by Joanne Ivancic* (Advanced Biofuels USA) “U.S. is not where things are happening.” “Policy uncertainty.” “National Security” “Not replacing petroleum; complementing it.” “Not an alternative to electric vehicles (EVs); complementing them.” “Persistence.” “Hurdles.” “Syngas” “Bankability.” “AI” “In Nature, There Is No Waste.” “Waste.” “Carbon Intensity.” “Greenhouse Gas Emissions.” “Syngas.” “Accelerating.” “Energy Dominance.” “First of a Kind (FOAK)”
These thoughts and more were repeated by various presenters and in hallway conversations November 16-18, at the Alternative Fuels and Chemicals Coalition 5th Annual Global Biobased Economy Conference & Exhibit on Industrial Biotechnology. It’s a good place to get a sense of the current reality related to transitioning from fossil-based to bio- and waste-based chemicals and fuels.
Out with “Replacing the Whole Barrel”
So, we’ll start with the transition from “replacing the whole barrel” of petroleum to not replacing petroleum; but complementing it.
This transition in phrasing recognizes the heavy support for fossil fuels and chemicals coming from the White House and relevant agencies; and recognizes that liquid- and gas-fueled internal combustion engines will not disappear any time soon powered in part by fossil fuel and in part by renewables. The idea is that carbon molecules will go where they make the most sense.
This rephrasing also recognizes the inevitable lag time for getting renewable fuels into the marketplace caused by policy uncertainty and difficulty financing research and production of renewable alternatives (or complements).
In the same vein, that is, White House emphasis -- although energy security, energy independence and national security have always been hot topics at renewable fuels and chemicals gatherings, “Energy Dominance” also found its way into policy discussions.
Somewhat related, coming out into the open, is acknowledgement that EVs and internal combustion engines will be sharing the roads for a long time. “Renewables aren’t an alternative to EVs; rather a complement.”
This has always been assumed in the renewable fuels community; however, now people are saying it more openly. Maybe because the renewable fuels community has empathy and won’t indulge in schadenfreude as the EV markets find a more realistic balance as individuals, policy-makers, investors and business leaders look for alternatives that fit their personal practical priorities as well as their moral values. We know how fast public opinion can turn.
Financing, Investing, Finding Money
No alternative fuels and chemicals conference would be complete without extensive discussions about how to get these products produced, tested, scaled-up, commercialized. That is, how to get funding, investment and financing for everything (EVERYTHING) from feedstock production, harvesting or aggregation, pre-processing, conversion to building blocks, and through all the steps to achieving regulatory approvals, patents or other IP protection, through production of commercial products. The whole nine yards; actually, the whole 10 yards.
A key word in this area is “bankability.” Your product can’t just be sustainable, or even just better than what it can replace. You have to show that it can be made without anyone losing money. And with building “First of a Kind” projects, that’s a tall order. Yet, even with tested and demonstrated processes and products, convincing the financial world that they are sure to make money is a big challenge in a world of policy uncertainty and disruptions due to geopolitical issues as well as to the effects of climate change.
Thus, every bit of the supply and value chains gets explored from multiple angles.
What’s missing?
That said, I see at something missing: marketing in the sense of helping the public, decision-makers, influencers, educators, consumers and others to understand what these alternative fuels and chemicals are and how their production and use makes the world a better place.
If there is a conference or other gathering that tackles these aspects of renewable, sustainable, alternative fuels and chemicals, please tell me about it. I want to be there! It seems to me public understanding and demand has a big influence on bankability; but is not yet a part of conference programing with few exceptions.
At a previous AFCC conference, there was a panel of farmers who talked about what it would take to meet (and prove) carbon intensity scores for commodity farm products. Surely, credible “greenness” throughout the supply chain has become crucial to achieving sales of the final product either in voluntary marketing or to meet national and international regulations. Yet, there was no farming panel this year. I hope they come back in the future.
This year I appreciated the participation of someone involved in implementation where the rubber meets the road; or, in his case, where the boat meets the water. As a technology specialist at ADM, Erik Schott buys the fuel for the vessels that ply the Mississippi and other rivers moving feedstock. He made some valuable practical points and observations.
Working for ADM and is happy to use high blends of biodiesel that they authorize him to purchase depending on market forces. He is able to use it in his aged fleet of barges. As he noted, if those engines can burn liquid tar, they can certainly burn biodiesel. He just goes through a lot of fuel filters as the biodiesel cleans out the crud left by the other, dirtier fuels.
He’s also in charge of trucks that have been retrofitted or designed to use 100% biodiesel. They start with petroleum diesel, then swap over to the 100% biodiesel. When the driver turns off the engine, it runs a bit longer to flush the system with a bit of petroleum diesel, then shuts down. He and the drivers are so please with this system that he would like to see it created and deployed on the river barges.
In general, I have observed great enthusiasm in the maritime community for transitioning from the ‘bottom of the barrel’ awful, dirty, smelly, disgusting fuels to cleaner burning respectable renewables.
Schott did make some comments that reveal areas for clearer education and marketing. He wondered if he could trust the placards on the fuel about greenhouse gas reductions. Also, although he thought that engine designs based on dual-fuel use were good, he could not support building new boats designed just for new fuels based on tax credits that only last a few years.
No Waste
More than ever presentations included some mention of finding value in things that were discarded. From making another process’s discards into valuable commodities to making sure that everything that comes out of a process has a use or value, renewable fuels involves many co-products.
Maybe this is why at this conference and in many articles posted on the Advanced Biofuels USA website over the past year, syngas has been getting more attention.
Building on the idea circular economy idea that “In Nature, There Is No Waste” increases the robustness of the concept of “sustainability”, highlights additional dimensions that should no longer be overlooked by industries in the bioeconomy or by their critics.
Brain Drain
In discussions of financing and policy, opportunities outside the US got substantial consideration.
At a recent National Academies of Sciences, Engineering and Medicine event, presenters and audience members talked about a brain drain from the US, of the decline in foreign students doing research at US universities and of US academics, researchers and experts talking about attractive offers from other countries. At the AFCC conference, stories were of biomanufacturing leaving, of companies leaving, getting partnerships and investment outside the US borders.
Certainly, accelerating use of renewable fuels is a global issue. Innovators are filing for patents in other nations. US interests are looking to wider pastures with more policy certainty.
Perseverance
When things sounded discouraging during sessions, someone was sure to try to buck up morale noting that we need to be flexible. Things are going to change. The message: React or Die; Don’t just sit there. Things come and go around. Sometimes you are just too early. You might need to pivot to take a detour. But keep an eye on the goal. Look deeply. Do you see a market; business need? If not now, is one developing?
There are lots of hurdles. Don’t keep your insights to yourself.
The advice was: document and let people in Washington hear about your experience. Making the world a better place with sustainable, renewable, improved products is doable, is happening, and has all kinds of benefits. When you come up with solutions be sure to tell Congress and other decision-makers all along the value and supply chains.
Sad to say, attendance was about half of years 3 and 4 which is understandable considering that being just outside Washington, DC, many who might have attended were no longer in relevant jobs -- or with the US government shutdown ended only a few days before, might have been crawling out from under the piles accumulated while they were unable or prohibited from working. I also missed the many students who attended during the past couple of years. Participating in conferences like this to learn, to network, to chat informally with people doing the work you hope to make your career, maybe to present a poster, can be a valuable experience.
Those who were able to attend were not disappointed. The AFCC conference remains one of the best places to hear thoughtful, insightful, candid presentations and discussions about defossilization of both chemicals and fuels.
Perseverance. The renewable fuels world has lived through many ups and downs. This is exciting science; exciting engineering; fascinating policy development; creative financing. And, wonderful, dedicated people doing hard work to make the world a better place.
If materials from this conference become publicly available, I will post them here and with our announcement of this conference.
*Joanne Ivancic serves as the executive director of Advanced Biofuels USA.
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