Nations Must Drop Fossil Fuels, Fast, World Energy Body Warns

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May 18, 2021

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by Brad Plumer (New York Times) A landmark report from the International Energy Agency says countries need to move faster and more aggressively to cut planet-warming pollution. — Nations around the world would need to immediately stop approving new coal-fired power plants and new oil and gas fields and quickly phase out gasoline-powered vehicles if they want to avert the most catastrophic effects of climate change, the world’s leading energy agency said Tuesday.

In a sweeping new report, the International Energy Agency issued a detailed road map of what it would take for the world’s nations to slash carbon dioxide emissions to net zero by 2050. That would very likely keep the average global temperature from increasing 1.5 Celsius above preindustrial levels — the threshold beyond which scientists say the Earth faces irreversible damage.

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Formed after the oil crises of the 1970s, the agency’s reports and forecasts are frequently cited by energy companies and investors as a basis for long-term planning.

“It’s a huge shift in messaging if they’re saying there’s no need to invest in new fossil fuel supply,” said Kelly Trout, senior research analyst at Oil Change International, an environmental advocacy group.

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Any emissions that could not be fully erased would be offset, such as by forests or artificial technologies that can pull carbon dioxide directly out of the atmosphere.

To reach that goal of net zero worldwide by 2050, every nation would need to move much faster and more aggressively away from fossil fuels than they are currently doing, the report found.

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China still has plans for dozens of new coal-fired power plants, although President Xi Jinping said his country would “strictly limit increasing coal consumption” in the next five years. And companies in the United States and Canada are still targeting new oil and gas fields for development.

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The agency sketched out one potential timetable:

This year, nations would stop approving new coal plants unless they are outfitted with carbon capture technology to trap and bury their emissions underground. Nations would also stop approving the development of new oil and gas fields beyond those already committed.
By 2025, governments worldwide would start banning the sale of new oil and gas furnaces to heat buildings, shifting instead to cleaner electric heat pumps.
By 2030, electric vehicles would make up 60 percent of new car sales globally, up from just 5 percent today. By 2035, automakers would stop selling new gasoline- or diesel-fueled passenger vehicles. By 2050, virtually all cars on the roads worldwide either run on batteries or hydrogen.
By 2035, the world’s advanced economies would zero out emissions from power plants, shifting away from emitting coal and gas plants to technologies like wind, solar, nuclear or carbon capture. By 2040, all of the world’s remaining coal-fired power plants are closed or retrofitted with carbon capture technology.
In 2035, more than half of new heavy trucks would be electric. By 2040, roughly half of all air travel worldwide would be fueled by cleaner alternatives to jet fuel, such as sustainable biofuels or hydrogen.

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But roughly half the emissions cuts by 2050 would come from technologies that are still in the demonstration or prototype stage, the report said, such as cleaner hydrogen fuels for steel plants, advanced batteries to juggle wind and solar output and devices to pull carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere.

Governments will have to pay careful attention to the geopolitical upheaval that could accompany a rapid shift to clean energy, the agency said. For instance, mining for critical metals such as cobalt or copper would grow sevenfold over the next decade. The sharp decline in oil and gas production worldwide would likely mean that low-cost oil producers in places like the Middle East would assume a dominant share of the remaining market.

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… 5 million people in fossil-fuel industries could find themselves out of work. And, today, more than 785 million people worldwide currently have no access to electricity, and the agency warned that a shift away from fossil fuels shouldn’t leave them behind. READ MORE

Groundbreaking climate report rattles EV, gas debate (E&E News)

IEA lays out narrow road to net-zero (Politico’s Morning Energy)

IEA Outline Roadmap for World to Reach Net-Zero by 2050 (Our Daily Planet)

Climate change: Ban new gas boilers from 2025 to reach net-zero (BBC)

Climate change: G7 ministers agree new steps against fossil fuels (BBC)

A ‘narrow’ pathway to a net zero future for greenhouse gases, IEA says — The International Energy Agency says massive investment shift is needed in the next decade to get to net zero in 2050. (Washington Post)

G7 nations vow to phase out international financing for coal projects: With the United States again pushing for robust climate action, the countries also agreed to adopt emissions-cutting targets that would meet the most ambitious aims of the Paris climate accord. (Washington Post)

New fossil fuel projects must be stopped immediately to meet climate goals, IEA says (Washington Examiner)

1 big thing: IEA just shook up the debate over oil’s future (Axios)

United States announced as Chair of multilateral Biofuture Platform during Biofuture Summit II (Biofuture Platform/PR Newswire)

Energy Blog: Oil and Gas Acknowledge Carbon’s Fade (American Society of Mechanical Engineers)

Daily on Energy: Call to end oil and gas exploration will ‘come back to haunt us,’ top analyst warns (Washington Times)