Covid-19 Fears Spur More Cars on Roads, Threatening Air Quality

by Amena H. Saiyid with assistance from Sylvia Carignan and Christina Brady (Bloomberg Law) Some who normally use mass transit seek safer commute option; State, local officials watch data for air quality impact -- ... More cars on the roads in congested urban centers like New York City—the virus epicenter in the spring—Washington, San Francisco, and Philadelphia means more emissions of smog-forming pollutants and poorer air quality. That could cause some cities to miss federal standards for ground-level ozone, which in turn could mean losing federal highway dollars at a time of already declining local revenues.

The decision of how to travel during the pandemic is tough for people like Brooklyn-based artist and public school teacher Caroline Sykora. Riding the New York City subway to the Claremont International High School in the Bronx starting in September means she risks getting coronavirus, and perhaps infecting dozens of immigrant children. But buying a car to her means contributing to pollution.

The Washington region has to show compliance by Oct. 31, the end of its ozone season, said Stephen Walz, environmental programs director for the Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments, which represents the District of Columbia as well as Maryland and Virginia counties.

If not, Walz said, the region could be downgraded to a moderate level of violation, prompting more stringent controls than it already has on emissions from major air pollution sources like power plants and other industrial facilities.

New York, which is classified as having worse air quality than the Washington region, has until late summer 2021 to submit a plan to reduce ozone levels, and then till late 2024 to show compliance.

New York City’s Metropolitan Transportation Authority, or MTA, which boasts the nation’s largest fleet of buses, subway lines, and commuter trains, saw train ridership plummet 93% in mid-April to 365,835, a record low, while bus ridership dropped 84% from last year.

As of June 24, ridership levels in the country’s most populous city are still a long way from reaching pre-pandemic levels, with trains hovering at 81% of year-ago average ridership, and buses at about half of last year’s levels.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention guidelines for using rail and bus have reinforced fears among regular riders, by recommending social distancing that is nearly impossible on crowded platforms or cars.

Amid stay-at-home orders, vehicle miles traveled fell alongside drops in ridership, down as much as 82% in the Bay area compared to mid-February, according to San Francisco-based StreetLight Data Inc., which collects and analyzes anonymous location records from GPS and smart phones in cars and trucks. Similar drops were recorded in other major cities like New York City, Washington, and Philadelphia.

Now that stay-at-home orders are lifting, vehicle use is recovering more quickly than use of public transport.

Johanna Zmud, a senior research scientist and director of the multi-modal planning division at the Texas A&M Transportation Institute, said the decline in automobile use during the pandemic was tempered by an uptick in truck volume, as well as cars and vans making deliveries to homes.

Zmud said the big question was whether increased driving, and less public transit use, continues in the future ....

Philadelphia is relying especially on the use of telework to “slow down that rush to cars, back to roads, and back to work,” said Sean Greene, air quality manager for the Delaware Valley Regional Planning Commission, the planning agency for the nine-county Greater Philadelphia region.

Following the CDC guidelines, New York’s MTA has posted a 13-point reopening plan that includes deep cleaning and disinfecting trains every night, requiring riders to wear masks, providing hand sanitizers at every station entrance, and working with businesses to stagger work hours. Each of the four urban centers is pursuing a similar approach.

Maryland Environment Secretary Ben Grumbles isn’t taking the return of traffic to pre-pandemic levels as “inevitable.”

“That’s why we are working on transportation electrification and reviewing teleworking policies with colleagues with an even greater sense of urgency,” Grumbles said.

And San Francisco Bay Area’s “Spare the Air” campaign, which in the past has focused on carpooling and transit use, is now urging telework, according to Maloney, from the area’s Metropolitan Transportation Commission.

For instance, Covid-19 related lockdowns were responsible for a 15% to 18% drop in nitrogen oxide emissions, an ozone precursor, in Maryland’s urban areas, including its suburbs of Washington, D.C., according to the Maryland Department of the Environment’s preliminary estimates of air pollution data recorded between March 14 and May 18.

One challenge for transportation and air quality planners is to persuade people going forward that public transit won’t pose a threat to their health. READ MORE