New Report Provides Comprehensive Plan to Meet U.S. Net-Zero Goals and Ensure Fair and Equitable Energy Transition

October 24, 2023

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(National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine) A new report from the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine provides a broad set of recommendations that form a comprehensive plan to put the U.S. on a pathway to realize its net-zero carbon emissions goals by 2050 and ensure that all Americans can benefit from a fair and equitable energy transition.

The second of two reports examining the nation’s transition to a decarbonized energy system, the new report focuses on gaps and barriers to implementation of net-zero policies, emphasizing the need for a strong social contract during the decades-long transition. The first report provided a technical and federal policy blueprint for the next 10 years, and its recommendations helped shape climate policies included in the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act of 2021, CHIPS and Science Act of 2022, and Inflation Reduction Act of 2022.

“Recent energy and climate policies are revolutionary and unprecedented in both scale and scope, putting the U.S. on or close to a path to zero net emissions by mid-century. They are also designed to realize a fair and equitable energy transition, improve human health, and revitalize U.S. manufacturing,” said Stephen Pacala, Frederick D. Petrie Professor of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology at Princeton University and chair of the committee that wrote the report. “With so much at stake, the main challenge now is effective implementation of these policies. This report addresses how the nation can best overcome the barriers that will slow or prevent a just energy transition, and also fills some gaps in the existing policy portfolio.”

“As we continue to understand the urgency of the climate crisis and its unequal impacts, equity must be at the center of both research and new policies,” said Marcia McNutt, president of the National Academy of Sciences. “This landmark report, part of an Academies-wide effort called Climate Crossroads, is a prime example of how scientists and science institutions like the National Academies can help shape policy change. This report encapsulates our promise to advise leaders who are looking for evidence-based equity and climate solutions.”

The new report covers a broad set of societal objectives and technological sectors and includes over 80 recommendations targeting private and public sector engagement. Lower-cost energy technologies, legislative support, and the national focus on equity and justice, it says, have created an opportunity for the U.S. to meet urgent needs created by the climate crisis. These developments, in addition to federal regulations and executive orders, state and local policies, and private sector activities, put the United States in a position to take the lead in the global fight against climate change.

The report addresses energy justice and equity, public health, the workforce, public engagement, clean electricity, the built environment, land use, transportation, industrial decarbonization, the financial sector, the future of fossil fuels, and state and local government roles. Across these topic areas, several key themes emerged:

Broadening the Climate Policy Portfolio

Recent federal climate legislation has exclusively focused on subsidies and tax incentives, but a 30-year transition will require more durable support through a broad social contract and an expansion of the policy portfolio to also include taxes and regulations, the report says. Congress should create a national greenhouse gas emissions budget; an economy-wide carbon tax with provisions to protect people with low incomes; and standards on clean electricity generation and zero-emissions vehicles.

Ensuring Equity, Justice, and Health

Air pollution from the combustion of fossil fuels disproportionately impacts communities of color and low-income households and causes up to 350,000 deaths in the U.S. annually. The report says health impacts must be assessed when technological and new infrastructure decisions are made, and steps should be taken to mitigate harms to workers and communities from the loss of fossil-fuel dependent jobs. Congress should codify a stringent quantitative target, such as that embodied in the White House’s Justice40 initiative, that will provide a clear standard by which the federal government will measure progress in fairness, equity, and justice during the energy transition.

Strengthening the U.S. Electricity System

Perhaps the single greatest technological danger to a successful energy transition is the risk that the nation fails to site, modernize, and build out the electrical grid, the report says. Without increased transmission capacity, renewables deployment would be delayed, and the net result could be at least a temporary increase in fossil fuel emissions, preventing the nation from achieving its emission reduction goals. The high-voltage interstate electricity grid should be expanded through permitting reforms; local electricity distribution systems and electricity markets should be modernized; and energy efficiency should be adopted more aggressively. The U.S. Department of Energy and the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission should take actions to strengthen the energy grid, including dispersing Inflation Reduction Act allocations to fund technical assistance and community engagement.

Supporting Rigorous and Transparent Analysis and Reporting

Climate and energy programs are present across the federal government, with many implementation activities led by state and local governments. However, the scale of the transition is complicated, vast, fast paced, and unprecedented. The report recommends Congress designate an enduring entity to oversee and execute transparent data analysis, monitoring, and public reporting about the nation’s progress toward its net-zero emissions goal. This evaluation will enable adaptive management of these programs to ensure investments result in effective and equitable decarbonization.

Ensuring Procedural Equity in Infrastructure Planning

Reaching public consensus and support requires collaborative processes managed by specialists, with active participation by diverse groups of people in local communities. Federal agencies should establish regional planning networks to convene stakeholders and develop place-based decarbonization strategies to help ensure that the public is meaningfully engaged when new infrastructure is being considered. The report also recommends addressing barriers that prevent local communities from benefiting from renewable energy facilities; developing regional renewable energy plans; supporting subnational capacity building; and addressing priorities of disadvantaged and other impacted communities, among other actions.

Reforming Financial Markets

Historically, not all communities have had equal access to capital for energy and climate projects, an inequality that the report says the energy transition must address through targeted programs. Requiring disclosure of better, more standardized data and information from companies ― such as their total emissions, their products’ carbon intensity, or their exposure to climate change impacts like increased wildfires ― would allow investors and regulators to fully understand climate-related risks and opportunities. In addition, financial regulators should improve their monitoring and supervision of climate risks through scenario analysis and stress testing.

Building the Needed Workforce and Capacity

The U.S. lacks trained workers to implement current climate and energy policy and meet the federal government’s fairness, equity, justice, and public engagement goals. Training and programs are needed to remedy the severe capacity shortage, and such programs could also provide retraining for current workers in fossil fuel industries, the report says. The U.S. Department of Education should provide support to schools to develop K-12 net-zero curriculum and prepare students for careers in a net-zero economy. Congress should extend unemployment insurance for fossil-fuel related layoffs and develop a workforce adjustment assistance program. It should also focus on building the technological and social sciences workforces needed to implement decarbonization solutions.

Updating Targets for the Industrial and Building Sectors

Federal policy goals for certain sectors, such as industry and building, are currently not very stringent, the report says. Congress should take action to accelerate decarbonization of the industrial sector, which could also serve to revive it. It should also continue rebates, tax credits, and capacity development in decarbonization skills to incentivize energy efficiency and electrification upgrades for both sectors.

Meeting Research, Development, and Demonstration Needs

The breadth of the energy transition requires a research portfolio broader than that in the Energy Department’s domain — for example, development of land use practices that store carbon while improving agricultural productivity, or research on alternative ways to produce protein with lower emissions profiles. Gaps in research and development will require identifying which technologies to pursue and how, as well as interagency coordination beyond the DOE. Additionally, greater investments are required in energy-related social sciences and medium- to long-term technical challenges, such as developing new methods to make low-carbon products.

Managing the Future of the Fossil Fuel Sector

Most estimates indicate a continued role for fossil fuels — particularly oil and gas — in meeting U.S. energy needs through the next decade, but significant uncertainty about their role beyond that point remains. The consequences of reduced demand for fossil fuels should be managed by safe operation of municipal gas distribution networks despite a declining base of rate payers, reforms to taxes on gasoline and petroleum products, and transition planning and assistance for communities dependent on the fossil fuel industry, according to the report. States should require utilities and service providers to plan for the transition, and consider moratoriums on extending gas lines to previously unserved areas. Congress and state legislatures should ensure there is funding from plant owners for decommissioning and cleanup of closed facilities.

The energy transition will constitute a national effort, involving all Americans and businesses and organizations across all sectors of the economy, along with an adaptive whole-of-government approach. The report contains a wide array of other recommendations that will help ensure the U.S. stays on the path to net-zero, and with it, benefits from cleaner air, reduced climate change impacts, equitable and affordable energy services, and better employment opportunities.

The study — undertaken by the Committee on Accelerating Decarbonization in the United States: Technology, Policy, and Societal Dimensions — was sponsored by the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation, Heising-Simons Foundation, Quadrivium Foundation, Breakthrough Energy, ClearPath Foundation, the Energy Foundation, and Incite Labs, with support from the National Academy of Sciences’ Thomas Lincoln Casey Fund, Arthur L. Day Fund, and Andrew W. Mellon Foundation Fund.

The National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine are private, nonprofit institutions that provide independent, objective analysis and advice to the nation to solve complex problems and inform public policy decisions related to science, engineering, and medicine. They operate under an 1863 congressional charter to the National Academy of Sciences, signed by President Lincoln. READ MORE