Commentary: How Long Will Flying Less Remain the Best Way to Reduce Aviation’s Climate Impact?

by Andrew Murphy (Transport & Environment/GreenAir Online) The aviation industry faces a conundrum: aviation emissions need to fall now, but the technical solutions to achieve this take time to reach maturity. Andrew Murphy, Aviation Director at Transport & Environment and Board Member of the Climate Change Advisory Council of Ireland, explains what needs to be done now to address aviation’s climate impact. In its new ‘Roadmap to climate neutral aviation’, the clean mobility NGO Transport & Environment shows that a mix of demand management and technology deployment are needed to bring aviation in line with our climate goals. But the key finding is that for the rest of this decade, the only way to reduce emissions from flying substantially is to reduce flying. In time, however, if we step up the deployment of innovative fuels and require manufacturers to sell zero-emission aircraft, demand management recedes as the most effective way to reduce emissions, he writes.

Aviation emissions need to fall now, but the technical solutions to achieve this take time. Thankfully, the Covid crisis has shown that while technology is scaled up, we have ways to immediately reduce the climate impact of flying. What the pandemic showed was that while aviation as a sector was crucial, not every flight ever taken was so. Physical connectivity isn’t always essential to economic growth and employment, and not every corporate deal needs face-to-face meetings.

With this knowledge, Transport & Environment (T&E) has revised its forecasts in its new Roadmap to climate neutral aviation for the mix of demand management and technology deployment needed to bring aviation in line with our climate goals. Our key finding is that for the rest of this decade, the only way to reduce emissions from flying substantially is to reduce flying.

The second point is that demand management isn’t a “forever solution”. It’s the best solution for now, because the sector has dragged its feet in deploying in-sector emission reductions.

Our analysis shows that if we step up the deployment of innovative fuels and require manufacturers to sell zero-emission aircraft, then over time, demand management recedes as the most effective way to reduce emissions.

Rather than seeing climate measures as a threat, the entire aviation industry should look to them as their best pathway towards an economically and environmentally sustainable future.

That means using their substantial lobbying power to strengthen, not weaken, the proposed legislation. They should provide their technical expertise to help address complex aspects such as non-CO2 effects and provide clearer timelines for deploying zero-emission aircraft. Some in the industry are understanding this already, the others need to follow suit.

We can be optimistic about the possibilities of sustainable aviation, but we shouldn’t be naive about the challenges. Those challenges will be overcome through support for innovators and those providing solutions, not by listening to those who have worked so hard against climate measures. The sooner we do this, the sooner new technologies will overtake flying less as the most effective way to reduce aviation’s emissions. READ MORE