Agricultural Land Lost to Development in the Midwest

August 06, 2024

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Mujahidul Islam, Ani Katchova, and Carl Zulauf (farmdoc daily) Conversion of agricultural land to developed land during the 21st Century in eight Midwestern states is examined. This loss of agricultural land to development is a long-standing topic of discussion at the national and state level. Using what is likely the best available data set, we find that development accounted for 55% of the 1.6 million acre loss of agricultural land in these states during the 21st Century. Thus, while urban expansion is important, loss of agricultural land is more than development. Within the context of conversion to development, the role of large urban areas is paramount as 81% of agricultural land lost to development in the eight states occurred within Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs). If a desire exists to reduce the loss of agricultural land to development, expansion of large urban areas must be addressed.

Data Sources

The National Land Cover Database (NLCD), produced by the Multi-Resolution Land Characteristics (MRLC) consortium, has leading-edge capabilities for assessing and projecting changes in land cover. The current analysis uses two satellite images and other supplementary cartographic datasets to analyze land use change from 2001 to 2021 in the Midwestern states of Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Ohio, and Wisconsin. The analysis period is the earliest to the latest years in the dataset. A wide variety of land conversions can be studied. In this article, we focus solely on the conversion of agricultural to developed land. Data Note 1 contains a detailed description of the definitions of these land categories.

Agricultural Land Lost to Development by Midwestern State

According to NLCD images from 2001 and 2021, agricultural land in the eight Midwestern states decreased from 150,312,467 acres in 2001 to 148,716,812 acres in 2021, a total decline of 1,595,655 acres (1.06%) (Table 1). Of the agricultural land lost, 877,386 acres (55% of 1,595,655) were converted into developed land, likely due to urbanization, infrastructure expansion, or other development activities. Other agricultural land losses included conversion to forest, barren land, open water, and grassland.

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Development accounted for 90% of the loss of agricultural land in Iowa between 2001 and 2021....

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When measured as number of acres, Illinois had the highest amount of agricultural land lost to development (155,653 acres), followed by Indiana (133,243 acres) and Wisconsin (128,679 acres).

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Agricultural land lost to development by Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs)

To help understand the dynamics of the agricultural land use change and aid in regional planning and development, an analysis was carried out at the Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) level. The Office of Management and Budget (OMB) defines an MSA as a geographical region consisting of a core city with “a population of at least 50,000” and maintaining strong economic and social interactions between the core city and the surrounding communities. The eight Midwestern states have 85 MSAs in total.

Of the agricultural land in the Midwestern states lost to development over the last two decades, 81% has occurred within MSAs. The share was highest in Illinois (89%) (Figure 1). Indiana, Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin also lost over 80% of their agricultural land to development within MSAs. The MSA share was lowest in Iowa at 69%. The share for both Missouri and Ohio was 77%.

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References

Multi-Resolution Land Characteristics Consortium. (2021). National Land Cover Database class legend and description. Retrieved from NLCD 2021 Land Cover (CONUS) | Multi-Resolution Land Characteristics (MRLC) Consortium

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Food or Fuel: The Energy Transition’s Battle for Land (Bloomberg Switched On; includes AUDIO)
Loss of US Farmland in the 21st Century: The National Perspective from the Census of Agriculture (farmdoc Daily)
Loss of US Farmland in the 21st Century, Part II: Regional Perspective for Major Land Use Categories from the Census of Agriculture (farmdoc Daily)

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Excerpt from farmdoc Daily: One of the widely-watched variables tracked by the US Census of Agriculture is land in farms. This article is the first of two that examines changes in land in US farms between the Agricultural Censuses of 1997 and 2022. This quarter-century period is of interest because the 1996 Farm Bill enacted a fundamental change to US farm policy by eliminating acreage set aside programs that in various forms had existed since modern US farm support policy began in 1933, thus giving farmers, with a few exceptions, the freedom to decide what crops to plant and not plant. Since this seminal change in US farm policy, land in US farms has declined by 74.7 million acres or -8%. By far, pastureland declined the most, accounting for 88% of the total decline. The other two major farmland categories also declined: woodland by -6% and cropland by -2%.

Land in Farms

The 1997 Agricultural Census reported 955 million acres of land in US farms (see Figure 1). Cropland, defined as harvested plus abandoned and failed farmland, accounted for 34% of these acres, with woodland accounting for 8% and pastureland for 52%. These three categories totaled 94% of all land in US farms in 1997.

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Acre Change from 1997 to 2022

The 2022 Agricultural Census reported 880 million acres of land in US farms, or 75 million fewer acres than the 1997 Agricultural Census (see Figure 2). Cropland and woodland declined by roughly -5 million acres while pastureland declined by -65 million acres. Pastureland accounted for 88% of the total decline. Definitions are nearly identical between 1997 and 2022 (see Data Note 1). Therefore, a change in definition is not explaining the decline of land in US farms.

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Percent Change from 1997 to 2022

Since the number of acres varies substantially by land use category, it is important to also look at percent change in acres. There were 8% fewer acres of land in US farms in 2022 than in 1997 (see Figure 3). Pastureland had the largest percent loss, -13%. Percent decline was roughly half as large for woodland, -6%; but only -2% for cropland. As a result of these differential percent changes between 1997 and 2022, cropland’s share of land in farms increased from 34% to 36% while pastureland’s share declined from 52% to 49%.

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Most (88%) of the decline occurred in pastureland. It is thus incorrect to equate the loss of farmland to a loss of cropland. Cropland has declined by only -2% while pastureland has declined by -13%.

The decline in cropland is consistent with farmers being given the freedom to decide not to plant land and yet continue to receive farm commodity program payments.

The sizable decline in pastureland is consistent with the growth in confinement animal production. READ MORE

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Planted cropland includes cropland that was harvested plus cropland that was abandoned or failed. Woodlands and pastureland overlap since pastureland includes woodlands that are pastured. For the Continental US, 34% of woodlands were pastured in 2022. In 1997, 40% were pastured.

Besides the major land use categories that are the focus of this study, other farmland use categories are (1) land in farmsteads, homes, buildings, livestock facilities, roads, wasteland, etc.; (2) cropland in summer fallow.; and (3) cropland idle or used for cover crops or soil improvement, but not harvested and not pastured or grazed. In 2022, these three land uses accounted for, respectively, 4%, 2%, and 4% of all US land in farms.

Share by Major Land Use Category, 2022 Agricultural Census

In 2022, the largest use of farmland was woodland in the Northeast (48%); cropland in the Midwest (72%), Mid-Atlantic (51%), Mid-South (46%), and Deep South (34%); and pastureland in the Rocky Mountains (86%), Southern Plains (74%), Pacific (52%), and Northern Plains (51%) (see Table 2). The largest use is dominant as its share exceeds the next largest share by more than 10 percentage points in every region except the Deep South (29% for woodland vs. 34% for planted cropland).

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Acre Change by Major Land Use Category from 1997 to 2022

Each region had less farmland in the 2022 Agricultural Census than in the 1997 Agricultural Census (see Table 3). Pastureland declined the most in all nine regions. Planted cropland declined in seven regions. Exceptions were the Northern Plains and Mid-South. Woodland increased in four regions (Southern and Northern Plains, Rocky Mountains, and Northeast) and declined in five regions (Midwest, Mid-South, Deep-South, Mid-Atlantic, and Pacific).

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Percent Change in Major Land Use Category from 1997 to 2022

Because acres in farms vary notably by regions, a more complete picture of regional change is gained by examining percent change. Between 1997 and 2022, percent decline in farmland was least in the Northern Plains (-4%) and highest in the Pacific region (-14%) (see Table 4). Double digit percent declines also occurred in the Rocky Mountains, Mid-South, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast. READ MORE