Subsidize My Electric Car, Please: Auto Makers Want Congress to Expand This Gift to the Affluent.

September 03, 2019

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(Wall Street Journal) The great myth of political subsidies for business is that they will help an industry get started and then go away. We’ll soon see if Congress can for once live up to its temporary promise and block the emerging effort to continue subsidizing the affluent to buy electric cars.

Wyoming Republican John Barrasso is circulating a letter asking Senate Leader Mitch McConnell to reject an expansion or extension of the electric-vehicle tax credit. The federal government currently provides a $7,500 consumer tax break for an auto maker’s… READ MORE

Economics of Electric Vehicles Mean Oil's Days As A Transport Fuel Are Numbered (Forbes)

ARE WE NEAR THE END OF THE ICE (INTERNAL COMBUSTION ENGINE) AGE? (Diesel Technology Forum)

Excerpt from Forbes: The future is not looking bright for oil, according to a new report that claims the commodity would have to be priced at $10-$20 a barrel to remain competitive as a transport fuel.

The new research, from BNP Paribas, says that the economics of renewable energy make it impossible for oil to compete at current prices. The author of the report, global head of sustainability Mark Lewis, says that “renewable electricity has a short-run marginal cost of zero, is cleaner environmentally, much easier to transport and could readily replace up to 40% of global oil demand”.

The oil industry faces a disruption on the same scale as that which has hit the European utilities sector over the last decade, he adds.

The report, Wells, Wires, And Wheels… Eroci And The Tough Road Ahead For Oil, introduces the concept of the Energy Return on Capital Invested (EROCI), focusing on the energy return on a $100bn outlay on oil and renewables where the energy is being used to power cars and other light-duty vehicles (LDVs). READ MORE

Excerpt from Diesel Technology Forum: Until the time when electrified mobility approaches significant scale, gas and diesel engines will continue to improve. Customers will demand it; manufacturers are invested in it; and society needs it to ensure continued incremental progress on cleaner air and lower CO2 emissions.

Here’s what thought leaders and leading manufacturers have to say on the topic:

“While Cummins has a vigorous electrification program under way, our other key message at IAA is that the diesel engine is not standing still. With our technical developments, we see diesel remaining as the primary source of power in the commercial vehicle sector for the foreseeable future.” (Cummins, Tom Linebarger, Chairman and CEO)

“We expect to see a mix of combustion engines and electric vehicles on the road for a long time to come, despite the current debate about diesel-powered passenger cars in particular, and the decline in new diesel vehicle registrations in Europe. This is because existing powertrain concepts can also play an important role in improving air quality and reducing CO2, especially since the wide-scale adoption of electromobility requires further substantial upfront investments in engineering and infrastructure. Viable diesel and spark-ignition engines that have hardly any effect on air quality even at inner-city air-pollution hotspots are now within reach.” (BOSCH, 2018 Annual Report)
“We look forward to harnessing the power of both Caterpillar's and Argonne's industry-leading research expertise and world-class facilities to develop ground-breaking solutions for diesel engine design.” The organizations plan to build and test heavy-duty diesel engines that reduce emissions and improve fuel economy. (Caterpillar, Jon Anders, Principal Investigator and Senior Engineering Specialist in the Innovation & Technology Development Division, March 2019)
“Volvo Group acknowledges that there is no single fuel that can meet all needs. Conventional diesel fuel, with increasing renewable or synthetic content, will likely remain the dominant fuel for most types of commercial transport for many years to come.” (Volvo Group, 2018 Annual Report)

“We will continue to build diesel engines. But they will be even cleaner and feature more smart technologies. And we will devote more of our energy to meeting ever-growing demands for hybrid solutions, the electrification of drive systems, and the use of alternative fuels and gas power. With our Green and High-Tech program, we have shown that we have a progressive vision on how to meet the huge challenges of the energy turnaround and new trends in mobility.” (Rolls Royce Power Systems-MTU, Andreas Schell, Chairman of the Board)
“Isuzu and Cummins recognize the advanced diesel engine is, and will continue to be, an important power choice for global customers in commercial vehicle and industrial applications. This is especially true in developed countries where power sources are used for high-intensity operations, as well as in emerging countries where social infrastructure conditions are severe.” (Isuzu,Masanori Katayama, President and Representative Director, announcing power-source partnership agreement with Cummins, May 2019)
“Actually for the diesel engines, we are also continuously working on that in order to achieve the ideal diesel engine. Especially these days, SUVs are quite popular – that means vehicles are bigger and heavier, for those types of vehicles, in terms of reducing CO2, diesel engines still have the advantage... [we have] no plans to phase out diesel.” (Mazda, Ichiro Hirose, Managing Executive Director of Powertrain Development)
“Various projections for the U.S. suggest that by 2030, some 10 to 25 percent of vehicles might be electrified. The question then remains, what about the other 90 to 75 percent? And what about the large trucks and ships that run on diesel fuel? There are, as yet, no convincing electric options for those vehicles. That is why it is still so important to continue working on internal combustion engines and make them as clean and efficient as we can.” (Massachusetts Institute of Technology, John Heywood, Professor of Mechanical Engineering)
“Perkins is focusing on the third incarnation of diesel engines. Power 3.0 will see research and development focus on how to create an engine that is focused on sustainability, as well as capable of delivering more productivity while consuming less fuel. Power 3.0 is the next stage. The hybrids and electrics will be part of that story.” (Perkins, Oliver Lythgoe, Product Concept Marketing)
“I wouldn't see the termination of internal combustion engines on the horizon. We are still working on the next generation of gasoline engines. They will become more fuel efficient. We will have 48-volt start-stop systems and mild-hybrid systems. There is still a lot of improvement going in there. But, on the other hand, the improvement — engine generation after engine generation — will be reduced because there's just not much more [efficiency] in this. The low-hanging fruits are gone. In many countries, you don't have renewable energy available. And then, if you make the counts, diesel is probably still the best option for a low CO2-emission mobility. We are just working on the next generation of diesel engines, becoming even cleaner now, with additional catalytic converters in the car, with additional effort on cleaning, and they become really clean now. We will have a market for these in Europe and many other places. Probably not here, because diesel here always was a niche on the passenger-car side. But also here, the bigger cars, the higher driving distances, diesel becomes more of a rational [choice]. When it comes to big SUVs, diesel still makes sense.” (Volkswagen, Herbert Diess, CEO)
“We expect diesels to survive for at least 20 more years and gasoline for at least 30 more years.” (BMW, Klaus Froelich, BMW group Board Member)

So what will keep ICE at the top of the transport charts for the foreseeable future? Continued gains in efficiency and lower emissions. Increased pairing with hybrid powertrains. Increasing use of advanced renewable fuels. All are factors that will contribute to diesel and gasoline engines playing a key role well into the future. READ MORE