US, EU Officials Disagree on Ethanol's Status in $750bn Energy Trade Deal

Agriculture (USDA)European Union (EU)Federal Agency/Executive Branch Opinions Policy U.S. Trade Representative (USTR)White House

July 29, 2025

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(Quantum Commodity Intelligence) US and EU officials are at odds over whether Sunday's $750 billion energy trade deal would include ethanol, with Americans suggesting Europe will buy the fuel but EU officials denying that is the case.

EU officials told Quantum the recently agreed trade deal with the US would not include provisions for "sensitive agricultural products," such as ethanol, despite a communication from US officials that suggested EU purchases of US ethanol are included in the $750 billion agreement.

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"The president is taking bold action to secure FAIR trade deals for America and our farmers," said US Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins.

"Here's what it means for US ag: 15% tariffs on most European imports and…[the] EU to purchase $750 billion in US energy, including ethanol." EU ethanol associations have said that opening up the bloc to more US ethanol could be damaging to local production, although an EU spokesperson told Quantum that the deal did not include any ethanol provisions. READ MORE

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The EU’s ‘fantasy’ $750B energy promise to Trump: Technical issues, limited U.S. supplies and the EU’s minimal control over imports render the pledge infeasible, experts say. (Politico)
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Excerpt from DTN Progressive Farmer: The Guardian reported, "Agriculture remains protected from U.S. imports that do not comply with EU rules. But the EU has eliminated tariffs on some agrifoods it cannot source itself including some nuts, some processed fish and pet food. It is also increasing the quota on bison allowed into the EU at a favored tariff."

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ETHANOL SALES

The deal includes an agreement for the EU to purchase $750 billion in U.S. energy, including ethanol, over the next three years.

The Renewable Fuels Association and Growth Energy both praised the deal. The U.S. exported $420 million in ethanol to Europe in 2024.

In Europe, reports don't mention ethanol, but focus on more than tripling the imports of U.S. liquified gas and oil. There is also an acknowledgement that EU officials won't be in charge of buying fuel, but may have to offer incentives to help adjust infrastructure to handle a high volume of U.S. imports.

"In practice, experts say it's unworkable. For starters, hitting that target would require the EU to triple its U.S. energy imports, based on last year's figures, while asking American firms to divert all their energy flows worldwide toward the bloc -- and then some," Politico Europe noted. READ MORE

Excerpt from Politico Pro: The EU likely doesn't need $750 billion worth of U.S. energy products and the United States couldn't supply that much to the bloc even if it did, analysts say.

The Trump administration is touting its trade deal requiring the European Union to buy $750 billion worth of U.S. energy products. But the United States doesn't have that much to spare and Europe doesn't really need it.

The White House announced the deal it struck in Scotland after President Donald Trump met with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen requires the EU buy $250 billion in oil, natural gas, uranium and other energy goods a year from the United States over the next three years. That figure ignores the fact that Europe is unlikely to need that much additional energy product or that the United States could even send that much new supply across the Atlantic without stiffing its other customers, market and industry analysts said Monday.

The White House highlighted the energy purchase requirements in its deal announcement, saying in a fact sheet it “will strengthen the United States’ energy dominance, reduce European reliance on adversarial sources, and narrow our trade deficit with the EU.” READ MORE

Excerpt from Renewable Fuels Association: The Renewable Fuels Association today (July 28, 2025) welcomed the announcement by President Trump that a trade agreement has been reached between the United States and the European Union. RFA says the EU trade deal is an important step toward opening the market for lower-cost, American-made renewable fuels in the 27 countries represented by the EU.

“We thank President Donald Trump and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen for reaching this important agreement over the weekend, and we are encouraged to see U.S. ethanol mentioned as part of the deal,” said RFA President and CEO Geoff Cooper, commenting on a social media post by USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins, who noted that the deal includes the purchase of $750 billion in U.S. energy, including ethanol, and would reduce America’s $24 billion agriculture trade deficit with the EU.

“As our nation’s corn growers prepare for what is likely to be a record harvest, we stand ready to produce larger volumes of cleaner-burning ethanol and valuable co-products like distillers grains for customers around the world,” Cooper added. “When markets are open and trade policies are fair, everybody wins. The U.S. ethanol industry looks forward to working with our partners in Europe to continue growing the global production and use of renewable fuels, which are simply more reliable and more affordable than many other energy alternatives.”

The European Union has been a major importer of U.S. ethanol in recent years, ranking third with 197 million gallons imported last year. The EU’s 2024 imports of U.S. ethanol represented a 54 percent increase over 2023. When it comes to distillers grains, the EU ranked sixth last year, purchasing 684 million metric tons of U.S. product, 46 percent above the prior year. READ MORE

Excerpt from Successful Farming: Growth Energy As the nation’s largest biofuel trade association, Growth Energy is the leading voice of America’s biofuel industry. Members of the association operate and support biomanufacturing facilities at the heart of America’s bioeconomy, delivering a new generation of plant-based energy and climate solutions.

Growth Energy praised the trade deal, highlighting the agreement included that the EU would purchase “$750 billion in U.S. energy, including American-made ethanol.”

Applauding the administration for “putting rural America first in their trade negotiations,” Growth Energy CEO Emily Skor said, “This latest trade deal with the EU will deliver concrete benefits to the American ethanol industry and to the rural communities it supports. It has the potential to unleash a new era of transatlantic trade partnerships and to enhance what’s already one of the ethanol industry’s strongest trade relationships. We look forward to learning more details about how this agreement addresses the tariff and non-tariff trade barriers that will allow the U.S. ethanol industry to build on the $420 million we exported to the EU in 2024.” READ MORE

Excerpt from Politico: The headline figure is “completely unrealistic,” said gas expert Laura Page, a senior analyst at the Kpler commodities firm. “The numbers are just beyond wild.”

The EU has increasingly ramped up liquefied natural gas (LNG) purchases from the U.S. following supply cutoffs linked to Moscow’s all-out invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Trump, meanwhile, has long touted increased energy sales as a key demand for easing trade tensions with the bloc.

“Purchases of U.S. energy products will diversify our sources of supply and contribute to Europe’s energy security,” European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said Sunday, noting the move would also help the bloc with its ongoing effort to “replace Russian gas and oil with significant purchases of U.S. LNG, oil and nuclear fuels.”

“We are ready to go for those purchases,” EU trade chief Maroš Šefčovič echoed on Monday. “We believe these numbers are achievable.”

The problem is that not everyone is convinced the numbers add up.

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At the same time, the U.S. only sent $166 billion in oil and gas abroad last year, Page explained, meaning it would have to divert all its exports to the EU — and then some. That’s “just never going to happen,” she said, especially as U.S. LNG exports are not tied to a single destination and usually go to the highest bidder worldwide.

That’s not the only technical difficulty. The EU currently buys 12 percent of its oil and fuel from the U.S., according to Homayoun Falakshahi, head of crude analysis at Kpler. This figure could be raised to a ceiling of 14 percent, given that EU refineries can only handle limited shares of America’s specific blend of oil. “It really is a fantasy,” he said.

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A senior Commission official also stated that the deal would be contingent upon specific “circumstances,” such as sufficient LNG infrastructure in Europe and “shipping capacity on the U.S. side.”

But the numbers are not “taken out of thin air,” insisted the official, granted anonymity to speak freely about the deal. “This is based on analysis of what our needs are.”

Another challenge is how Brussels would facilitate those purchases, given that it plays no role in buying cargoes itself. READ MORE

Excerpt from ePURE/Ethanol Producer Magazine: According to several media reports, EU officials have confirmed that ethanol is not included in the scope of the 28 July EU-US trade agreement. Likewise ethanol is not mentioned in either the White House fact sheet or the European Commission fact sheet on the deal. This is a clear recognition of the strategic importance of EU renewable ethanol production.

As the details of the political agreement are worked out, the EU must remain committed to safeguarding its strategically important industries, including the European renewable ethanol sector.

The 50 ethanol biorefineries around Europe are an important strategic asset to EU energy independence, food security, industrial autonomy and transport decarbonisation. EU renewable ethanol production ensures a vital market for European farmers, who are already under intense pressure from trade agreements with countries where producers benefit from laxer environmental standards and cheaper labour costs.

Similarly, EU renewable ethanol producers already face higher energy costs – as much as ten times what US producers pay – and stricter sustainability criteria than their US counterparts, who also benefit from state support and tax credits.

Renewable ethanol from ePURE members and other EU producers reduced GHG emissions by an average of 79% compared to fossil fuels in 2024, according to newly certified data, with some companies reaching even 95% to 100% GHG emissions savings.

By contrast the US just barely meets the minimum emissions reduction requirements under the EU Renewable Energy Directive. It makes no sense for the EU to want to import a product that has a lower emission-savings performance and higher carbon footprint, especially when considering additional emissions from transporting it to the EU.

European ethanol producers remain committed to helping the EU achieve its important goals for energy independence, food security, climate change mitigation and industrial and agricultural autonomy. We will be vigilant in working with EU officials to ensure that the European ethanol industry remains viable. READ MORE