Green Molecules Could Reduce Europe’s Energy Dependence by Half by 2040

June 06, 2026

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(Moeve) According to Moeve’s report “Why does Europe Need Green Molecules?” in collaboration with PwC, green molecules could reduce Europe’s dependence on imported energy from 57% in 2024 to 28% in 2040

Green molecules—such as renewable hydrogen, second-generation biofuels, and biomethane—could replace up to 50% of current fossil fuel demand by 2050, represent one-third of Europe’s energy mix and cut CO₂ emissions by 22%
The report concludes that the so-called “green premium” from these technologies declines along the value chain, limiting the impact on final consumer prices; for example, the cost increase for €100 sneakers shipped from Asia to Europe using green fuels would be around 50 cents
The analysis highlights the need for coordinated action to scale these solutions, supported by infrastructure investment, stable regulatory frameworks, and public-private collaboration to drive adoption and strengthen Europe’s industrial competitiveness

Green molecules are set to play a central role in strengthening Europe’s energy security, improving industrial competitiveness and decarbonizing hard-to-electrify sectors, according to a new report, “Why Does Europe Need Green Molecules?”, published by Moeve in collaboration with PwC and to be presented today in Brussels to policymakers, business leaders, and other key stakeholders.

The report highlights that green molecules— such as renewable hydrogen and its derivatives (ammonia and methanol), second generation biofuels, and biomethane—can reduce Europe’s external energy dependency by 50% by 2040, while advancing climate neutrality goals under the Green Deal, Fit for 55, and REPowerEU frameworks.

“Against a backdrop of rising geopolitical tensions and disruptions to global energy supply chains, Europe’s strategic imperative is clear: securing energy autonomy. European-produced green molecules offer a decisive path forward for a resilient, competitive and energy-independent Europe, while positioning the region as a global leader in tackling climate change. With the right support, European champions can lead the scale-up of these crucial clean energy solutions. The time to act is now.” -- Maarten Wetselaar, CEO of Moeve

The analysis, based on public sources and consulting firms’ reports, finds that green molecules can significantly reduce Europe’s reliance on imported energy by enabling greater use of locally produced renewable energy. Under a Net Zero scenario, these solutions could replace between 30% and 50% of fossil fuel demand and account for approximately one-third of the European Union’s energy mix by 2050.

Green molecules are particularly critical for carbon-intensive and hard-to-electrify sectors such as heavy industry, chemicals and long-haul transport, which currently account for 20% to 25% of primary energy demand. Decarbonizing these sectors with green molecules could reduce Europe’s CO₂ emissions by up to 22% by 2050.

While the report acknowledges the current existence of a “green premium” on these solutions, it concluded that the cost impact declines along the value chain, limiting the increase in final consumer prices from 2030 onward. For example, the estimated cost increase for the consumer for a pair of €100 sneakers shipped from Asia to Europe using green fuels would only be around 50 cents per pair.

Overall, the cost gap between conventional fossil fuels and green molecules is expected to narrow as the cost of CO₂ emissions increases, renewable energy prices decrease and biomass- and hydrogen-based fuel production becomes more efficient. For example, second-generation biofuels (already used in road, maritime, and aviation transport in the form of HVO and SAF) are expected to reach cost parity with fossil fuels in the 2030s, followed by synthetic fuels derived from green hydrogen in the 2040s.

To unlock the full potential of green molecules, the report calls for coordinated policy and industry action. Key priorities include:

Promoting regulatory frameworks that create markets and clear demand signals
Establishing financial support mechanisms to close the cost gap in early stages.
Scaling infrastructure and innovation across the value chain (production, transport, and storage).
Strengthening public-private partnerships to mobilize investment and achieve industrial scale.

The study emphasizes that the current decade will be decisive for laying the groundwork for large-scale deployment. Investments in infrastructure, technology and supply chains will be critical for Europe to rapidly scale green molecules from 2030 onwards and ensure long-term competitiveness and economic growth.

The full report is available at link.

Why does Europe need green molecules?

Accelerating decarbonization of industry and heavy transport is vital to European energy independence and energy competitiveness. READ MORE; includes VIDEO

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Is Europe Changing Its Mind On Biofuels (Again)? (ePURE/Ethanol Producer Magazine)

Excerpt from ePURE/Ethanol Producer Magazine:

But lately there’s been a change of tone from some key EU policymakers, who now talk about the importance of “homegrown” renewable energy sources, including biofuels, as Europe searches for ways to reduce its dependence on imported oil.

Take a look at some recent quotes from top EU officials since the start of the Iran war.

In March, Christophe Hansen, the European Commissioner in charge of agriculture policy, talked about how EU ethanol biorefineries could be better used to boost domestic food and fuel production. “There is a huge potential to do more,” Hansen said. “We have refineries all over Europe and all of them are under their maximum capacity.”

Hansen also shot down the long-running “food vs. fuel” myth that has been used by anti-biofuel lobbyists to impose limits on how much crop-based biofuels can count toward EU renewable energy targets—limits that have left the EU needlessly over-reliant on fossil fuel for transport.

“The ‘tank vs. plate’ dilemma belongs to the past,” Hansen said.

But there was more to come. As EU leaders scrambled to combat the energy crisis created by the Iran conflict, a statement from the Commission’s Directorate for Energy said: “Increasing the uptake of biofuels could help substitute for fossil petroleum products and alleviate pressure on the market.”

Then the European Commission released its AccelerateEU plan aimed at assuring EU energy security and reducing dependence on foreign oil, in which it also calls for increased domestic EU production of sustainable biofuels.

But perhaps the most noteworthy words came from the president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen. In a speech to the European Parliament, von der Leyen said: “We must reduce our overdependency on imported fossil fuels and boost our home-grown, affordable, clean energy supply.”

But von der Leyen has gone even further than that. In a letter to German members of the European Parliament, she specifically mentioned E20, a petrol blend with up to 20% renewable ethanol, as a viable alternative to fossil fuel with lesser amounts of biofuel and suggested the Commission would look at updating the EU’s Fuel Quality Directive to authorize its use.

“The Commission confirms the role that higher biofuel blending can play in decarbonizing existing vehicle fleets,” von der Leyen wrote. “As part of the revision of the policy framework for fuels, the Commission will consider authorizing higher ethanol contents (E20).”

These are welcome signs that the Commission recognizes the strategic importance of EU renewable ethanol biorefineries producing food, feed, fuel and biogenic CO2 to help achieve Europe’s goals for transport decarbonization, energy independence, food security, and industrial and agricultural autonomy.

Let’s hope the words will be followed up with actions to unleash the potential of the EU renewable ethanol industry for replacing fossil fuel, giving European citizens access to cheaper renewable energy sources, boosting food and feed production, and supporting agriculture and industry. READ MORE