Advanced BioFuels USA

by Matt Herman (Biodiesel Sustainability Now/National Biodiesel Board)  … Today, biomass-based diesel is the primary solution for those who want to displace diesel fuel, reduce emissions, and contribute to cleaner air without turning over their entire fleet. Growing from 20 million gallons of production in 2003 to over 2.8 billion gallons today, this industry has continued to show that it can rise to meet the long-term challenges that confront us[4].

It’s undoubtedly true that certain sectors of the economy that rely on diesel will be electrified, but it is just as true that there are certain sectors of the economy that lack immediate, near-term, or even mid-term electrification or zero-emission solutions. In 2016 the Energy Information Agency reported that the total on-road diesel market for the United States was approximately 49 billion gallons. Of that total, freight trucks comprised approximately 37 billion gallons or 76%. It is projected that fuel demand for this sector will continue to rise through 2050.[5] While flashy startup companies and the mainstream press promise future, silver bullet solutions that will revolutionize these heavy-duty sectors, betting the farm on these solutions puts the energy transition at risk.

One must only look to Nikola, the startup hydrogen truck manufacturer whose market capitalization over the summer of 2020 rocketed to over $34 billion, surpassing Ford ($30 billion) without ever producing a single vehicle. Unfortunately, this valuation would not last as inquisitive analysts quickly realized the company’s projections were based on unrealistic leaps in fuel cell and hydrogen technology as well as electricity prices far below today’s costs.[6] Fortunately, for proven industries like biodiesel and renewable diesel, the quick fizzle of Nikola didn’t allow time for policymakers time to fixate on this technology unicorn. It could have been devastating to the energy transition if regulations were written that disadvantages commercial technologies in the hopes of prematurely favoring non-commercial ones.

Even California’s 2020 Mobile Source Strategy presentation stated they expect 1.5 billion gallons of diesel to still be used in the state in 2045[7]. Beyond terrestrial transport, the International Maritime Organization (IMO) and the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) also recognize that liquid biofuels will play a critical role in their long-term decarbonization efforts.

Today, biodiesel and renewable diesel are reducing emissions and air pollution in all these sectors, going forward they will become an even more critical component to sustainable growth.   READ MORE

[1] https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/

[2] https://www.epa.gov/ghgemissions/inventory-us-greenhouse-gas-emissions-and-sinks

[3] https://www.gov.ca.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/9.23.20-EO-N-79-20-text.pdf

[4] https://www.biodiesel.org/production/production-statistics

[5] https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/pdf/0383(2016).pdf

[6] https://www.wsj.com/articles/nikolas-business-model-relies-on-big-leaps-in-technology-large-declines-in-costs-11601294776

[7] https://ww2.arb.ca.gov/sites/default/files/2020-10/2020_MSS_October_Webinar_Presentation.pdf (slide 65)