The Bright Future for the Internal Combustion Engine
by Bob Stanton (Government Fleet) … To paraphrase Mark Twain, “The presumptions of the death of the ICE are greatly exaggerated.” The ICE will be with us for decades to come and may never disappear from our landscape.
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The information here is not meant to counter or ignore the arguments for electrifying some government vehicles; instead, it is intended to remind and reinforce the fact that ICE-powered vehicles will continue to dominate transportation sectors of all stripes for decades to come, including, of course, government fleets.
Yes, it is hard to ignore news that London and other cities in Europe may ban fossil-fueled vehicles in 2040, or that Kansas City’s city manager announced all fleet vehicles must be fully electric where available, or that New York City is transitioning to an all-electric road fleet by 2040. Governments are great copycats, and some may/will ask, “If they can do it, why can’t we?” The real question, however, is whether they can indeed pull it off or instead be forced to consider alternatives. In Kansas City’s case, its own “where available” language may be its escape clause.
With today’s current and future vehicle offerings, the ICE is indeed the best and only alternative available for most mission profiles and is becoming consistently more efficient every year.
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It may surprise you to learn (unless you either live in or are downwind from California) that the largest source of carbon emissions is not vehicles, but wildfires (43%).
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Investments in ICEs Continue
What gets practically zero press are the billions of dollars being invested right now in new ICE technology. Here are some examples:
- The U.S. Army has given millions to Achates Power for the continued development of its three-cylinder, six opposed piston, twin crankshaft, two-stroke engine design.
- Many OEMs are either developing, or have in production, cylinder deactivation and fuel management systems that boost fuel economy, some by 12%. Similar systems are proposed for heavy-duty truck diesel engines too.
- Cummins, Volvo, and Westport are all working on hydrogen-fueled ICEs.
These are just three examples. Your own cursory research efforts will reveal considerably more new technologies on the horizon. The inherent energy-density advantage of gasoline over batteries combined with the efficiency-boosting technologies we have witnessed in recent years, along with the longevity of the ICE over current battery life expectations, all render the benefits of the ICE hard to ignore.
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Remember the Limitations of EVs
Although automakers worldwide are embracing an electrified future, based on the development reality of today’s marketplace, battery-powered EVs remain confined to significant range restrictions; uncertain resale profiles; a planned obsolescence of powertrain (battery) life; dependence on the lithium battery whose future, as resources may be limited, seems questionable; concerns over the impact of millions of exhausted batteries as they are added to the waste stream; and even the ability of the nationwide power grid to provide adequate recharge voltage as the population of EVs grows.
It should be noted that for government fleets, only a few full EV models could pass critical public scrutiny. While it might be presumed by their prevalence in the trade press that EV model accessibility is broad and wide, the reality is most full EVs on the market today are marketed to a higher-end EV consumer rather than to fleets.
Full EV offerings from Tesla, Volvo, Audi, Volkswagen, and Porsche, as well as Ford’s Mustang Mach-E, are all outside the procurement spectrum of most government buyers. This leaves only the Chevrolet Bolt and the Nissan Leaf as likely government EV models of choice.
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Further, the $/c (cost per copy) of EV acquisition is not competitive with comparably sized ICE models. And while many cite the reduced costs of EV maintenance — clearly a true benefit and attractive reality in offsetting costs — few if any fleets factor in or include the costs of infrastructure acquisition and deployment in their total cost of ownership calculations. Infrastructure costs can be considerable both in charging station acquisition and installation and in facility modifications to accommodate the stations.
The largest unknown element is EV resale value. Will the used vehicle buyer want an EV equipped with a battery pack of unknown remaining life? Instead of rotating a used EV from the fleet, will it make greater economic sense to replace the battery and retain the vehicle for another full lifecycle? Would it make economic sense to replace the battery pack in the old EV prior to placing it for sale to make it more attractive to the used vehicle buyer? These and other EV replacement answers will become clear as first-generation EVs reach the end of their initial lifecycles. READ MORE
Excerpt from Express: Ranjit Singh, 63, bought the second-hand Mercedes Benz hybrid car four years ago, believing its lower CO2 emissions meant it was greener than the alternatives. The motorist, from Knighton, Leicester, bought it for £27,000 at a Mercedes Benz dealership.
But Ranjit learnt this week the battery had come to the end of its life after just eight years of motoring.
He claims he was quoted £15,000 for a battery replacement – excluding labour costs which he was quoted would be roughly around £200 an hour.
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“I’m horrified by what has happened. I feel I now have just two options – scrap the eight-year-old car or spend more than it is worth.
“We checked on Auto Trader and it says the car value now stands at just £12,850.”
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“We also looked online at Mercedes-Benz forums, and found a lot of people facing the same issues. I fear this is only going to get worse,” the motorist said.
His daughter Ramnik Kaur, who works in the motoring industry herself, said: “Dad is very disappointed, stressed and doesn’t know what to do with the car. As a a retired person, he doesn’t have that kind of money.
“Any reasonable person wouldn’t expect a car that costs £27,000 would have a battery that would die after eight years.
“It almost feels like mis-selling on Mercedes’ part. Had we known this expense was possible at the outset, he would not have purchased it in the first place.
“This information is not readily available and I’ve only found people discussing it in online forums.” READ MORE
