Advanced BioFuels USA

by Tom Perkins (The Guardian)  …  At the press preview of the Detroit show, getting reads on the state of the US’s EV transition from analysts, officials, the president, and automakers is like administering a Rorschach test. Many praise automakers’ bold electrification goals, but others are skeptical after years of failed promises and low sales. Some hailed the federal government’s moves, while others say the president’s administration has not gone far enough.

Even Biden seemed to reveal mixed feelings as he test drove an electric Cadillac Lyriq SUV: “It’s a beautiful car, but I love the Corvette,” he said.

Like the president, most Detroit auto show attendees still prefer, and will next buy, a gas-powered car, even if the EVs are the event’s most hyped, said Michelle Krebs, executive analyst for Cox Automotive.

“It’s those flashy, glitzy vehicles that get the attention, and those just happen to be electric right now,” she said. “The EVs get more attention than the numbers that are sold.”

Opinions on the EV transition also partly depend on how one slices and dices the sales numbers. National market share for fully electric vehicles, called battery electric vehicles (BEVs), from January to August climbed to 4.8% compared with 2.3% for the same time period a year ago, industry analyst Edmunds reports. Monthly national BEV market share has remained above 5% since May.

That translates to about 436,000 sales in 2022 through August. Some view that as promising. Others see it as dismal.

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Still, even with the electric focus, no companies introduced a new EV, and Chevrolet, the company with the most EVs on the floor in Detroit, instead rolled out its massive new luxury gas-guzzling Tahoe SUV.

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“Wall Street investors are complaining to [GM chief] Mary Barra, and Ford’s investors are complaining to their brass, saying, ‘Hey, my neighbor has Tesla stock and made a fortune, and I have your stock and it’s in the tank,’” Becker said. “You need to do what they’re doing.”

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“Auto companies make a lot of promises they don’t tend to keep unless there’s a law to back them up,” he added.

But even with all these pressures, the EV market still faces roadblocks. Not least that the average US car is 12.5 years old. “If a Californian buys a 2035 gas-guzzler, that will probably be on the road 20 years later, guzzling and polluting,” Becker added.

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But the promise comes with a caveat. Barra said the company “aspires” to electrify its light-duty vehicle fleet by 2035. It said nothing about its large, luxury gas-guzzlers, which are popular and pull in huge profits for the company.

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But the achievability of GM’s goals are in question. The company has sold fewer than 18,000 BEVs through August 2022, and many of those were the Chevrolet Bolt, a car that Krebs characterized as a “disaster”.

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Ford, with 26,000 BEVs sold this year through August, is second worldwide in sales to Tesla.

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And, unlike its American counterparts, Toyota didn’t have any BEVs on the floor in Detroit, though it did showcase a plug-in Prius Hybrid. Hybrids comprise about 25% of its sales, and analysts say the company has remained focused on them because it doesn’t believe there’s a strong market for BEVs.

“Toyota and Honda are asking the same question – is the consumer really there yet?” Krebs said.

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Are customers ready?

Analysts say price is the No 1 obstacle facing the EV transition. The average EV sale price hit nearly $62,000 in August, up from about $57,500 a year prior. That compares with an average of $47,200 for all vehicles. The average US income is about $65,000, Krebs noted. “That math doesn’t work,” she said.

Cheaper EVs are here, and more are coming. Tesla now sells a $47,000 model, the Bolt is about $32,000, and more models under $40,000 will hit the market in 2023. Tax credits of up to $7,500 made available under the Biden infrastructure bill could help, but stringent requirements will limit their use, and they can be used on hybrids, which still use gas.

And then there are supply problems.

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The US’s inadequate EV charging station network and still shaky technology is also driving away some customers, Caldwell said, adding that installing a home charging station makes the car-buying process even more daunting.   READ MORE

Honda Exec: Lithium-Ion EVs Will Always Be More Expensive Than Gas Cars — Honda will instead focus on a different solution. (Inside EVs)

It’s common to charge electric vehicles at night. That will be a problem. (Washington Post)

Hurricane Ian flood damage to EVs creating ticking time bombs in Florida — Officials and mechanics said they have been dealing with several car fires. (ABC News; includes VIDEO)

China, Russia criticize U.S. electric vehicle tax credit at WTO (Politico Pro)

Excerpt from Inside EVs:  In Germany, a Volkswagen ID.3 will set you back at least €38,000 meanwhile a well-equipped Golf can be had for €8,000 less. In the US, the Chevy Bolt EUV retails for $28,195 (which may sound pretty affordable but it’s important to note the larger ICE Trailblazer is around $7,000 cheaper).

So, why is it that entry-level EVs remain more expensive than their combustion-engine equivalents? Honda’s Vice President of Business and Sales for America, Dave Gardner, was recently quizzed on the matter and stated the following (via The Drive):

“We [Honda] don’t really believe that the current lithium-ion technology is the long-term solution. Solid-State batteries are going to be the game changer for us.”

Mr. Gardner believes solid-state batteries will enable entry-level EVs to be priced “in the neighborhood of what a nice [ICE] vehicle costs.” However, he also admitted that solid-state batteries are still a while away and won’t be used on the brand’s upcoming Prologue crossover. That said, Honda is committed to the development of solid-state batteries and recently announced a $310 million investment in the area.  READ MORE