COP30 and the Acceleration of Renewable Energy and Sustainable Fuels

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October 22, 2025

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by Jefferson dos Santos Estevo* (Advanced Biofuels USA) The United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP30) will be held in Belém, Pará, from November 10 to 21, 2025, under the presidency of Ambassador André Corrêa do Lago. In early March 2025, the “First Presidency Letter” was issued, providing political guidance to signal thematic priorities, structure negotiations, and orient the event’s political agenda. On June 20, the Fourth Letter introduced the topic of energy transition, our subject of interest.

The Global Stocktake (GST) is the mechanism under the Paris Agreement that assesses collective progress every five years toward limiting global warming to 1.5°C. COP30 structured its Action Agenda around six thematic pillars, guiding policies and commitments to fully implement this climate goal, the first of which is the “transition in the energy, industry, and transport sectors.”

The energy transition occupies a central position, not only as an environmental objective but also as a strategic driver of a new development model, an area of high interest for the Brazilian government.

Within this pillar, the presidency established four fundamental objectives:

(1) triple renewable capacity and double energy efficiency;

(2) accelerate zero- and low-emission technologies in hard-to-decarbonize sectors;

(3) ensure universal access to energy; and

(4) transition away from fossil fuels in a just, orderly, and equitable manner.

These actions and targets are in direct continuity with the so-called United Arab Emirates (UAE) Consensus, established at COP28 in Dubai in 2023, when 198 Parties adopted the first negotiated text explicitly mentioning the need to “transition away from fossil fuels” while also tripling global renewable capacity and doubling energy efficiency by 2030.

At COP29 in Baku, Azerbaijan, energy transition was on the agenda with new targets, but much of the discussion will take place at COP30, a period for submitting new Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and updating the next five-year cycle of the Paris Agreement.

Within the UAE Consensus framework, the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) was designated to monitor and report global progress on the two central targets: expansion of renewable capacity and doubling energy efficiency. In 2024, IRENA published the report Delivering on the UAE Consensus, noting that installed renewable energy capacity reached 3.9 TWh in 2023, with a new addition of 473 GW, highlighting solar photovoltaic with 346.9 GW. Bioenergy, including biofuels (ethanol, biodiesel, SAF), reached around 149 GW in 2023.

A new report released in October 2025 indicated that installed renewable capacity increased by an additional 582 GW in 2024, representing an annual growth of approximately 15%, the highest ever recorded, reaching a total of 4.443 TW, with solar photovoltaic again accounting for over 70% of this increase. Bioenergy capacity grew to 151 GW, still far below the 2030 target of 308 GW. Some countries, including Japan, Poland, and Brazil, have modified their biofuel mandates.

Despite the increase in production, IRENA emphasizes that bioenergy production and use must scale exponentially, both for electricity generation and for supplying sustainable fuels, including biofuels, biogas, hydrogen, and hydrogen-derived fuels. These sources are essential to replace fossil fuels and reduce emissions in hard-to-decarbonize sectors such as steel, cement, chemicals, aviation, shipping, and heavy transport, which remain highly dependent on conventional energy sources. In 2024, investments in bioenergy increased by 45%, reaching approximately US$19 billion, representing significant progress, although still insufficient to meet global energy transition targets.

Figure 1: Global installed renewable power capacity in the 1.5°C Scenario, 2023, 2024 and 2030

Search: (IRENA, 2025)

In this context, during the COP30 preparatory meeting, the Pre-COP, held in Brasília in October 2025, the Brazilian government announced the initiative “Belém Commitment on Sustainable Fuels”, also called “Belém 4x”, led in partnership with Japan, Italy, and India. The commitment aims to quadruple global production and use of sustainable fuels by 2035, based on evidence presented in another key report, the IEA’s Delivering Sustainable Fuels: Pathways to 2035.

The “Belém 4x” initiative reinforces the capacity of countries with significant renewable potential, such as Brazil, to play a leading role in reorganizing global clean energy supply chains. The IEA report projects that global sustainable fuel use will quadruple by 2035, rising from about 6 exajoules (EJ) in 2024 to over 25 EJ, driven primarily by advanced bioenergy, biogas, and low-carbon hydrogen, with a focus on sectors hardest to electrify. Achieving these targets requires substantial investments in production and distribution infrastructure, policy incentives, technological innovation, and international coordination.

Figure2: Sustainable fuel supply by fuel and demand by sector in the accelerated case, 2024 2035

Search:(IEA, 2025)

The convergence of the targets to triple renewable energy, double energy efficiency, and quadruple sustainable fuel production establishes an unprecedented emissions mitigation tripod in the international climate regime.

This strategy goes beyond substituting energy sources, seeking to redefine the development paradigm itself, combining technological innovation, energy security, and climate justice. By placing energy transition at the center of climate policy, COP30 aims to link decarbonization with poverty reduction, productive inclusion, and economic diversification, especially in Global South countries. In this regard, the Brazilian presidency positions energy transition as a central agenda item for COP30 negotiations, although the specific negotiation tracks have not yet been detailed.

* Jefferson dos Santos Estevo is a researcher in International Relations and Energy Transition at the Center of Excellence in Hydrogen and Sustainable Energy Technologies (CEHTES) at the Federal University of Goiás. FAPEG Research Fellow. He holds a doctorate in Social Sciences from the University of Campinas.

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Excerpt from COP30 Brasil: Two major reports released at the Pre-COP will serve as the foundation for Brazil’s goal of quadrupling the use of sustainable fuels by 2035 and accelerating the global transition to renewable energy. --- The energy transition took center stage on the second and final day of the Pre-COP, held on Tuesday, October 14, in Brasilia. During the event, Brazil’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs launched the Belém Commitment for Sustainable Fuels—known as Belém 4x—an initiative aimed at building high-level political support for the global goal of quadrupling the production and use of sustainable fuels by 2035.

The target is supported by a groundbreaking report from the International Energy Agency (IEA), Delivering Sustainable Fuels – Pathways to 2035.

Belém 4x seeks to promote the worldwide adoption of clean energy sources—such as hydrogen and its derivatives, biogases, biofuels, and synthetic fuels—capable of replacing fossil fuels and contributing to the decarbonization of energy systems and the fight against climate change.

“This initiative seeks the support of as many countries as possible to send a political signal, including to economic stakeholders. Many of these technologies are technically viable but are not yet produced at sufficient scale,” noted João Marcos Paes Leme, Director of the Energy Department at Brazil’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

Japan, Italy, and India have already expressed support for the Brazilian initiative, and more countries are expected to join the international commitment during the COP30 Leaders’ Summit, scheduled for November 6–7 in Belém.

Focus on Renewable Energy

In addition to the IEA report on sustainable fuels, another key study was presented at the Pre-COP—this time focusing on renewable energy and energy efficiency. The report by the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), submitted to the Global Renewables Alliance (GRA) and the COP30 Presidency, shows that although the world reached a record 582 GW of renewable energy capacity in 2024, an additional 1,122 GW per year will be required to meet the 2030 target.

The outlook for energy efficiency is even more concerning, having improved by just 1% in 2024—far short of the 4% annual increase needed. READ MORE

Excerpt from The Molecule Group: Sustainable IndustriesLetter to the COP30 Presidency

As industry leaders from across the sustainable fuels value chain, we encourage the Brazilian COP30 Presidency to drive international collaboration and commitments to increase the production and use of sustainable fuels,

Achieving net zero GHG-emissions will require low carbon fuels to meet approximately 20% of global final energy demand by 2050, which will necessitate a substantial increase in sustainable fuels across all sectors.[1]

Despite record growth, ready availability, and a track record of meaningful decarbonization, sustainable fuels production and use remains far short of their potential, and none of the main sustainable fuel options are on track for a net zero pathway.[2]

We recommend that countries consider the following principles when working to increase the production and use of sustainable fuels by 2035:

Adopt Ambitious Policies

Foster demand by establishing stable, long-term mandates that are technology-neutral and tailored to national circumstances.
Promote the greatest climate benefit by rewarding fuels based on their lifecycle greenhouse gas reductions and crediting net-negative emissions from activities including but not limited to carbon dioxide removal, avoided emissions, and climate-smart agricultural practices.
Encourage investment by providing predictable financial support, such as contracts for difference, loan guarantees, or funding for essential infrastructure.
Maintain accountability by integrating sustainable fuels into national climate and energy plans, including within UNFCCC Nationally Determined Contributions and annual National Inventory Reports.

Support Efficient Markets

Harmonize the use of carbon accounting in policy making between jurisdictions and across voluntary and compliance markets. Consider the inter-operability of lifecycle assessment models, the use of evidence-based modeling inputs, the treatment of biogenic and recycled carbon, and encouraging common lifecycle assessment systems boundaries.
Support market-based transactions and procurement frameworks that recognize the value of environmental attributes for fuels, chemicals, and materials as separate from the underlying commodity, and that are standardized across compliance and voluntary markets.
Recognize the relationship between fuels, chemicals, and materials by promoting the use of sustainable molecules across all applications, creating a level playing field in the use of feedstocks, and supporting the inter-operability of carbon accounting frameworks, market-based transactions, and certification schemes between sectors.
Strengthen sustainability certification schemes and simplify data requirements by improving their compatibility, consistency, and transparency.
Simplify regulations to support diverse feedstock options and the rapid up-scaling of sustainable fuel supply and distribution networks.
Advance global trade through inter-governmental cooperation, facilitating equitable access to sustainable fuels, standardizing market frameworks, and eliminating geographic and sectoral barriers.

Recognize All Environmental and Economic Benefits

Recognize the climate and non-climate benefits achievable throughout sustainable fuels supply chains, including energy security, economic growth in rural and developing regions, reductions in non-GHG air pollutants, improvements in water quality, beneficial land-use impacts, and the circularization of our economy - including through the implementation of climate-smart agricultural practices.
Capitalize on economic opportunities that are inherent in developing new sustainable fuels technologies and infrastructure, especially in emerging markets and rural economies, including by upskilling existing workforces and providing relevant education opportunities, realizing the potential for widespread and equitable benefit from the energy transition.

These Principles represents our collective intent to drive forward the global agenda for sustainable liquid and gaseous fuels, placing our climate commitments and broader environmental goals at the center, and working to ensure sustainable, just and equitable energy progress for all.

[1] International Energy Agency, Net Zero by 2050 – A Roadmap for the Global Energy Sector, p. 105-113

[2] International Energy Agency, Towards Common Criteria for Sustainable Fuels, p. 3 READ MORE

Excerpt from Reuters: Targets for sustainable biofuels use and social aspects of the energy transition will be in focus at this year's United Nations climate summit, COP30, said Francesco La Camera, Director-General at the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA).

COP30 will be held on November 10-21 in Belem, Brazil, where countries are due to present updated national climate commitments and assess progress on renewable energy targets agreed at previous summits.

La Camera said he anticipates a biofuel pledge that could become a target in the final declaration, potentially calling for quadrupled production by 2035 or setting a share target for sustainable aviation fuel in the energy mix.

"I think there will be more focus on the social aspect of the transition and also on the sustainable use of biomass," La Camera said on the sidelines of the Singapore International Energy Week event.

IRENA has prepared a biofuel report for the conference and launched an agreement with the International Civil Aviation Organization to promote biofuel manufacturing, he said.

La Camera said the conference will address how communities can participate in renewable energy projects. READ MORE

Excerpt from OilPrice.com: Next month’s global climate summit could debate and potentially adopt targets for sustainable biofuel production and use, Francesco La Camera, Director-General at the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), said on Monday.

The COP30 climate summit will be held between November 10 and 21 in Belem, Brazil, which is a global leader in biofuels production and use.

“I think there will be more focus on the social aspect of the transition and also on the sustainable use of biomass,” La Camera said at an energy conference in Singapore on Monday, as carried by Reuters.

The participants in the summit would debate biofuels and potentially include a biofuels target in the final declaration, according to IRENA’s chief. The goal could be boosting biofuels production four times by 2035 or setting a target for sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) share in the global energy mix, La Camera said.

Brazil last month launched the Belém Commitment for Sustainable Fuels—known as Belém 4x—an initiative aimed at building high-level political support for the global goal of quadrupling the production and use of sustainable fuels by 2035.

Last month, IRENA and the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) launched a financing initiative to support SAF and clean aviation energy projects globally. READ MORE

Excerpt from Trellis:

Calls are growing for high-integrity carbon markets to complement direct decarbonization and stay ahead of regulations.
To protect forests, biodiversity and Indigenous rights, companies must clean up supply chains and embed sustainability into operations.

...

To date, the climate summits have been a parade of pledges without much hard progress to celebrate. This one, however, nicknamed the “implementation COP,” asks governments to show how they’ll actually meet their climate targets. That may result in ratcheting up pressure on the corporations driving so many emissions. “This COP must ignite a decade of acceleration and delivery,” said U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres on Nov. 6.

However, the heaviest emitters — the U.S., China, India — won’t join COP this time. (President Donald Trump’s withdrawal from the Paris pact is on track to finish in January.) And with key business events in São Paulo, fanfare from individual corporations so far appears muted, despite collaborative groups such as We Mean Business, Principles for Responsible Investment, Ceres and the World Economic Forum.

Here are five calls to action for business likely to emerge as the main sessions start Nov. 10:

Mobilize $1.3 trillion in climate finance

...

Define and scale adaptation finance

...

Only up to $28 billion of this is flowing each year, yet developing countries are going to need hundreds of billions annually by 2030, according to the United Nations’ Adaptation Gap report, issued Oct. 29.

Its message for businesses: Treat adaptation as a central core strategy, not charity. Build resilience into operations. Use your capital and expertise to scale local adaptation finance. Then, prove it through disclosure and measurement.

Protect forests and biodiversity

Biodiversity watchdogs and Indigenous justice groups have cited a July ruling by the International Court of Justice that nations must protect nature and limit their emissions. Such voices are also calling for COP30 leaders to back the Tropical Forests Forever Facility model, released Nov. 6. The financial tool would reward nations that protect rainforests. Land and legal rights for Indigenous populations and sustainable ocean plans are other focus areas.

What does that ask of business? Listen to local communities within value chains, scrub deforestation risks out of sourcing maps and create traceability for commodities, among other strategies.

Accelerate decarbonization and disclosure

...

That pressure especially falls on heavy industry, shipping and other hard-to-abate sectors to prove out their work to decarbonize. It’s likely that COP30 will impose rigorous reporting requirements on companies that currently apply to nations, under the Paris Agreement’s Enhanced Transparency Framework.

...

Support credible carbon markets

A movement is building to accelerate support for well-vetted carbon credits to supplement direct decarbonization work. On Nov. 4, the Coalition to Grow Carbon Markets, which was started by Kenya, Singapore and the U.K. and has since gained broader support, called for strengthening business incentives “to invest in high-integrity carbon credits” including in Article 6 markets, which let countries swap credits with one another. Brazil is proposing an Open Coalition for Carbon Market Integration that would connect such systems across interested nations.

The writing on the wall for businesses integrating carbon credits: Use them strategically because markets, standards and regulations are moving quickly and reputational scrutiny is rising. READ MORE