State of Sustainable Fleets: Transformation Introduces Peak Uncertainty, but Clean Fleet Technology Still Expands Nationally

April 29, 2025

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(Manila Times/Globe Newswire) Now in its sixth year, the 2025 State of Sustainable Fleets Market Brief, released today (April 28, 2025), provides a comprehensive analysis of an industry confronting unprecedented regulatory uncertainty while demonstrating growth and resilience through continued investment in sustainable transportation solutions. Authored by TRC Companies, a global professional services firm providing integrated strategy, consulting, engineering and applied technologies in support of the energy transition, the findings were unveiled at the Advanced Clean Transportation (ACT) Expo in Anaheim, California, the premier annual conference for commercial transportation professionals.

The past year has marked a period of significant transformation, characterized by rapid federal policy shifts and persistent state-led efforts to advance zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) and near-zero-emission (NZE) technologies, such as electric and natural gas vehicles, respectively. Recent regulatory changes and federal funding adjustments, coupled with substantial economic uncertainty, have introduced a period of peak complexity for fleet operators.

Despite this, more than $13.5 billion in state and local funding remains available for ZE and NZE projects, driving continued adoption of renewable fuels, compressed natural gas vehicles (CNG), battery-electric vehicles (BEVs), and hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs).

"The rapidly evolving policy landscape and questions around how that will impact technology investments have introduced uncertainty for fleets,” said Nate Springer, Vice President of Market Development at TRC Companies. "Nevertheless, the industry's response-marked by growing adoption of renewable fuels, innovative infrastructure solutions, and strategic partnerships-underscores strong fundamentals for continued growth of many clean fleet solutions.”

In 2024, renewable diesel (RD) production increased by 28% in the first half of the year compared to the same period in 2023, with fleets reporting a record-high 39% adoption rate in the history of the annual fleet survey. Renewable natural gas (RNG) supply has surged by 234% over the past six years, supported by a 63% increase in natural gas stations offering RNG and vehicle sales hold steady. Meanwhile, BEV deliveries reached a record 41,472 medium- and heavy-duty (MD/HD) units, driven largely by commercial cargo vans and pickup trucks, which accounted for 92% of new registrations, despite pauses and adjusted forecasts by several manufacturers last year. Hydrogen fuel cell deployments also gained momentum despite two high-profile manufacturer bankruptcies, with 75 new transit buses and 165 MD/HD vehicles delivered in 2024.

"Volvo Trucks North America is proud to return as a title sponsor of the State of Sustainable Fleets Market Brief. This annual report provides the industry with key data points on where the market is headed with new sustainable transportation solutions. As we face regulatory uncertainty, we continue to see fleets adopting new, cleaner, safer, and more efficient transportation solutions. Volvo Trucks remains focused on our three-pillar strategy to provide the industry with solutions that are ready now and built for the future - including the all-new Volvo VNL, the all-new Volvo VNR, and our market-leading Volvo VNR Electric,” said Peter Voorhoeve, President, Volvo Trucks North America. "We look forward to hosting this year's State of Sustainable Fleets panel discussion in the Volvo Trucks booth at ACT Expo and continuing to support fleets on their journey toward sustainable freight movement.”

"At Chevron, we believe it's going to take all forms of energy to meet the growing global energy demands and are invested in multiple products for both today and the future,” said Stacey Orlandi, President of Chevron Renewable Energy Group. "By focusing on products that leverage our strengths, we can continue to deliver affordable, reliable and ever-cleaner energy.”

The Market Brief identifies several key findings shaping the sustainable fleets landscape in 2025:

Policy and Funding: Federal priorities have shifted toward conventional fuels, with Executive Orders pausing IIJA and IRA disbursements and reconsidering EPA greenhouse gas (GHG) regulations such as the Clean Trucks Rule. However, state and local programs, offering over $13.5 billion, continue to drive NZEV and ZEV adoption, with California pausing private fleet ZEV mandates but continuing to drive adoption with funding.

Diesel Vehicles: RD adoption grew, with 39% of surveyed fleets using the fuel, supported by a 28% production increase in the first half of 2024. Biodiesel (BD) usage remained steady at 29%, while diesel fuel costs dropped 11% to $3.21 per gallon nationally. Diesel vehicle and associated fleet efficiency gains showed mixed results over the year, though leading HD adopters can still achieve 8.5+ mpg.

Natural Gas Vehicles: The debut of 15-liter natural gas engines in late 2024 saw orders from 40 fleets, while Class 8 tractor registrations surged 50% to 2,317 units. RNG supply expanded, with over 400 operational facilities and a 63% increase in stations offering RNG. CNG prices remained below diesel by an average of $0.25 per diesel-gallon-equivalent and fleets reporting continued cost savings.

Battery-Electric Vehicles: Despite a reduced forecast in orders, MD/HD BEV deliveries hit 41,472 in 2024, up significantly from 2023. Cargo vans and pickups dominated, comprising 92% of registrations. New solutions are proliferating to address the unique charging needs of fleets, such as shared charging hubs and so-called "flexible interconnect”, which allows earlier access to electricity in a project lifecycle.

Hydrogen Vehicles: Industry faces a highly uncertain future; development is likely to slow or pause. Class 8 tractor registrations reached a record high of 165 units before two manufacturers filed for bankruptcy.

Penske Transportation Solutions, Volvo Trucks North America, and Chevron serve as title sponsors of the 2025 Market Brief, with Dana, Exelon, and S&P Global Mobility as supporting sponsors. Each provides expertise and data that enhances the Market Brief's credibility across the spectrum of technologies assessed.

To access the full 2025 Market Brief and receive ongoing updates, visit www.StateofSustainableFleets.com.

About State of Sustainable Fleets

The State of Sustainable Fleets Market Brief is the foremost authority on sustainable technology adoption within America's on-road fleets. This annual analysis compiles real-world data from early adopter fleets nationwide, offering sector-specific insights into the uptake of BEVs, natural gas, propane, and hydrogen FCEVs, alongside renewable fuels, benchmarked against diesel and gasoline vehicles. The annual Market Brief provides essential data and analysis for year-round education on the rapidly developing market via regular webinars, webinar series called Academies, guides for fleets, and trend briefs.

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