Study Projects Expansion of Biofuel Production with R$110 Billion by 2035

(Brazil Ministry of Mines and Energy (Google Translation)) The document presents projections on the supply and demand of biofuels in Brazil, in a scenario of strengthening the fair and inclusive energy transition. -- This Monday (09/08), the Biofuels Offer Notebook was launched , an integral part of the Ten-Year Energy Expansion Plan (PDE) 2035. The study, prepared by the Ministry of Mines and Energy (MME), in partnership with the Energy Research Company (EPE), presents detailed projections on the evolution of the supply and demand for biofuels in Brazil, considering the scenario of advancing energy transition and strengthening public policies for the sector.

According to the document, ethanol supply is expected to grow by approximately 30% over the next decade, reaching 51 billion liters in 2035. Corn ethanol, which accounted for 20% of production in 2024, will gain prominence and is expected to account for more than 30% of total supply in 2035. Demand for fuel ethanol will reach 48.2 billion liters, ensuring a positive balance throughout the analysis horizon.

The study also projects a technical potential for generating an average of 5.9 GW of bioelectricity from sugarcane bagasse at the end of the period, in addition to 6.4 billion Nm³ of biomethane derived from sugarcane residues (vinasse, filter cake, straw and tips), equivalent to approximately 10% of national natural gas consumption in 2024.

Regarding biodiesel, projected demand reaches 13.9 billion liters in 2035, with soybean oil remaining the main raw material. The projected installed capacity for the future is sufficient to meet the legal targets for mandatory blending, with surpluses that can be used for maritime transport and other uses. The National Biodiesel Production and Use Program (PNPB) continues to play a strategic role in supporting family farming, stimulating social inclusion and income generation in rural areas.

The booklet also details the evolution of sustainable aviation fuels (SAF). Starting in 2030, announced projects are expected to produce 1.7 billion liters per year, reaching 2.8 billion by 2035. This production will be sufficient to meet, on average, 66% of the emissions reduction targets established by CORSIA and ProBioQAV over the ten-year period.

In total, it is estimated that the investments needed to support the expansion of the biofuels chain until 2035 will reach R$110 billion, including new biorefineries, modernization of plants and diversification of raw materials.

Excerpt from SEE News: Brazil is set to channel an estimated US$21 billion into expanding its biofuel sector by 2035, according to a comprehensive analysis released by the Ministry of Mines and Energy, according to the Ministry of Mines and Energy’s official analysis.

The study forecasts substantial growth across biofuels, bioelectricity, biomethane, and sustainable aviation fuel, underscoring the nation’s ambition to consolidate its position as a global leader in renewable energy.

The report highlights Brazil’s vast potential for bioelectricity generation, powered by agricultural residues that could provide a scalable source of clean energy. Biomethane, derived from agricultural and industrial waste, is identified as another key growth area, offering a sustainable alternative to conventional natural gas and supporting energy security.

Demand for biodiesel is projected to remain strong, driven by the country’s extensive transportation sector. The analysis stresses the importance of sustainable raw material sourcing to balance expansion with environmental stewardship.

Sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) also emerges as a central focus, with projections suggesting that current and planned initiatives could generate significant volumes to help meet international aviation emissions reduction targets.

To achieve these goals, Brazil will need strategic investments in advanced biorefineries, the modernization of existing facilities, and diversification of feedstocks, alongside new infrastructure to support large-scale deployment.

The government’s analysis suggests that biofuel production will not only satisfy domestic renewable mandates but could also provide surpluses for industrial use and maritime transport, strengthening Brazil’s role in the global energy transition. READ MORE