‘Unacceptable’: Corn Growers Blast USDA after Major Crop Data Error Comes to Light

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October 26, 2026

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by C.J. Miller (Hoosier Ag) National Corn Growers Association (NCGA) leadership is calling out the federal government after USDA admitted late Friday to a major data processing error in its September crop reporting—a mistake corn industry leaders say severely damaged grain markets at the worst possible time for Midwest producers.

In a sharp rebuke issued Friday, NCGA President Matt Frostic, a Michigan farmer, condemned the error, linking recent USDA reporting shifts directly to sharp sell-offs in corn futures that have hammered farm balance sheets across the country.

“Recent reports by NASS have cost corn growers BILLIONS of dollars in market value, at a time when profit margins were already marginal, at best, and the cost for fuel and other inputs are at all-time highs,” Frostic stated. “Corn prices dropped in conjunction with the release of recent reports and have only continued to drop. An error of this magnitude is unacceptable, and only further erodes farmer confidence in the agency’s ability to produce statistically sound and accurate reports.

“NASS needs to seriously examine the processes and procedures that led to this mistake and take immediate action to prevent it from occurring again. We are anxious to meet with the service to understand their plans for improvement and how they intend to rebuild farmer confidence in these reports,” said Frostic.

Frostic’s warning comes on the heels of an official statement released Oct. 23 by USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS). The agency acknowledged that a technical processing error corrupted September corn plant populations, ear counts, yields, and production data for Kansas and Nebraska, while also distorting 10-state Midwest averages and national yield forecasts.

Corrected Baseline, Unchanged Forecast

While NASS quietly updated its database to fix the September baseline—raising Nebraska’s September yield estimate from 177 to 182 bushels per acre and lifting the September U.S. average from 178.5 to 178.8 bushels—the agency refused to adjust its controversial October projections.

NASS emphasized that its Oct. 9 forecast of a 181.2-bushel-per-acre national average yield and a total 16-billion-bushel crop was reviewed, validated, and remains entirely unchanged.

For NCGA and state commodity groups, that decision leaves unresolved questions. Much of the October report’s market-shaking yield hike originated in Nebraska, where NASS originally reported an 11-bushel month-over-month jump (from 177 to 188). By revising September’s baseline up to 182, NASS reframed that increase as a 6-bushel gain—yet the market sell-off triggered by the initial October numbers remains unaddressed.

Regional Fallout for Indiana and Michigan Producers

Frostic’s focus on the financial impact hits close to home for producers across Indiana and Michigan who are currently finishing up harvest:

Cash Market Pressure: Because NASS held its national production forecast above 16 billion bushels, futures prices remain depressed. Local elevators, river terminals, and processors throughout the Eastern Corn Belt continue to reflect that heavy national paper supply in weak cash bids and compressed basis.
Marginal Yields and Tight Margins: Weather variability across northern Indiana and Michigan’s Thumb meant many fields produced average or slightly below-average yields. With low crop prices failing to cover high fixed seed, fertilizer, and fuel costs, farmers are feeling an intense margin squeeze.
Marketing Strategy Disruptions: The sequence of report updates and sudden price drops has complicated fall marketing decisions, forcing growers to evaluate whether to sell grain off the combine at a discount or absorb commercial storage costs into the winter.

Restoring Trust in Federal Statistics

As harvest wraps up across the Midwest, grower leaders emphasize that transparent and reliable federal data is vital for risk management, crop insurance, and daily grain marketing.

While NASS indicated it is exploring expanded technology and automation to prevent future calculation mistakes, NCGA maintains that restoring producer trust will require far greater accuracy and accountability from the agency moving forward. READ MORE

Related articles

USDA September Corn Forecast Error Raises Fresh Data Concerns (Farm Policy News)
NASS Corn Correction Rewrites September Baseline, Leaves October Forecast Intact (Ag Policy and Markets Daily)
USDA Corrects Corn Yield Data, Raising Fresh Concerns Across US Grain Markets (AgroLatam)
USDA Corrects September Corn Forecast, Raising More Doubts About Data (Reuters/Successful Farming)
USDA Admits Corn Data Error in September Report, But Controversial 181.2-Bu. Yield Forecast Stands (AgWeb; includes VIDEO)
Corn Growers Respond to NASS Report Correction (American Ag Network)
USDA Acknowledges Corn Crop Yield Error: After Rare USDA Correction, Corn Growers Question Crop Data Reliability (DTN Progressive Farmer)

Excerpt from Farm Policy News: AgroLatam’s Marcus Ellington reported that “the revisions have renewed debate over the influence of USDA crop reports on corn futures, farm profitability and grain marketing strategies.”

“For U.S. farmers, the controversy extends beyond statistical accuracy. USDA forecasts influence commodity prices, crop insurance decisions, storage strategies and financial planning across the agricultural supply chain,” Ellington reported. “Questions about data reliability have also emerged following federal workforce reductions that raised concerns about the agency’s technical capacity. As producers navigate tight margins and rising production expenses, transparent and dependable crop estimates remain critical to market confidence and agricultural competitiveness.”

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Ag Policy and Markets Daily’s Jim Wiesemeyer wrote that “the correction resolves an important Nebraska data inconsistency and substantially reduces the apparent monthly yield jump. It leaves October’s larger national crop forecast standing — and leaves NASS with the task of explaining how an error that affected market-sensitive forecasts passed through its publication controls. And why did it take so long for NASS to issue a correction?” READ MORE

Excerpt from AgroLatam: The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) corrected its September corn production estimates on October 23, 2026 , after identifying a processing error affecting yield calculations in Nebraska and Kansas. The review has intensified concerns analysts among farmers, grain traders and agriculturals about the reliability of federal crop forecasts. READ MORE

Excerpt from Reuters/Successful Farming: Earlier this month, a sharp increase in the USDA’s estimate for Nebraska’s yield from September helped boost the national average, hurt crop prices, and drew skepticism from farmers and analysts. The increase would have been smaller if USDA had correctly reported its September yield estimate last month.

The Nebraska Corn Board, in a letter obtained by Reuters, called on NASS last week to explain the increased yield estimate in October and whether NASS flubbed the September estimate.

“The yield adjustment doesn’t follow any logic in using data within the crop production report or weekly crop progress, specifically crop ratings,” said Kelly Brunkhorst, the board’s executive director, in the letter. “Nebraska corn farmers deserve answers!”

The USDA on Friday revised its national September yield estimate to 178.8 bushels per acre from the original September estimate of 178.5 bushels per acre. October crop forecasts were reviewed, validated and have not changed, according to the agency.

The USDA previously said it was launching a pilot project that will rely more heavily on technology as part of a broader effort to improve crop acreage and yield estimates.

Thousands of employees left USDA last year as part of President Donald Trump’s drive to shrink the federal government, and experts worry the staff reductions hobbled the agency’s ability to produce accurate and timely data. READ MORE

Excerpt from AgWeb: For context, USDA’s August forecast for Nebraska was 183 bu. per acre, so the September-to-October jump more than recovered a drop in between. The size of the increase raised questions about how Nebraska could see such a major change in a single month.

The controversy intensified after analysts examined the field sample data. In September, the data suggested 90% of Nebraska fields sampled were nonirrigated, with only 10% irrigated. In October, the balance of ear counts was more typical, with 55% irrigated and 45% nonirrigated.

The samples are collected by the National Association of State Departments of Agriculture (NASDA) for USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service. The shift prompted farmers and analysts to question why irrigated fields appeared to make up such a small share of the September sample.

As AgBull.com’s Jim Wiesemeyer points out, Friday’s correction only proves a processing error, not a proven fieldwork failure.

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The big question in Nebraska, according to Meyer, was why enumerators didn’t reach more irrigated fields in September. Irrigated and nonirrigated ground is “sprinkled amongst each other,” he says, so he wonders whether a geographic problem kept crews out of certain areas.

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“The number that’s printed is the number that the algorithms trade. It clearly changes the trajectory of everything that we’ve thought for some time,” says Matt Bennett, of AgMarket.Net. READ MORE; includes VIDEO