Biden Administration Weighs Slowing the Shift to Electric Vehicles

February 19, 2024

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by Maxine Joselow (Washington Post) The Environmental Protection Agency is considering relaxing one of its most significant climate change rules — tailpipe emissions limits for cars and trucks — by giving automakers more time to boost sales of electric vehicles, according to two people familiar with the matter.

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Rather than mandating a rapid increase in electric vehicle (EV) sales in the coming years, the agency could delay these requirements until after 2030, the two people said. The individuals spoke on the condition of anonymity because no final decision has been made; the rule will not be finalized until March at the earliest.

The move comes as the Biden administration faces pressure on multiple fronts to weaken its electrification targets, in part because of slowing EV sales and also problems with public EV charging stations.

The New York Times first reported that the EPA is mulling such a change, which would mark a major election-year concession to automakers and labor unions. It comes as President Biden walks a political tightrope by balancing two high-profile priorities: fighting climate change and championing labor rights.

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In April, the EPA issued a proposed rule that called for EVs to account for 67 percent of all new passenger car and light-duty truck sales by 2032. Weeks later, UAW President Shawn Fain wrote that the union was withholding its endorsement of Biden’s reelection campaign over “concerns with the electric vehicle transition.”

In January, the EPA sent the final rule to the White House for interagency review. Soon after, the UAW endorsed Biden at its annual legislative conference in Washington. READ MORE

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Excerpt from CNN: The Biden administration is considering relaxing stringent vehicle emissions rules it proposed last year, giving automakers more time to meet requirements that would make them sell more electric vehicles, according to two sources familiar with the plan.

The Environmental Protection Agency’s vehicle emissions rule is a key plank of President Joe Biden’s climate agenda. Biden has made the transition to EVs a signature issue of his presidency, stressing the economic impacts in addition to the boost for the climate.

Instead of a previously proposed rule that would rapidly increase the number of EVs sold to meet strict emissions requirements, the EPA is considering delaying these requirements until after 2030, the two people said. The EPA rule is still not finalized and is expected to be released in the spring.

However, one source familiar with the plan said the EPA emissions rule will ultimately reduce nearly as much emissions as the original proposal – it will do it gradually and build in more flexibility for automakers in the beginning.

When they unveiled their proposed vehicle emissions rule last April, EPA officials said they were considering several different emissions proposals, which could result in anywhere from a 64% to 69% electric vehicle adoption rate by early next decade, starting with model year 2027 vehicles.

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The United Auto Workers union – a key group that recently endorsed Biden for president in 2024 – has long been sounding the alarm about what a shift to EVs means for their workers. And former President Donald Trump has railed against EVs in his speeches as he seeks the Republican nomination for president. READ MORE

Excerpt from Reuters: The Biden administration and automakers are in the final stages of negotiating over ambitious new rules to accelerate the electric-vehicle transition that could cost Detroit's automakers billions and fuel an election-year clash over climate policy.

The White House could enact proposed Environmental Protection Agency regulations as soon as March that would mandate dramatic reductions in tailpipe emissions. The administration proposal would require boosting U.S. EV market share to 67% by 2032 from less than 8% in 2023.

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General Motors (GM.N), opens new tab, Ford (F.N), opens new tab and Stellantis (STLAM.MI), opens new tab — the European parent of U.S.-based Ram and Jeep - have warned they cannot profitably transition their truck-heavy U.S. fleets that quickly, according to a Reuters analysis of automakers’ sales data and a review of comments to regulators.

The United Auto Workers, which represents about 146,000 workers at the Detroit Three, has endorsed Biden for re-election. But the union has told the administration its drive for EVs puts jobs at risk.

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Automakers endorsed an earlier administration target to boost EVs to 50% of new vehicle sales by 2030. Groups representing auto dealers have joined in criticism of more ambitious targets, citing the slowdown in EV sales growth.

The Alliance for Automotive Innovation, which represents the Detroit Three and other established automakers, said the proposals could expose U.S. automakers to $14 billion in fines for failing to hit the CO2 targets.

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Elon Musk and Tesla, the U.S. EV market leader, have countered that the Biden proposals should be even tougher.

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The impending rules also have implications for Biden’s re-election campaign. Michigan, home to thousands of UAW members who build Detroit-brand trucks and SUVs, is a pivotal state in the contest to capture the White House.

Former President Donald Trump has made bashing EVs a key campaign strategy — branding them as a job-killing “hoax” and a capitulation to China.

Ford, GM and Stellantis, in written comments to the agency, have urged the administration to reduce potentially costly conflicts among overlapping regulations administered by the Transportation Department, Energy Department and the state of California. Those conflicts could result in "added costs for OEMs that will impact jobs, capital investments, and

ultimately the success of the transition" to EVs, GM wrote.

GM indicated in public comments that new emissions rules should allow for a slower ramp up of EV sales toward the 2032 goal. But GM also said Energy Department proposals to reduce emissions credits generated by EV sales "will result in disproportionately higher compliance costs for GM and the Detroit 3."

Stellantis criticized the EPA in its written comments for "completely ignoring the market benefit of plug-in hybrid electric vehicle" technology. The automaker plans a plug-in hybrid Ram pickup and currently sells Jeep and Chrysler plug-in hybrid models.

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Non-union Tesla dominates U.S. electric-vehicle sales.

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Gasoline engines today are far more efficient than those of the 1970s. But automakers have used efficiency gains to provide customers more horsepower or larger vehicles, EPA data show.

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GM had eschewed hybrids for the U.S. market as a waste of resources. In February, however, GM Chief Executive Mary Barra said GM is now working on plug-in hybrids for the U.S. market in response to rising sales of hybrids.

Both Ford and GM have struggled to sell their full-sized EV pickups. Ford in January cut 2024 production of the F-150 Lightning to one shift, reversing earlier plans to accelerate to three shifts daily.

GM’s new Silverado EV sold just 461 copies last year. READ MORE

Excerpt from CNBC: John Bozzella, president and CEO of auto industry trade group the Alliance for Automotive Innovation (AAI), said on Sunday that the next three or four years are critical for the development of the EV market.

“Give the market and supply chains a chance to catch up, maintain a customer’s ability to choose, let more public charging come online, let the industrial credits and Inflation Reduction Act do their thing and impact the industrial shift,” Bozzella said. READ MORE

Excerpt from Washington Examiner: Part of the reason that consumers have been hesitant to transition to EVs is due to a lack of charging stations nationwide and the higher sticker price. Former President Donald Trump has also tried to convince consumers that EVs don’t work.

It also came after the automakers asked for more time to address these concerns, including bringing down the high EV prices and installing more charging stations across the country. Autoworkers have also asked for more time to unionize the new EV car plants that are sprouting up in the South. READ MORE

Excerpt from E&E News: The rule is still under White House review, and administration staff have nine more meetings scheduled with companies, environmental groups and state air regulators who hope their testimony has a last-minute impact.

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E&E News spoke with dozens of advocates, analysts and former federal officials who said they hadn’t been briefed and assume the rule for passenger vehicles is still in flux.

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EPA spokesperson Tim Carroll said the agency’s tailpipe emissions limits for cars and light- and medium-duty trucks are still in the interagency review process. While he declined to comment on the final rule, Carroll said the agency is “committed to finalizing a technology standard that is readily achievable, secures reductions in dangerous air and climate pollution and ensures economic benefits for families.”

The details in the Times‘ story match most closely with “Alternative 3,” a less aggressive option EPA included when it unveiled its more stringent proposal last year. That standard would result in the same endpoint as EPA’s proposal: a 56 percent reduction in fleetwide average carbon emissions by model year 2032, compared with model year 2026.

But EPA’s draft rule front-loads those reductions, while “Alternative 3” slow-rolls them.

The EPA proposal would demand that automakers cut fleetwide averages of planet-warming pollution from new cars and trucks by more than 18 percent between model years 2026 and 2027, ramping up to more than 40 percent by model year 2029.

Alternative 3 would instead cut fleetwide average emissions by less than 12 percent between model years 2026 and 2027, and less than 30 percent by model year 2029. The steepest reductions would be reserved for the 2030s.

The rules set performance standards based on grams of carbon dioxide per mile, so they don’t mandate EV sales. But the steeper cuts in the EPA proposal assumes automakers will shift to battery-powered cars very rapidly. If the Biden administration chooses to instead finalize something like Alternative 3, automakers would not be under that same time pressure.

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Arthur Wheaton, director of labor studies at Cornell University’s School of Industrial and Labor Relations, said the potential changes may be an effort to give voters comfort that Biden is not “going to take away my muscle car or my big heavy-duty pickup truck in an election year.”

But he said a rule that allows automakers needed time to build out charging infrastructure, bring down battery costs and stoke consumer demand for EVs might produce more uptake in the long run than a standard that is more aggressive but leads to higher costs.

The result could be more EVs on the road in the long run, he said. READ MORE