ASA: 2025 Update on Soybean-Crush Expansion

by Scott Gerlt (American Soybean Association/Biobased Diesel Daily) The soybean-processors industry has been expanding over the past two years. The practical domestic capacity of the industry has increased from about 2.23 billion bushels per year at the beginning of 2023 to about 2.55 billion bushels per year at the beginning of 2025, for an increase of 14 percent. Outstanding announcements for expansion would increase the total to over 2.78 billion bushels per year by 2030 if they are actualized. Since 2023, nine new or expanded plants have increased domestic crush capacity while another seven are still slated to expand or come online. This article provides an update to a previous article on this topic published by the American Soybean Association in November 2022.

Soybeans are almost never used whole but are instead “crushed” to produce soybean meal and soybean oil. Approximately 80 percent of the crushed bean results in soybean meal, which is used for protein content in livestock feed, and hulls. The other 20 percent is soybean oil, which is primarily used for human consumption and biofuels. The latter has primarily driven the growth in the crush sector, as rising renewable diesel production has elevated the domestic demand for soybean oil (for a background of renewable diesel, see this article). Domestic renewable capacity (including renewable jet fuel and biointermediates) went from 791 million gallons per year in 2021 to 4.58 billion gallons currently.

The expectations of increased demand for soybean oil has expanded the geographic boundaries of soy processing abilities in the U.S.

Figure 2 shows the expansion by state compared to soy production in the state. North Dakota was only able to process 6 percent of its soy production in the state before 2023. That percentage has increased to 47 percent. Kansas capacity has increased from about 38 percent of production to 70 percent the past couple of years. The large increase in Louisiana is from one expanding plant along the Mississippi River. It is a swing plant that can process more oilseeds than just soybeans.

After running at high levels over the past several years, crush margins have fallen significantly (Figure 4). Note that the plant would have to cover all other operational costs and overhead out of the crush margin. Imported biofuel feedstocks have displaced soybean oil in biofuels. Low mandated blending obligations set by EPA and uncertainty around biofuel tax credits have also contributed to soybean-oil price drops. Plentiful meal supplies from the increased crush have also pushed down meal prices.

These factors—coupled with higher construction costs from higher steel and aluminum prices, increased interest rates and other increases—have caused more uncertainty about the feasibility of plants further in the future without better biofuel-blending levels starting in 2026. It also raises concerns about stranded assets if blending levels under the Renewable Fuel Standard are not increased. READ MORE