Trump’s Rural Edge Shrinks with Enthusiasm Fading in Key States

October 26, 2020

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by Mike Dorning (Bloomberg) Surveys show Trump’s margin fading versus 2016 exit polls; Biden campaign making efforts to play for rural votes -- The big margin of support among rural voters that helped Donald Trump secure victory four years ago is looking less firm in 2020 with the potential to shift the outcomes in key battleground states.

Joe Biden, the Democratic nominee, is nowhere near winning the rural areas of the country, where roads are lined with Trump-Pence lawn signs and barn banners and campaign flags flutter from pickup trucks. READ MORE

Survey Finds Issues Vex Rural America: DTNPF Poll Finds Trump's Job Approval Sits at 53% in Rural America (DTN Progressive Farmer)

Trump wrong on wind, just like ethanol, say Iowa Democrats (Fern's Ag Insider)

In Omaha rally, Trump makes appeal for ‘great red wave’ (Radio Iowa)

Fact check: President Trump's rally in Omaha (Omaha World-Herald; includes VIDEO)

Excerpt from DTN Progressive Farmer: Farmers have been willing to give him space on trade. But there are issues floating around out there that either Trump or his successor ignore at their peril.

A DTN/Progressive Farmer Zogby Analytics Election poll found that 53% of adult rural Americans approved of the president's work, including his handling of the coronavirus outbreak.

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But this poll also showed indecision and dissatisfaction in rural America. Eleven percent of rural adults are undecided about their choice for president. Forty-two percent of rural residents and farmers strongly or somewhat disapproved of the president's job performance. More rural adults (39%) told the poll that agriculture is worse off than it was four years ago. Twenty-three percent said it is better. A pretty strong 17% are riding the fence as undecided.

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As rural adults vote, three issues most influence them in local, state and national elections in 2020. Sixty-two percent said the strength of the economy is most important, 48% said health care and 39% said gun rights/protection of the Second Amendment.

The economy is especially prioritized by Republicans (74% considered it an important issue) and Southern adults (67%).

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Health care (64%) is the top issue for rural Democrats, the only adult demographic group where health care has a significant edge over other issues. Rural Democrats are also the only demographic group where climate change is one of their top issues (48% considered it important, compared to 27% overall).

Rural Americans are divided when asked whether the country is heading in the right direction.

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Fifty-six percent of farming adults believe Trump's emphasis on trade negotiations with China and the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) has led to higher income potential for their farm operations.

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DTN/Progressive Farmer/Zogby asked rural adults and farmer about insurance, specifically if farmers and rural adults have adequate outlets to purchase health insurance for an affordable cost. On that question, a slim majority, 51% of farmers and rural adults strongly/somewhat agreed, while 35.6% somewhat/strongly disagreed.

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Further refining that division over healthcare insurance, 43% strongly/somewhat agreed The Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act should be repealed. Thirty-five percent somewhat/strongly disagreed.

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DTN/Progressive Farmer/Zogby asked farmers to respond to this statement: "My operation would benefit from a program or market that pays farmers for sequestering carbon in the soil." Fifty-eight percent strongly/somewhat agreed, while 26% somewhat/strongly disagreed.

The poll asked if weather patterns had changed on their farms and if the impact has been negative or positive. Fifty-eight percent strongly/somewhat agreed weather patterns had changed. Thirty-seven percent somewhat/strongly disagreed.

Of those saying there had been changes in weather on their farms, 29% of farmers and ranchers said the changes have been positive; 47% said negative and 24% are not sure. Farmers in the West generally feel better about changes in local weather patterns than farmers in the Central Great Lakes region.

For more on the DTN/Progressive Farmer Zogby Analytics Election poll, visit: https://www.dtnpf.com/…. READ MORE

Excerpt from Radio Iowa: “Who’s from Iowa?” Trump said, getting a level of cheer that far eclipsed by the roar when he asked: “Who’s from Omaha?” Trump told the crowd, “we would be in Iowa soon.”

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As he did during a Des Moines rally earlier this month, Trump mentioned the $28 billion in federal payments his administration has forwarded to farmers to make up for lost trade. Trump touted ethanol, too.

“As president, I will also defend ethanol, OK? All right? Does Nebraska like ethanol, too, by the way?” Trump said, and the crowd cheered. “OK, good. I need that little assurance.” READ MORE

Excerpts from Omaha World-Herald: On ethanol -- Trump said: “(The Green New Deal) would wipe out the ethanol industry, Joni. It would totally wipe out that industry. We worked hard on that industry and they’re now in good shape. … As president I will always defend ethanol.”

The facts: Some Green New Deal backers have talked about phasing out fuel-based vehicles, but others have argued that ambitious environmental proposals can be pursued while making agriculture a profitable part of the solution. The Trump administration also has had a mixed record when it comes to ethanol. The industry rejoiced greatly when the administration approved the year-round sale of the ethanol blend known as E15, for example. But the administration also generously granted refineries a large number of waivers to federal ethanol mandates. Those waivers undermine demand for the biofuel. READ MORE