The Year Ahead: What’s in Store for Consumer Diesel Vehicles and Diesel Fuel Prices?

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January 10, 2023

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by Allen Schaeffer (Diesel Technology Forum) … Diesel drivers have choices about fueling their vehicles. All diesel models available today are certified by manufacturers as capable of using B20 fuels – (20% biodiesel/80% ultra-low sulfur petroleum diesel). According to the U.S. Department of Energy Alternative Fuels Data center there are more than 800 retail stations selling biodiesel across the country.

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Recent studies by the Clean Fuels Alliance America showed that the US production of biodiesel and renewable diesel consistently reduces distillate fuel prices by increasing the supply. As the production and availability of cleaner, better fuels grew over the last decade, the price impact increased to a 4% benefit in 2020 and 2021, keeping diesel fuel prices lower at the pump.

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Renewable Biodiesel Fuels

The role of renewable biodiesel fuels is growing, as a key strategy to help decarbonize the transportation sector. Necessary to achieve that is more investment in feedstocks and refining capacity to produce the high-quality renewable diesel fuels. The global renewable diesel market by production has reached 2.61 billion gallons in 2021. The market is expected to reach 7.45 billion gallons per year by 2027.

According to the EIA, biodiesel production averaged about 0.123 million barrels per day in 2022 and is expected to expand to 0.128 million barrels per day in 2023. Biodiesel net imports are expected to average 0.003 million barrels per day in 2022 and 2023, up from 0.001 million barrels per day in 2021. The EIA also forecasts that at the end of 2022, more renewable diesel fuel would be produced than conventional biodiesel fuels. Using the same feedstocks, biodiesel and renewable diesel are processed in different ways, resulting in renewable diesel fuel – sometimes referred to as hydrogenated vegetable oil or HVO – having key properties essentially identical to petroleum diesel fuel, making it a drop-in replacement at any blend percentage. Depending on feedstocks, using advanced renewable biodiesel fuels instead of petroleum-based fuels lowers greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by anywhere from 50 to 85%, along with reductions in other emissions like particulates as well. READ MORE

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