by Cole Martin (Argus Media) ... The Inflation Reduction Act's "45Z" tax credit, starting in January, will offer greater federal subsidies to fuels that produce fewer emissions. The Biden administration could issue long-awaited guidance spelling out how the government will calculate carbon intensities for different fuels and feedstocks, but that might just delay the inevitable. A Republican-controlled Congress could use the Congressional Review Act next year to repeal any guidance lawmakers see as too restrictive to farmers, and a Trump administration will regardless be able to develop new rules that reprioritize which companies benefit from the credit.
Republicans could focus on imported feedstocks, which have surged in recent years as refiners cashed in on state clean fuel incentives by sourcing waste feedstocks primarily from Asia and South America. Farm groups, fearing that ample supply of foreign used cooking oil and tallow is curbing demand for domestic biofuel feedstocks like soybean oil, have pushed for the US government to restrict refiners using foreign feedstocks from claiming 45Z.
An outright ban has legal risks, but Trump officials could think more creatively around deterring feedstock imports – potentially through guidance that is generous to crop-based fuels or that imposes carbon penalties on feedstocks that travel long distances to reach the US. Expected tariff hikes on foreign imports could alone curb demand for global biofuel feedstocks, with Chinese used cooking oil a likely target. But products like Brazilian tallow and Canadian canola oil potentially could be affected as well.
Congress could also complicate the tax picture before Trump takes office. Senator Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) said before the election Tuesday that he expects a proposal to extend the $1/USG blenders tax credit for biomass-based diesel another year to feature in an end-of-year package. Current bill language would not repeal 45Z but would allow fuel to claim whichever incentive offers the larger benefit, likely boosting crop-based diesels set to earn much less than $1/USG under 45Z.
There is no guarantee a lame duck Congress will take up such a proposal, especially with various other policy priorities on lawmakers' agendas. But expiring biofuel credits could feature in negotiations, including a blenders credit for sustainable aviation fuel and a credit that benefits cellulosic ethanol producers, biofuel lobbyists said.
A potential vehicle for longer-lasting policy changes is an expected fight in Congress next year over tax policy. Republicans, hoping to pay for extending Trump-era tax cuts that would otherwise expire, could do so by repealing Inflation Reduction Act incentives. But farm state lawmakers, especially in a House of Representatives that looks like it will be closely contested between Republicans and Democrats, would also have leverage to push for some federal biofuel incentives to remain, even if they look different than the current 45Z mechanism.
Importantly too, the 45Z incentive is set to expire after 2027. Whether details are hashed out in Congress this year, next year, or afterwards, Trump and his allies will be able to tie any credit extension to desired policy objectives. There are two bills in Congress that would extend the credit into the 2030s, but the only one with Republican support bars foreign feedstocks from qualifying.
Federal momentum around boosting biofuels in a second Trump term will also depend on how policies beyond tax credits develop. Increasingly ambitious state climate policies – such as California's low-carbon fuel standard, which could be made more stringent this week – could keep planned renewable diesel and sustainable aviation fuel capacity additions on track.
At the same time, retaliatory tariffs from China could hurt farmers more than higher domestic biofuel sector demand helps. And Trump could use planned updates to federal renewable fuel blend mandates to either assuage biofuel producers struggling to plan around policy uncertainty or to lower compliance costs for oil groups that strongly backed his candidacy. READ MORE
- What Trump’s victory could mean for oil companies and climate change policy -- Trump’s plans have the potential to send fossil fuel companies’ profits soaring while threatening the world’s climate goals. (Washington Post)
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Ethanol groups congratulate Trump, pledge to work with his administration to expand biofuel use (Ethanol Producer Magazine)
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US farmers back Trump but face pain from China tariff threats (Reuters)
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Trump victory ushers in ag trade uncertainty (Argus Media)
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Experts: Trump presidency could benefit Detroit automakers, but cost car buyers more (Detroit Free Press)
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The Democratic Party is now Gavin Newsom’s to lead. Does he have what it takes? If Newsom wants to have any kind of impact at the national level, he will need to do far more than cast himself as the leader of the anti-Trump resistance (San Francisco Chronicle)
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US RFS, RIN markets face uncertainty under Trump (Argus Media)
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With Donald Trump Victory, Here Are His Energy and Climate Positions (Cipher News/Transport Energy Strategies)
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Election reflection: Bioeconomy Buys, Sells and Holds for the next four years (Biofuels Digest)
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The future of key agriculture IRA provisions under Trump 2.0 (Agri-Pulse)
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Biofuels industry hopes for year-round E15, improved 45z tax rule (KXEL; includes AUDIO)
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Ethanol Report Election Analysis (Energy.AgWired.com)
- California Air Resources Board approves controversial emissions program changes that could raise gas prices (CBS News)
Excerpt from Washington Post: “Probably the most likely potential secretary of energy is ... Doug Burgum of North Dakota, and there are many reasons why,” Menezes said on a Wednesday call organized by the law and lobbying firm Bracewell LLP. “Obviously North Dakota is an oil-and-gas-producing state ... [and] you get a lot of skill sets when you bring a former governor to head an agency.”
...
Under Biden, the United States has produced record amounts of oil, but it had also positioned itself as a climate leader.
...
Policymakers also expressed optimism that cheap, renewable technologies would be able to displace fossil fuels simply on economic grounds. READ MORE
Excerpt from Ethanol Producer Magazine: “President Trump has championed consumer access to American-made, lower-cost ethanol options at the pump and has expanded markets for U.S. ethanol,” said Emily Skor, CEO of Growth Energy. “We look forward to working with the Trump-Vance administration to deliver on American energy dominance, consumer savings, and booming rural economies – starting with year-round access to E15. During his first term, President Trump delivered on E15 to bring lower cost fuel to American consumers, and we support him enacting a permanent solution that will deliver continued savings at the pump for all Americans, all months, across all 50 states.
“We stand ready to partner with President Trump and his administration to unlock markets for American biofuels abroad, allow private investments in the rural economy to soar, and harness American-led innovations in aviation and clean energy production,” Skor added.
The IRFA (Iowa Renewable Fuels Association) said it looks forward to working with Trump in prioritizing American energy dominance in support of rural farmers across the nation.
“IRFA members congratulate Donald Trump on being reelected president and look forward to partnering with President Trump and his administration to get the rural economy back on track,” said Monte Shaw, executive director of the IRFA. “The best way to boost farm income and grow rural America is to boost demand for American biofuels.
“Just days before the election, President Trump stated: ‘I love the farmers, and they love me.’ And the election results clearly show that after an unprecedented two-year drop in farm income, rural America and farmers put their faith in President Trump to turn this around,” Shaw continued. “There is much President Trump can do during his first 100 days to help farmers and biofuels producers, including nationwide, year-round E15 and providing clarity on energy incentives for biodiesel producers.
“There is much more to be done to enable biofuels to help power American energy dominance and, at the same time, make the rural economy great again,” he added. “IRFA members stand ready to partner with President Trump to get it done.” READ MORE
Excerpt from Detroit Free Press: For example, he is expected to ease some of the environmental regulations that have pressured the Detroit Three to make a fast push toward EV adoption.
But it's a mixed bag because Trump has also set his sights on scaling back or eliminating EV initiatives. Auto analysts said it would be difficult for him to completely gut President Joe Biden's Inflation Reduction Act initiatives, but through executive orders, Trump could defund or limit some of the EV subsidies included there. Many parts of the IRA, such as expanding EV charger infrastructure, were in place to help the Detroit Three encourage EV adoption.
...
Trump has promised to scale back or eliminate many of the Environmental Protection Agency's emissions standards as well as incentives to promote production and adoption of EVs. Some experts said less regulation would ease carmakers' costs.
...
Under Trump, Ives (Dan Ives, managing director and senior equity analyst at Wedbush Securities) agreed there will be less pressure for GM, Ford and Stellantis — which makes Chrysler, Dodge, Jeep, Ram and Fiat brands — to continue pursuing a speedy EV transition. But while tariffs will keep the Chinese out, tariffs also complicate the supply chain of auto parts imported to the states.
...
One of the first things Trump will likely do is revoke the $7,500 EV tax credit offered to buyers of EVs, Wedbush's Ives said. That would not only be "a gut punch to the EV initiatives" of the Detroit Three, but it would give EV-sales leader Tesla an advantage. Tesla, led by Trump ally Elon Musk, does not need the tax credit as much as GM and Ford does, Ives said, because Tesla has the sales volume to lower prices and other cost advantages.
...
Trump has said he won't allow California to require that all vehicles in the state go electric in a decade. With Trump's pal Musk running the world's most valuable EV company, Trump's anti-EV stance might soften.
"A rising tide raises all boats. So to the extent that Elon is able to hamper the vilification of EVs by a potential Trump administration, all the better," James Chen, former head of policy for Rivian and Tesla, told Reuters.
...
Trump has made it clear that he wants to reduce or cut vehicle electrification mandates, saying consumers should drive the market. Masters predicts that a major shift will occur in policy, but it will give automakers more flexibility in transitioning to EVs.
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Michael Brooks, executive director of the nonprofit Center for Auto Safety, which advocates for improved vehicle safety and fuel efficiency, said he expects the auto industry will be pleased with what is likely on the way at the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration.
"...Also likely would be attempted rollbacks of fuel economy standards and electric vehicle policy.” READ MORE
Excerpt from San Francisco Chronicle: He will need to redefine what it means to be a Democrat and how the country perceives his party. … Newsom is already trying to blunt the financial impact of these policies, issuing an executive order that directs state agencies to do as much as they can to bring down utility bills and calling for the accelerated study of a higher-ethanol gasoline blend that studies suggest could save customers money at the pump. READ MORE
Excerpt from Argus Media: Renewable identification number (RIN) credit prices ticked up slightly today following the re-election of Donald Trump and a likely Republicans control of the US Senate, but uncertainty remains for other biofuel-related markets and policies.
An increase in tariffs under Trump or other policy changes to deter biofuel feedstock imports could lower the availability of renewable fuels next year. Biomass-based diesel D4 and ethanol D6 RIN credits, which make up more than 90pc of all RINs generated on a monthly basis, rose slightly early Wednesday, following upward pressure from a rise in soybean oil futures.
The soybean oil-heating oil (BOHO) spread rose to its highest level recorded in 2024 at $1.21/USG on Wednesday. RIN prices for current year D4 and D6 rose to 70.75¢/RIN, with both posting 2.5¢/RIN in gains on the day.
While farm state lawmakers in both chambers are likely to resist any Trump efforts to repeal biofuels incentives, long-term prospects for the Inflation Reduction Act's "45Z" credit set to kick off in January are now uncertain. The incentive ends at the end of 2027, which gives Trump and his Republican allies substantial negotiating power over the terms of any extension — such as barring refiners from using foreign feedstocks.
The election results also mean a Trump administration will have the power to set new biofuel blend mandates under the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) for 2026 and subsequent years. The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) during Trump's first term tried to strike a balance between refiner and biofuel interests, setting increasing volume mandates but issuing more waivers from program obligations.
While a second Trump term could be similar, regulators under the program's "set authority" now have more discretion to weigh various economic and environmental factors when setting volumes instead of tracking mandated volumes that lapsed after 2022. Federal judges weighing EPA's authority under this new phase of the program last week expressed concern about some of the agency's decision-making, meaning any court order to rethink or reset volumes would now fall to a Trump administration.
...
From 2017-2021, the first Trump administration dialed back environmental regulations and more generously doled out SREs.
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A Trump administration could be more sensitive to future industry requests to relax these requirements and could set less ambitious cellulosic targets for future blend mandates. READ MORE
Excerpt from Biofuels Digest: Plus, there’s the Two Trump Paths. This could be a straightforward Trump Administration playbook of isolationism, protectionism, nativism, low taxes, government hallways emptied of regulators. Or, it could be a revenge tour.
For Democrats, hard thinking ahead. The brand’s not connecting, turnout was light. A new mix is needed, and the party better look at trade.
Be interesting how the lame duck session goes. It’s the last meaningful opportunity for the forces of the left for four long years. GOP legislator support will come at a high-price, since they will take control of the Senate and White House in the New Year, and likely retain the House. Some farm-state legislators or GOP moderates may see tactical opportunities for projects or programs of local or regional benefit, and Democrats will be motivated negotiators. READ MORE
Excerpt from CBS News: The Trump administration in 2019 revoked California's ability to enforce its own tailpipe emissions standards. President Joe Biden later restored the state's authority, which was upheld in federal court.
Future challenges from the Trump administration could lead to long court battles, said David Pettit, a senior attorney with the Center for Biological Diversity's Climate Law Institute. READ MORE
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