Dems Fear another Rural Wipeout Will Reelect Trump

By Elena Schneider and Catherine Boudreau (Politico) Pitches by some 2020 candidates aren’t yet translating into a broad conversation about the needs of rural voters. -- As Democratic presidential candidates descended on the Iowa State Fair, a plane buzzed overhead, an ominous warning fluttering behind it on a banner: “Focus on Rural America.”

Democrats hoping to win the White House in 2020 recognize how critical that advice is after 2016, when Hillary Clinton turned in strong performances in many cities and suburbs but lost rural voters 2-to-1, falling short to President Donald Trump by slim margins in Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Democrats clawed back some gains in rural counties in the 2018 midterm elections, and they want to build on that momentum in 2020.

“Unless a candidate can build bridges across that gap on the basis of values, it’s very difficult to make any policy proposal matter.”

“Right now, no one is building those bridges,” (Mark) Mellman continued. But “if you can move rural voters, even a few points, it becomes possible to win in states you can’t otherwise win.”

There are early signs that Democrats’ wide presidential field is trying to forge a new connection to rural America and show that its party feels rural voters’ pain. In recent weeks, six Democrats — former Vice President Joe Biden, Sens. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota and Kirsten Gillibrand of New York, Mayor Pete Buttigieg of South Bend, Ind., and former Rep. John Delaney of Maryland — rolled out rural policy proposals, swinging through Iowa to cast themselves as the best messengers to voters who flipped from Barack Obama to Trump. Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont unveiled his rural agenda earlier this year.

Those individual pitches aren’t yet translating into a primary-wide conversation, however. During the first two Democratic National Committee debates, only one question focused on farmers, and candidates made only passing mentions of rural voters. (The word “rural” has been uttered 10 times over more than 10 hours of debates so far.) Meanwhile, decriminalizing border crossings and gun control have lately dominated the primary conversation.

Rural Democrats noted that the 2020 candidates’ proposals do address a slew of important rural issues, going beyond “saying ‘ethanol’ and ‘biofuels’ to check those boxes,” said former Sen. Heidi Heitkamp (D-N.D.), who started One Country, a group focused on rural issues, after she lost her reelection bid in 2018. The plans include a hodgepodge of proposals, like investing in infrastructure, addressing shortages in health care, expanding broadband access and taking on climate change in partnership with farmers.

Katie Anderson, a 30-year-old independent voter who also met with Buttigieg, said, “We need more of this, more of them showing up and sitting down with us.” Both Anderson and (Amy) Glick said that although they hadn’t decided on whether they would support a Democrat for president, they both were open to it.

Former Agriculture Secretary and Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack — who just three years ago was a lone soldier in his quest to get the Democratic Party to show up in remote parts of the country — said that in other presidential cycles, candidates often thought if they talked about farmers, they would reach rural Americans. But people living in rural areas often work in education, health care, retail and manufacturing — not farming.

“Because Trump has been such a failure, particularly for rural America, he’s created an opening that would not otherwise be there,” said Mellman, the Democratic pollster.

But a recent survey by Iowa State University of more than 700 farmers in Minnesota, Iowa and Illinois found that 56 percent were still “somewhat or strongly supportive” of Trump’s trade dispute with China, even though the vast majority saw their income take a hit. To make up for some of their losses, the administration since last year has authorized two bailouts totaling up to $28 billion for the farm economy. READ MORE

Excerpt from Mother Jones: Yet the farmers—who will play a key role in the 2020 presidential race in Iowa—didn’t talk much about politics until I asked them, and even then, some were reticent. Despite escalating tensions with China in a trade war that directly affects United States agriculture, the farmers I spoke to said they were unconcerned that China may cut off US imports and confident that President Donald Trump has their best interests in mind.

Sitting beneath the Trump sign at his friend’s stall in the sheep barn, Jay Nelson, 48, said that the trade dispute has negatively impacted both the ethanol plant he manages and the central Iowa farm where he grows corn and soybeans and raises sheep. Still, he said, he is confident that China will be forced to negotiate with the US in order to feed its people.

Brodrick Schmidt, an 18-year-old farmer who wore a Trump hat, noted that Chinese hogs have been suffering from a disease outbreak, which could make American pork more appealing to them.

“If they want to cut off their trades and exports, then so be it—let their people starve,” he said. “Right now, we’re in a good position to actually break through that and end up on top.”

With the economy booming, Schmidt finds it difficult to fault Trump’s trade decisions. “Prices on corn and soybeans are actually higher than they were under the Obama administration, so honestly, if you want to look president-to-president, I’m not really complaining,” he said.

As for the 2020 election, though, Nelson said that he will remain undecided until the Democrats settle on a candidate.

Other farmers said they were less concerned about trade with China than about trade with Canada and Mexico. READ MORE