by Jim Lane (Biofuels Digest) ... What are the top trends? Here are the 11 we see dominating the debate on the stage and on the floor.
Jet fuel deployment – how much, how soon, by whom? California, look up, not down! ... At this writing, California has invested $448 million in electric vehicle subsidies according to this source, yet hasn’t managed even to include aviation fuels under the California Low Carbon Fuel Standard.
What do we do about biodiesel? ...
High-value protein and nutrition development ...
Cellulosic ethanol – “too little, too late” or “the best is yet to come”? ...
Digital Biology – novel molecules or enhancement? ...
Low Carbon market volumes ... The US has backed corn-based ethanol to the hilt and more or less thrown anything looking like an advanced biofuel under the bus. California has been cynically using fuels to carry the low carbon base load and then handed the revenue to electrics. Europe has backed advanced biofuels and thrown first-gen fuels under the bus, after mostly starving advanced technology deployment for a decade. Only Asia has been keeping policy and technology deployment structures is any sort of order, yet they’ve under-invested in R&D and will have to import technologies to realize their feedstock opportunities. ...
Free trade vs national development ...
Liquids vs electrics ... Voices at Ford, Toyota, Audi and Nissan have been ignored for continuing to raise the problems of recharging cycles, grid instability and the promise of fuel cell and hydrogen vehicles. Meanwhile, the Tesla bears racked up almost $900 million in profits this quarter betting against the accepted wisdom and that Tesla would come up monumentally short of promised volumes. And auto writers have been quietly noted that the $35,000 base model price is going to look more like a $58,000 luxury car purchase when the needed add-ins are included. ...
Chemical deployment – functional advantage vs sustainable attributes – Driven by markets or technology? ... Meanwhile, many technologies have pivoted away from fuels — heading for renewable chemicals, nutraceuticals, advanced foods and biomaterials. In most cases, they are chasing higher-value markets as well as concern from strategic investors over sustainability, and commodity price volatility. ...
Oil and commodity prices ... Opportunities on the chemical side have tended to focus on performance benefits from novel chemicals, and organic acids that contain oxygen (found in biomass, but not petroleum). But we’ve seen more and more pivoting to super-high products, forget a pivot from $2 fuels to $4 chemicals, we’re seeing companies turn to $12 proteins and $300 fragrances. Where venture capital is available, they’re completely steering away from high-volume, low-price markets such as fuels. ...
Fostering investor confidence, and the financing problem ... A couple of major shifts are the rise of technology risk insurance and the opening of the tax-free municipal bond market and interest from institutional bond buyers. We’re seeing epic amounts of money coming into Digital Biology where biology is morphing into Software-as-a-Service, and protein and nutrition ventures have been picking up venture support for much shorter timelines to scale than fuels or big-volume chemicals. At ABLC, we’ll also look at the reviving of mandates to create a separate market within which low-carbon fuels can compete — an expanding California LCFS, a Canadian LCFS; stronger mandates in India and China.
The Sustainable Agriculture Imperative ... And in the end, it all comes down to the raw materials. Nothing is made from nothing. Whether it is waste material piling up in a landfill, new energy crops or existing crops that can be used to make fuels as a secondary application — it’s all about producing sustainable, affordable, reliable available feedstock. That’s why we’re beginning ABLC this year actually in the building at USDA, focusing on the building of supply chains for the biobased revolution. We’re starting where the supply chain starts — with the farmer and the lab.
Not only looking at making more biomass, but making it more sustainably through yield intensification, reduced inputs, smart fields and farmers with all the decision-support data they could possibly need, right at their fingertips. READ MORE
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