedstock Frenzy: “Boom. It’s Done.”
If policy uncertainty sets the mood, feedstocks define the stakes.
The Feedstock Frenzy session exposed the growing tension between volatile global trade and rising domestic capability. Moderated by Alan Weber, the panel brought together voices spanning the supply chain — Restaurant Technologies, StoneX, Corteva, and Fastmarkets — and delivered one consistent message: optionality disappears fast. Ryan Standard offered the session’s most memorable line while describing how tariffs can sever trade flows overnight: “You think this is a business that’s going to continue for a couple of years. Fifty percent tariff. Boom. It’s done.”
Tallow once destined for U.S. markets is rerouted instantly ....
...
And yet, amid the turbulence, the domestic outlook was strikingly confident. One panelist estimated that 4.25 to 4.5 billion gallons of the coming mandate could be met domestically — very easily — without major price ripples. The constraint is not feedstock scarcity so much as timing.
Innovation will have to do the heavy lifting. Chad Edwards highlighted Corteva’s collaboration with Bunge and Chevron to develop winter canola as a rotational crop in the Mid-South — a promising pathway, but one governed by biology, not bureaucracy. These are long cycles of investment, he reminded the room, and they only work with predictable markets. READ MORE
Related articles
- New Analysis: Trump-Era Biofuel Subsidies Drive Big Ag-Big Oil Alliance, Fuel Pollution (Friends of the Earth)
- Biodiesel Faces 9-Month Sprint on RFS -- Trump Administration RFS Decision Could Spark 2-Billion-Gallon Biofuels Rush in 2026 (DTN Progressive Farmer)
- US Biodiesel Industry Eyes Recovery: Biodiesel Poised for Comeback After 'Brutal' Shutdown Wave, CEO Rehagen Says (DTN Progressive Farmer)
- Clean Fuels Conference to Highlight Market Potential, Policy Outlook for Biodiesel, Renewable Diesel and SAF (Clean Fuels Alliance America)
- 2025 positions biodiesel, renewable diesel for success in 2026 (Clean Fuels Alliance America/Biobased Diesel Daily)
- Clean Fuels Conference 2026: Unity Drives Growth, Progress (Clean Fuels Alliance America)
- Biodiesel Faces 9-Month Sprint on RFS: Trump Administration RFS Decision Could Spark 2-Billion-Gallon Biofuels Rush in 2026 (DTN Progressive Farmer)
- Inside the 2026 Clean Fuels Conference (ResourceWise)
- 7 Key Takeaways from the 2026 Clean Fuels Conference (Clean Fuels Conference)
Excerpt from Clean Fuels Alliance America: Leaders from across the biodiesel, renewable diesel and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) value chain will gather next week in Orlando for the 2026 Clean Fuels Conference to examine the state of clean fuels markets, emerging policy dynamics and the technologies driving continued growth.
The Clean Fuels Conference runs Monday through Thursday, Jan. 19-22, at the Orlando World Center Marriott bringing together producers, feedstock suppliers, engine and equipment manufacturers, fuel marketers, policymakers and end users from across the globe.
Mainstage sessions will explore:
- Clean Fuels in a Changing Global Scene: Market trends and outlooks for biodiesel, renewable diesel and SAF in 2026
- Managing Tight Supplies and Tougher Rules for Vegetable Oils, Fats and UCO: Tightening feedstock markets, regulatory pressures and evolving sourcing strategies are shaping the future of biodiesel and renewable diesel production
- Navigating Marine Opportunities: Growing opportunities for clean fuels in the marine sector, driven by rising demand and emerging mandates
- Aligning with the Liquid Fuels Supply Chain: Where clean fuels fit today, where they could grow, and what both sides need to accelerate progress together
- From Field to Fuel Tank: Purpose-driven leadership and coordinated supply chains are advancing clean fuels from farm fields to fuel tanks nationwide
In addition to mainstage programming, conference breakout sessions will offer in-depth discussions on policy, fuel markets and standards, sustainability reporting and regulatory implementation—providing attendees with a comprehensive view of the clean fuels landscape.
The conference will once again feature a Vehicle Showcase, highlighting heavy-duty vehicles, equipment and technologies powered by biodiesel and renewable diesel.
The Clean Fuels Conference is hosted by Clean Fuels Alliance America, the national trade association representing biodiesel, renewable diesel and sustainable aviation fuel. READ MORE
Excerpt from Clean Fuels Alliance America/Biobased Diesel Daily:
BQ-9000
The eighth annual BQ-9000® Biodiesel Quality Report once again demonstrated that accredited producers consistently deliver fuel that exceeds ASTM requirements.
This assurance has helped original-equipment manufacturers (OEMs) and fleets embrace higher blends, from John Deere’s equipment approvals to PepsiCo’s fleet of more than 700 B100-capable assets.
Clean fuels support US economy
Clean Fuels unveiled a new study in 2025 that updated the impact of biodiesel and renewable diesel production on America’s economy.
According to the report, clean fuels support:
-
$42.4 billion in economic activity.
-
107,400 jobs.
-
$6 billion paid in annual wages.
Environmental scoring improves
The environmental impact of soy-based biodiesel was shown to be even better than previous reports.
Argonne National Lab in 2025 updated its GREET model for carbon-intensity (CI) scoring with the latest data on soy production, resulting in a 40 percent decrease in soy biodiesel’s CI score over the past five years.
Clean fuels support soybean demand
All of these factors and more in 2025 set the stage for continued growth in clean-fuel production and use and improved stability for soybean markets and U.S. farmers.
Biodiesel and renewable diesel production represent 10 percent of the value of all soybeans grown in the United States, providing an expanding market for half of all the soybean oil processed domestically.
Today, the industry consumes on average more than 1 billion pounds of soybean oil every month.
Looking ahead, Clean Fuels envisions that by 2030, total biodiesel and renewable diesel use across on-road, off-road, air transportation, electricity generation and home-heating applications will exceed 6 billion gallons, using 18 billion pounds of soybean oil. READ MORE
Excerpt from Clean Fuels Alliance America: The foundation is strong for expansion of biodiesel, renewable diesel and sustainable aviation fuel in the U.S., but to build on the growth of recent years, producers and stakeholders must remain united, Clean Fuels Alliance America CEO Donnell Rehagen told attendees of the Clean Fuels Conference in Orlando this week.
Clean fuel producers persevered through a year that saw slower production amidst unsettled regulation, including questions about 45Z tax credits and the possibility of Renewable Fuel Standard exemptions for small refineries.
But there were also key wins, and the industry can get back on track as positive policy is finalized and put into action this year.
- EPA’s proposed increase in biomass-based diesel (BBD) Renewable Volume Obligations (RVO) of nearly 2 billion gallons for 2026.
- Exclusion of speculative indirect land-use change scores from 45Z tax credits.
- Numerous new opportunities in state-level clean fuel standards.
“We will lean into this moment,” Rehagen said. “The strong RVO proposal, the [indirect land-use change] exclusion, the 45Z tax credit—these aren’t abstractions. They’re our runway. We’ll turn those billions of gallons on paper into actual production, actual jobs, actual impact.”
To achieve this, all producers and stakeholders along the value chain must remain aligned, he said.
“Last year showed us what happens when we set aside some differences and work together. When biodiesel and renewable diesel producers joined forces with oil and gas refiners who’ve invested in our space—and farmers – when we aligned on RVO goals, we saw something powerful emerge. That unity between ag and energy gave us leverage we’ve never had before.”
The conference, held Jan. 19-22, featured sessions covering topics from exports to regulation and feedstocks, to new markets and more.
In addition, several major Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs) and fleets previewed the latest diesel technology and clean fuels innovations in a vehicle showcase on site.
- John Deere, with its Gator XUV and John Deere 6 Series Tractor.
- Caterpillar, with its Cat® 903 Compact Wheel Loader featuring the new Cat C1.7 Tier 4 Final engine.
- Immixt, LLC, with its Immixt Renewable Fuel System, its patented on-vehicle flex fuel diesel technology and cloud-based software, which allows fleets to blend biodiesel with ULSD diesel or renewable diesel onboard their diesel trucks.
- Estes Express Lines with an International LT625 truck from its fleet, equipped with a Cummins X15 diesel engine and the Immixt Renewable Fuel System to operate on biodiesel blends up to B100.
The sessions and vehicles on display showed how progress within the industry and along the transportation network has created momentum for growth.
“We will expand demand,” Rehagen said. “More OEMs approving higher blends. More fleets adopting them. More infrastructure to support them. We’ll keep telling the stories: PepsiCo, John Deere, Pilot, the planes, trains and automobiles — and don’t forget ships and homes — that prove our value isn’t theoretical. It’s real.” READ MORE
Excerpt from DTN Progressive Farmer: Anthony Reed, a partner at FGS Global, said during a panel discussion at the Clean Fuels Alliance America conference here on Tuesday that plants across the country will need to ramp up production in a hurry.
...
"And I think everything we've kind of heard is that they're looking to do a three-year rule the next time to be done with RVOs (renewable volume obligations) for the rest of this administration. ... And we don't have that year delay when a new administration takes hold. So, again, we got to deliver in '26 to be able to set the stage for a next strong RVO."
The latest RFS proposal was required to be finalized by Nov. 1, 2025, but was set back in part by a supplemental rule from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency to potentially reallocate RFS gallons waived through small-refinery exemptions to other obligated parties.
"I do think that EPA very much wants to solve all these questions so that there is certainty in there, so they're willing to take a little bit more time to give everyone more certainty around all these questions," Reed said.
"... We are still waiting for it to go to OMB (White Office of Management and Budget) for interagency review," Reed said. "Kind of what we've been hearing is that the administration needs to make a final decision on how they're going to address the final numbers, what are they going to do on the import RIN (renewable identification numbers), and then what are they going to do on SREs. And once those decisions are made, it's going to have to go to EPA to write it up."
That means a final RFS is likely six to eight weeks away from completion, he said. The Trump EPA has proposed devaluing biofuel renewable identification numbers by 50% for those fuel producers that use feedstocks from foreign countries.
"I continue to be very cautiously optimistic, and things continue to go in and are going in our way," Reed said.
"I think we have an administration that really wants to help on all of these fronts. I hope this is worth the wait. I think it will be."
...
HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE
Kurt Kovarik, vice president of federal affairs for Clean Fuels Alliance America, said that although the wait to see the final RFS volumes has been going on for a while, it is important to remember what is yet to come -- a jump in the biomass-based diesel number from 3.5 billion gallons to at least 5.25 billion gallons.
...
Kovarik said the Trump administration quickly recognized that the three-year RFS set-one proposal that provided a biomass-based diesel volumes increase across three years of 590 million gallons was "woefully insufficient" and led to the "headwinds" the industry has faced.
"But then the second component of that is convincing the political class that this, you know, picking up the mantle of pro-biofuels is worth the fight with the refiners or environmentalists or other stakeholders who've always been opposed to it," Kovarik said.
...
Kovarik said the industry is facing additional headwinds from claims by many petroleum interests and others that fuels like biodiesel are raising the price at the pump.
"While we may feel like we're winning now, we certainly haven't won," Kovarik said. "There's a lot of work that needs to be done and vigilance that needs to be maintained. But the good news is, I think, folks who are trying to address the crisis in the ag economy see the opportunity for biofuels to be a market driver that delivers value and helps alleviate some of that, those economic headwinds."
SMALL-REFINERY EXEMPTIONS PROPOSAL
Exactly what approach the Trump administration decides to take on reallocating volumes from small-refinery exemptions -- whether it's zero reallocation or 100% -- is expected to play a significant role in the future of the biofuels industry.
...
"So, really, the fight that we're arguing about is how much of these SREs from '23 to '25 will be added back into the RVO or not," Reed said.
"We continue to feel very confident that they will continue to estimate SREs for '26 and '27. This is just about making sure we're made whole at the end of the day." READ MORE
Excerpt from ResourceWise:
As the 2026 Clean Fuels Conference wraps up, the mood in the room is clear. This industry is no longer talking about what’s possible, but about what comes next.
Hosted by the Clean Fuels Alliance America, the annual conference brought together producers, marketers, technology providers, farmers, and policymakers to take stock of where clean fuels stand and where they’re headed.
Across mainstage panels, technology showcases, and candid conversations, this year’s event underscored just how quickly clean fuels are moving from niche solutions to critical infrastructure in global energy markets.
A Market Entering Bigger Waters
...
Technology on Display, Progress in Motion
On the show floor, attendees gathered at Conference Central for a firsthand look at heavy-duty equipment and on-road vehicles showcasing the latest diesel technology for 2026. From advanced engines to integrated fuel solutions, the Vehicle Technology Showcase highlighted how innovation is actively enabling greater use of biodiesel and other clean fuels across real-world applications.
...
Feedstocks, Farmers, and the Pressure to Adapt
As clean fuel markets grow, so do the challenges.
Several sessions focused on feedstocks, where tightening margins, rising compliance burdens, and global competition are reshaping sourcing strategies. Producers, marketers, and advocates alike are being forced to navigate a more complex and constrained landscape.
...
Policy Signals and the Road Ahead
The final mainstage discussion brought the regulatory picture into sharp focus.
Clean Fuels COO Doug Whitehead and a panel of experts examined how 45Z, potential changes to the Renewable Fuel Standard, and evolving import rules are already influencing sourcing decisions and future production plans.
Rather than uncertainty alone, the takeaway was one of adaptation. The industry is learning to operate in an environment where policy, markets, and global demand intersect more tightly than ever before.
...
A Milestone Moment for Clean Fuels
More than any single announcement or panel, the 2026 Clean Fuels Conference marked a broader milestone. Clean fuels are no longer framed solely as alternatives or transitional options. They are being treated as durable, scalable solutions delivering real benefits today. READ MORE
Excerpt from ResourceWise: Across policy briefings, technical sessions, and side-room discussions, a few themes surfaced again and again:
-
Optimism Around Near-Term Growth
-
Urgency Around Regulatory Clarity
-
Carbon Intensity, Traceability, and Operational Realities
From renewable diesel and biodiesel to SAF and marine fuels, the conference highlighted both the momentum behind clean fuels and the challenges that still need to be navigated.
Below, we’ve summarized the key takeaways from Clean Fuels Orlando:
-
What industry participants learned
-
What questions remain unresolved
-
What these signals may mean for the year ahead
1. Clean fuels are no longer niche. They’re entering real growth mode.
...
2. Unity across the value chain matters for momentum.
...
3. Policy progress creates both opportunity and challenge.
...
4. Feedstock pressures are real and shaping strategies.
...
5. The marine and SAF sectors are gaining traction.
...
6. Innovation is in motion, with real tech on display.
...
7. Sustainability certification and trust remain priorities.
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