Advanced BioFuels USA

by Abby Brown, Haley Erickson, and Emily White (National Renewable Energy Laboratory) This report provides information on ethanol fueling infrastructure and industry trends over the last 10 years. It is informed primarily by ethanol fueling station location data collected through the U.S. Department of Energy’s Alternative Fuels Data Center (AFDC) Station Locator from 2011 through 2021 (AFDC 2021a). Industry stakeholders, including the Renewable Fuels Association and Growth Energy, also provided data and additional context around trends seen in the data.

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Nearly all fuel-grade ethanol is sold as E10, a low-level blend of 10% ethanol, which is approved for use in all conventional light-duty vehicles. E15 (10.5%–15% ethanol) is approved for use in model year 2001 and newer conventional light-duty vehicles and flex-fuel vehicles (FFVs). Only FFVs can use E85, an alternative fuel containing 51%–83% ethanol (depending on geography and season).1 Intermediate blends between E15 and E85 are also approved for use in FFVs.2

E85 qualifies as an alternative fuel under the Energy Policy Act (EPAct) of 1992 (AFDC 2022c).

History of E85 Use and Regulatory Support
The EPAct of 1992 requires a certain percentage of federal, state, and alternative fuel provider (e.g., utility) fleet light-duty vehicle acquisitions in defined metropolitan statistical areas to be alternative fuel vehicles (AFVs). Historically, many fleets have acquired FFVs to meet this requirement. In the early 2000s, the United States required the use of ethanol in transportation fuels through the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS), as established by the EPAct of 2005 and extended by the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007. The RFS set minimum requirements for the use of renewable fuels, including ethanol, and created steadily rising usetargets to reach 36 billion gallons of renewable fuel by 2022 (EPA 2021). EPAct 2005 also requires federal fleets to use alternative fuel in fleet dual-fuel vehicles (e.g., FFVs) if the fuel is available within 3 miles of the vehicle’s refueling or garaged locations and does not cost more than gasoline on a per-gallon basis (AFDC 2022a; FEMP 2008, 2021).

Due to RFS and EPAct, ethanol as a transportation fuel grew rapidly in the 2000s. Growth in ethanol use leveled off but continued to increase at a slower rate after 2010 due to the expiration of a federal tax credit for ethanol blenders (EIA 2021). Despite the slowing rate of growth, most gasoline in the United States is still blended with 10% ethanol fuel by volume (EIA 2021). The only decrease in ethanol use in recent history was in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic causing supply chain issues and dramatically reducing vehicle travel and fuel consumption.

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Similar to the impact of RFS on total ethanol use, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Biofuels Infrastructure Partnership and Higher Blends Infrastructure Incentive Program have supported the expansion of E85 infrastructure since 2010. Specifically, the Biofuels Infrastructure Partnership offered competitive matching grants to states, and the Higher Blends Infrastructure Incentive Program offered grants to fueling facilities and retailers to fund the costs of infrastructure for higher-ethanol-blend fuel, including E85. A total of $99.9 million has been awarded to states for ethanol infrastructure development, helping make E85 more accessible to both fleets and individual consumers (USDA 2022a, 2022b). The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration’s Corporate Average Fuel Economy standards also provided support for FFV manufacturing until this ended in model year 2019.

E85 Fueling Stations
As E85 became widely available, the number of fueling stations offering E85 grew dramatically. Between 2000 and 2010, E85 stations grew by 1,932%, with most growth occurring after 2005 (AFDC 2021a). This growth was the result of the legislative and regulatory programs previously outlined, including RFS and EPAct. From 2010 to today, this growth rate slowed but remained positive, with the number of E85 stations growing by 72% (Figure 2). As of December 2021, the majority of E85 stations are public, with only 5.4% of total E85 stations for private fleet use (AFDC 2021a).3

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FFVs
Whereas E85 stations and ethanol consumption have continued to increase in the United States, the number of FFV models available has steadily declined since 2014 (Figure 5). The decrease in FFV models can be attributed to the change in Corporate Average Fuel Economy credits, removing the incentive for original equipment manufacturers to produce FFVs. The loss of production credits and longer vehicle lifespans have resulted in a decrease in FFV model availability.

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Despite the decrease in FFV model availability, FFVs make up the largest share of AFVs, totaling 73% of all registered AFVs (Figure 6). FFV registration growth hovers around 0.04% and is predominantly made up of light-duty vehicles. FFV drivers are attracted to the
performance of E85, given its higher octane content than gasoline, as well as the cost savings of E85 compared to gasoline. As of July 2022, the national average price of E85 was $3.93 per gallon compared with $4.70 per gallon for gasoline, a difference of $0.77 (DOE 2022). Further, the price of FFVs is similar to gasoline vehicles, making FFVs an attractive option for those looking to switch to an AFV.

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Regulatory and incentive support for E85 infrastructure, coupled with demand for E85 from public and private entities and consumers, continues to expand the E85 market. Moving forward, industry experts predict that E85 will be primarily used by individual consumers, especially if E85 prices are lower than gas prices. Similarly, low-level ethanol blends offer an opportunity for gasoline-powered vehicles, including non-FFVs, to reduce emissions on a smaller scale.

For fleets looking to pursue alternative fuels, E85 is particularly well-poised. While some alternative fuels are more expensive and require technological upgrades, several years of vehicle acquisition and transition, and new fueling infrastructure, E85 fueling infrastructure is widely available or otherwise cheaper to install than other alternative fueling infrastructure due to its similarity to and adaptability with gasoline infrastructure. Additionally, as previously discussed, the price of a gallon of E85 is often cheaper than a gallon of gasoline, and FFVs are comparable in price to their gasoline counterparts. The combination of these factors makes E85 an alternative
fuel with a low barrier to entry.

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Consumer Education
The biggest challenge in expanding consumer use of E85 is educating consumers on its use and compatible vehicles. E85 is not alone in that challenge, as other AFVs are experiencing the same problem. In particular, dealerships and salespeople are not trained on how to educate consumers on the vehicles they are purchasing. Successfully addressing the knowledge gap will help E85 reach its growth potential.

Policy Tools
Low-carbon fuel standards could encourage E85 use over gasoline, reduce the price of E85, and increase the demand for a low-emission fuel.

1 ASTM International has a specification for gasoline-ethanol blends containing 51% to 83% ethanol to ensure proper vehicle starting, operation, and safety in varying temperature conditions. For additional information on ASTM D5798, see: https://www.astm.org/d5798-21.html

2 For additional background on E85 and FFVs, see the U.S. Department of Energy’s “Ethanol Basics” fact sheet:
https://afdc.energy.gov/files/u/publication/ethanol_basics.pdf.

3 Informed by Station Locator data. Due to private station data collection challenges, there is likely a data gap
between the number of private stations on record and the number that actually exist.  READ MORE