Don’t Let the Single Biggest Opportunity for the Ethanol Industry Slip Away

by Zoltán Szabó (Climate Ethanol Alliance/Ethanol Producer Magazine) The global maritime sector is massive. Its annual fuel consumption is roughly three times larger than global ethanol production. But today, virtually no renewable fuels are used in maritime.

That could change if the International Maritime Organization (IMO) adopts its proposed Net Zero Framework later this year. The global policy would require marine shippers to use lower-carbon fuels to reduce emissions. The U.S. ethanol industry would benefit immensely from such a program, given ethanol’s low cost, low carbon intensity and strong competitive edge. Other sectors, such as biodiesel and bio-LNG (biomethane), would also benefit. The IMO’s Net Zero Framework (NZF) would not be bad for fossil LNG either, because it has a lower carbon intensity than traditional bunker fuels.

Imagine what the opening of such a massive market would mean for ethanol demand: Several billion gallons of additional demand within the next three to five years and growing thereafter. Given ample feedstock supplies and production capacity, ethanol could easily meet this increased demand. New demand would add value to ethanol and feedstocks worldwide, improving the bottom line for the global industry—including the U.S., Brazil, Europe and beyond.

However, this opportunity could be slipping away. U.S. policymakers opposed adoption of the IMO framework last year and pressured other countries to vote “no.” Unless U.S. opposition is reversed, many in the industry may never know what has been lost. Without U.S. support, adoption of the framework this year seems unlikely.

Marine shippers want the IMO deal to be completed. They see decarbonization coming; all they are asking for is a level playing field and a clear regulatory framework. With modest modifications, the IMO NZF provides exactly that.

The alternative is a hodgepodge of regional regulatory regimes, led by the misguided European FuelEU Maritime regulations, which incorrectly treat crop-based biofuels the same as fossil fuels.

This outcome would be bad not only for the global ethanol industry, but also for shippers worldwide—causing the climate to suffer as well.

From a U.S. perspective, the IMO deal should be viewed as a massive trade deal that sits on the table. The domestic industry would benefit enormously. If U.S. producers were to capture just 5% of the global maritime fuel market, ethanol demand could increase by roughly 4 billion to 5 billion gallons per year. This is a simple message; it just needs to reach the right ears. Yes, year-round E15 is necessary in the short term, but the industry needs more than that to continue expanding, and maritime ethanol fuel markets are critical for the industry’s future.

But time is running out. We are just months away from the IMO framework being reconsidered for adoption. The main mission of the Climate Ethanol Alliance in 2026 is to keep alive the prospect of getting a deal done to approve the NZF program. The vote is scheduled for November 2026. The countdown has begun. We need all hands on deck. READ MORE