Goias Maps Its Potential for Sustainable Aviation Fuel

April 08, 2026

Print This Article Share it With Friends

by Jefferson dos Santos Estevo* (Advanced Biofuels USA) The recent escalation of tensions involving USA, Israel and Iran, has reignited volatility in global oil markets and is already producing tangible effects on Brazil’s aviation sector. The risk to strategic routes such as the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20% of global oil flows, has pushed prices upward, directly impacting refined products, including jet fuel.

In Brazil, at the beginning of April, Petrobras, which accounts for approximately 85% of jet fuel production, announced an increase of approximately 55% in prices, one of the sharpest adjustments in recent years. As fuel accounts for between 30% and 45% of airlines’ operating costs, the pass-through to ticket prices is understandably unavoidable. The sector now anticipates higher airfares and potential cuts to less profitable routes, affecting national connectivity. In practice, geopolitical volatility is rapidly transmitted into domestic cost structures, revealing a structural dependence not on supply, but on price formation.

In response, the federal government has announced a set of emergency measures aimed at mitigating the impact on airlines. These include tax reductions, particularly eliminating PIS and Cofins (Programa de Integração Social and Contribution for the Financing of Social Security), resulting in savings of approximately R$0.07 per liter. Also, airlines will not pay until December the air navigation fees charged by the Brazilian Air Force for the months of April, May, and June. And funding for a line of credit through the National Civil Aviation Fund may reach up to R$2.5 billion per company, while another line of credit is designed to support short-term working capital with government guarantees.

These measures are clearly short-term in nature, intended to cushion immediate impacts and avoid abrupt fare increases. However, this highlights a broader structural issue, that Brazil remains highly exposed to fossil fuel price volatility despite its strong potential to develop SAF, which is still at an early stage.

Petrobras is the leading company in this field and has prioritized co-processing in existing refineries as a lower-cost and faster renewable fuel deployment pathway. In 2025, the National Agency of Petroleum authorized SAF production at the Duque de Caxias refinery (REDUC), with an initial expected output exceeding 580 million liters. This model may be replicated in other facilities, such as Paulínia and Henrique Lage, leveraging existing infrastructure.

Initiatives such as Acelen’s project in Bahia, backed by an estimated R$12 billion investment and based on macaúba feedstock, as well as synthetic fuel developments at the Port of Açu, signal a gradual consolidation of the industry. Still, Global SAF production remains limited, accounting for only about 0.6% of total aviation fuel consumption, and continues to face regulatory and cost-related challenges.

It is within this context that a new subnational initiative stands out. The state of Goiás has recently released a comprehensive study on its potential for SAF production, becoming the first Brazilian state to develop a dedicated and detailed assessment focused specifically on this fuel.

The study highlights Goiás as particularly well-positioned for SAF development, combining feedstock availability, logistical infrastructure, and proximity to key demand centers. The state is a major producer of sugarcane, ethanol, corn, and soybeans. Those are critical inputs for multiple SAF production pathways.

Table 1 : Main feedstocks and viable SAF pathways in Goiás:

Feedstock	Annual Production	Applicable Pathways	Comment
Sugarcane	78.6 million tons	ATJ, HFS	Consolidated supply chain
Ethanol	5.6 billion liters	ATJ	Third largest producer in the country
Corn	13.0 million tons	HEFA (oil); ATJ (corn ethanol)	Growth in corn ethanol; co-products
Soybean	17.0 million tons	HEFA	Excellent feedstock for HEFA
Agricultural Residues	High Potential	FT, HFS	Dispersed logistics; technology not yet consolidated
Urban Waste	Moderate Potential	FT	Technology not yet consolidated

The study also provides concrete estimates of economic feasibility for SAF projects in the state:

Table 2 SAF production indicators in Goiás (adapted):

Technological Pathway	HEFA	ATJ (Sugarcane)	ATJ (Corn)
Feedstock	Soybean oil	Ethanol (Sugarcane)	Ethanol (Corn)
Production Capacity (million liters/year)	230.0	230.0	230.0
Yield (Liters / Ton)	1,060.0	580.0	432.0
Estimated CAPEX (R$ million)	719.21	963.01	1,304.33
Estimated CAPEX (US$ million)	133.19	178.33	241.54
OPEX (R$ million/year)	950.82	1,304.33	963.01
Breakeven (R$/L)	5.83	10.07	10.07

The study indicates that the HEFA pathway is more competitive in the short term, while ATJ, although more costly, benefits from Brazil’s strong ethanol production base. Goiás has strategic locations, such as Rio Verde and Cristalina, which combine high feedstock availability with strong logistical access. Their proximity to major demand hubs, including Goiânia and Brasília, further enhances project attractiveness.

More broadly, Goiás’ initiative signals an important shift in the governance of aviation defossilization in Brazil. While SAF development has largely been driven by federal policy and private sector initiatives, the emergence of state-level planning may accelerate the structuring of a domestic production chain. The study, although preliminary, indicates the state’s desire to become a significant player in this area in the country, which has enormous potential but needs to accelerate its infrastructure, adapt to future international regulations, and begin its participation in this important market.

* Jefferson dos Santos Estevo is a researcher in International Relations and Energy Transition at the Center of Excellence in Hydrogen and Sustainable Energy Technologies (CEHTES) at the Federal University of Goiás. FAPEG Research Fellow. He holds a doctorate in Social Sciences from the University of Campinas.