Greenwashing the Skies

May 14, 2024

Print This Article Share it With Friends

by Chuck Collins, Omar Ocampo, and Kalena Thomhave (Institute for Policy Studies) How the Private Jet Lobby Uses "Sustainable Aviation Fuels" as a Marketing Ploy -- As the climate crisis intensifies, the private jet industry is facing a reckoning over its massive carbon footprint. After all, private jets emit 10 to 20 times more pollutants per passenger than commercial planes. According to one estimate, U.S. private jets emitted more than 16 million metric tons of carbon in 2022.

So now, as consumers and policymakers look to reduce fossil fuel emissions, private jet companies and their lobbyists are touting new commitments to sustainability.

Specifically, they’re promising to develop and use a less-polluting alternative to fossil jet fuel, commonly referred to as “sustainable aviation fuel” or SAF. This fuel is typically made from crops or waste and can be substituted for current forms of jet fuel, or more likely mixed with it, ostensibly reducing emissions.

Unfortunately, we find that these fuels are largely — so far — a false solution.

There is currently no realistic or scalable alternative to kerosene-based fuels that would meet current aviation needs, let alone the industry’s projections of future growth. At present, SAF technologies would fail to meet U.S. climate goals by the target year of 2050.

Though it may be technologically possible to create alternate fuels for private jets, policymakers should consider the tradeoffs in terms of government subsidies, land use changes, and competing decarbonization needs in other sectors such as heating, ground transportation, buildings, and electricity generation.

Private jet expansion, even with alternative fuels, is the least defensible use of societal resources on a warming planet. A summary of our findings follows, but readers can learn more in the full-length report.

Key Findings

Sustainable aviation fuels are critical to the aviation sector’s vision for growth. The industry recognizes that massive emissions — and negative publicity — is a barrier to expansion. SAFs are its primary solution, although they remains a speculative solutions at best.
The private jet aviation market remains resilient. Private aviation enjoyed a strong 2023. Even though private jet operations and transaction dollar volume were down compared to 2022, both were still above pre-pandemic levels. There were close to 5.1 million private jet flights taken in 2023 with a transaction dollar volume of $32.2 billion.
Scaling up SAF production may thwart emissions reduction goals. Currently, in order to rapidly expand the production of sustainable aviation fuels, producers must use biogenic feedstocks — which could threaten global food security as well as nature-based carbon sequestration solutions such as the preservation of forests and wetlands. Plus, burning SAFs still emits CO2 — sometimes more than that of kerosene-based jet fuel. As such, SAF production may actively undermine Paris Agreement emissions reduction targets.
Realistic increases in SAF production are decades off. In 2022, the U.S. produced just 15.8 million gallons of SAF. Meeting the Biden administration’s 2030 SAF production target of 3 billion gallons per year would require an 18,887 percent production increase over the next six years. To meet the 2050 target of 35 billion gallons, production would have to increase a whopping 227,400 percent over 2022 production levels.
The aviation industry has a 20-year history of missing its SAF production benchmarks. The International Air Transport Association (IATA) announced an aggressive climate goal in 2007, asserting that SAFs would account for 10 percent of all jet fuel consumed by the aviation sector within a decade. Even after the association lowered that benchmark repeatedly, SAFs currently account for just 0.2 percent of the total jet fuel supply.

A graph showing the shortfall between the target and actual market share of sustainable jet fuel

The cost of SAF infrastructure and production will require massive subsidies. The aviation industry is asking for substantial governmental subsidies in order to increase the scale of SAF production. The Biden administration has estimated that the infrastructure necessary to meet the annual production goal of 3 billion gallons by 2030 could cost roughly $30 billion. The U.S. government would likely need to pour tens of billions of dollars into additional SAF subsidies to incentivize corporations to build relevant infrastructure and mandate the use of SAFs, further subsidizing private jet travel.
The aviation industry is already lobbying to weaken standards and sustainability definitions. Even while touting its commitment to sustainability, the U.S. aviation industry is aggressively lobbying to water down SAF definitions, which would shift climate goalposts. The aviation industry has teamed up with lobbyists for Big Corn to press for the expansion of corn-based ethanol expansion, which has dubious benefits in reducing life cycle emissions.
A key question remains: Are SAFs a serious alternative solution or a PR strategy? The aviation industry is failing to meet climate benchmarks while it promotes aggressive communications and advertising campaigns meant to demonstrate its commitment to environmentalism.
The best way to be green is to stay grounded. We know that reducing carbon and other greenhouse gas emissions is the most effective and most direct strategy against climate change. Regarding aviation, and especially private aviation, this can simply mean flying less and curtailing the demand for air travel.
More independent research into SAFs is necessary. More research is needed from independent research bodies that are not funded or influenced by the fossil fuel or aviation industries. We must learn more about SAF fuel sources, estimated timetables, and costs — including opportunity costs like competing decarbonization needs. READ MORE Full Report

Related articles

Excerpt from OilPrice.com: Other than high land usage, high costs is yet another hurdle that’s been plaguing the SAF sector. Energy pricing agency Argus Media has reported SAF prices at $6.69 per gallon, more than double $2.85 for a gallon of U.S. jet fuel. Fuel typically accounts for 25% of an airline's operating expenses, and replacing just 10% of ordinary jet fuel with SAF would have a major impact on airlines’ bottom lines. The economics are equally dire for SAF producers, with the $1.75 per gallon tax credit provided under the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) not enough to offset poor margins.

SAF Growth Runways

Despite these headwinds, the SAF sector appears headed for major growth. The aviation sector has already committed to six billion liters of SAF in forward purchase agreements, or 10x the global SAF production at only 600 million liters in 2023. Small production runs is a big reason for the large cost differential between conventional jet fuel and SAF; however, SAFs are likely to become cheaper as the industry scales up and adopts more robust supply agreements.

Some major U.S. airlines are onboard with Biden’s SAF agenda, with Delta Air Lines (NYSE:DAL) and Southwest Airlines (NYSE:LUV) having committed to replace 10% of their jet fuel with SAF by 2030. Thankfully, most SAF brands are ‘drop-in’ fuels, designed to be mixed with traditional fuels, meaning no changes or extra investments are needed from airports. Two years ago, California-based renewable natural gas and renewable fuels company Aemetis Inc. (NASDAQ: AMTX) signed a multi-year agreement with International Airlines Group (IAG) to supply 78,400 tonnes of sustainable aviation fuel to help power both British Airways and Irish flag carrier Aer Lingus’ flights from San Francisco Airport from 2025. Back in February, Aemetis unveiled its 5-Year Growth Plan wherein it revealed it has received the final Authority to Construct air permits for a 78 million gallon per year SAF production facility. The company’s SAF biorefinery will utilize renewable oils, renewable hydrogen and hydroelectric power to produce low-carbon intensity renewable jet and diesel fuel.

Last year, European regulators introduced a mandate to ensure SAF constitutes 2% of fuel available at EU airports by 2025, a figure set to increase to 6% in 2030, 20% in 2035 and 70% in 2050. The EU parliament approved the mandate in January, although member states are yet to vote on it. READ MORE