The EV Transition Explained

May 03, 2023

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by Robert N. “Bob” Charette (IEEE Spectrum) ... Two years ago, I began investigating the veracity of claims surrounding the transition to EVs at scale. The result is a 12-part series and e-book, The EV Transition Explained, that explores the tightly woven technological, policy, and social issues involved. The articles are based on scores of interviews I conducted with managers and engineers in the auto and energy industries, as well as policy experts, academic researchers, market analysts, historians, and EV owners. I also reviewed hundreds of reports, case studies, and books surrounding EVs and electrical grids.

What I found is an intricately tangled web of technological innovation, complexity, and uncertainty, combined with equal amounts of policy optimism and dysfunction. These last two rest on rosy expectations that the public will quietly acquiesce to the considerable disruptions that will inevitably occur in the coming years and decades. The transition
to EVs is going to be messier, more expensive, and take far longer than the policymakers who are pushing it believe.

Scaling is hard

LET ME BE VERY CLEAR: Transitioning to electric vehicles and renewable energy to combat climate change are valid goals in themselves. Drastically reducing our fossil-fuel use is key to realizing those goals. However, attempting to make such transitions at scale in such a short period is fraught with problems, risks, and unanticipated consequences that need honest and open recognition so they can be actively and realistically addressed. Going to scale means not only manufacturing millions of EVs per year but supporting them from recharging to repair.

A massive effort will be needed to make this happen.

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However, shifting a 125-year-old auto industry that’s optimized for ICE-vehicle production to EVs using nascent
technology is a monumental challenge in itself. Requiring that automakers do so in 15 years or less is even more daunting, although part of it is their own doing by not recognizing earlier thatEVs might be a threat to their business
models. EVs require automakers and their suppliers to reinvent their supply chains, hire employees with new software, battery, and mechatronic skill sets, and retrain or else lay off workers whose outdated skills are no longer needed.

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The articles in the series address different aspects of this transition, including EV-related unemployment, battery issues, the EV charging infrastructure, and affordability. One not entirely surprising finding is that the traditional automakers are electrifying their offerings while also squeezing the last bit of profit from their gas guzzlers. That is, they are introducing less-expensive EV models, but their main thrust is still on producing profitable luxury EV models that are well beyond the means of the average household while also pushing sales of profitable fossil-fuel-powered SUVs.

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EVs are not by themselves in any way going to achieve the goal of net-zero by 2050.

There are two major reasons for this: First, EVs are not going to reach the numbers required by 2050 to hit their needed contribution to net-zero goals. Second, even if there are the requisite number of EVs on the road, a host of other personal, social, and economic activities must be modified to reach the total net-zero mark.

For instance, Alexandre Milovanoff, formerly at the University of Toronto and currently a policy analyst with the Canadian government, demonstrated in his research that the United States must have 90 percent of its vehicles, or some 350 million EVs, on the road by 2050 in order to hit its emission targets. The likelihood of this occurring is infinitesimal. Some estimates indicate that about 40 percent of vehicles on U.S. roads will be ICE vehicles in 2050, while others are less than half that figure.

For the United States to hit the 90 percent EV target, sales of all new ICE vehicles across the United States must cease by 2038 at the latest, according to research company BloombergNEF. Greenpeace, on the other hand, argues that sales of all diesel and petrol vehicles, including hybrids, must end by 2030 to meet such a target. However, achieving either goal would likely require governments offering hundreds of billions of dollars, if not trillions, in EV subsidies to ICE owners over the next decade, not to mention significant investments in EV charging infrastructure and the electrical grid. ICE vehicle households would also have to be convinced that they would not be giving up activities by becoming EV-only households.

As a reality check, current estimates for the number of ICE vehicles still on the road worldwide in 2050 range from a low of 1.25 billion to more than 2 billion.

Even assuming that the required EV targets were met in the United States and elsewhere, it still will not be sufficient
to meet net-zero 2050 emission targets. Transportation accounts for only 27 percent of greenhouse-gas emissions (GHG) in the United States; the sources of the other 73 percent of GHG emissions must be reduced as well.
Even in the transportation sector, more than 12 percent of the GHG emissions are created by air and rail travel and shipping. These will also have to be decarbonized.

Nevertheless, for EVs themselves to become true zero-emission vehicles, everything in their supply chain, from mining to electricity production, must be nearly net-zero emission as well. Today, depending on the EV model, where it charges, and assuming it is a battery electric and not a hybrid vehicle, it may need to be driven anywhere from 8,400 to 13,500 miles, or, controversially, significantly more to generate less GHG emissions than an ICE vehicle. This is due to the 30 to 40 percent increase in emissions EVs create in comparison to manufacturing an ICE vehicle, mainly from its battery production. READ MORE

Contents

Preface: The Staggering Scale of the EV Transition
Introduction: The EV Transition Is Harder Than Anyone Thinks
Chapter 1: Overview
Chapter 2: Battery Challenges
Chapter 3: Can the Grid Cope?
Chapter 4: Charger Infrastructure
Chapter 5: Creating a Market for EVs
Chapter 6: Convincing Consumers to Buy EVs
Chapter 7: Local Policies Shape Global Competition
Chapter 8: The Carrot or the Stick?
Chapter 9: Policy Roadblocks
Chapter 10: Reshaping Labor Markets
Chapter 11: Why EVs Aren’t a Climate Change Panacea
Chapter 12: The Aftershocks of the EV Transition Could Be Ugly READ MORE

Survey Finds Growing Portion of U.S. Shoppers Are Rejecting EVs: (Green Car Reports)

Xcel asks to withdraw Minn. EV charging proposal ... after Minnesota regulators shaved millions of dollars off an electric rate increase the company requested. (Politico Pro Energywire)

Excerpt from Green Car Reports: Despite strong EV sales growth, the ratio of U.S. car shoppers uninterested in buying an EV is increasing, according to a new J.D. Power survey.

"Top-line metrics on overall EV market share, availability and affordability have been on a long-term upward trend," J.D. Power said in a statement, "but beneath those headline numbers we are starting to see some consumer behaviors that suggest a possible bifurcation of the automotive marketplace."

J.D. Power's data show the number of shoppers "very unlikely" to consider an EV purchase in the next 12 months reached 21% in March. That's up 2% from the month before and the highest "very unlikely" response J.D. Power had ever seen.

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Price and charging were the biggest reasons survey respondents rejected EVs. Of those "very unlikely" and "somewhat unlikely" to consider an EV, 49% cited both "lack of charging station availability" and "purchase price" as reasons for their disinterest in EVs. "Limited driving distance per charge" and "time required to charge" were also frequently cited, with 43% and 41% of respondents, respectively, listing them as factors in avoiding an EV purchase.

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On charging, J.D. Power has found in previous studies that customers are much more satisfied with the Tesla Supercharger network, although they've soured a bit with home charging due to surging home electricity prices, mainly in the Northeast. READ MORE