Report — Stronger Tailpipe Rules Coming

by Matthew Choi (Politico's Morning Energy) EPA and the Transportation Department soon will propose a rule boosting federal tailpipe standards almost to Obama-era levels, with an eye toward more aggressive requirements later this decade to goose electric vehicle sales, the New York Times reports, citing unnamed sources. The proposal, anticipated to debut this month, is expected to require a fleetwide average of 51 miles per gallon by 2026, a year later than under the Obama-era standards that were interrupted by the Trump administration, according to the Times. The agencies are also reportedly working on another rule to last through model year 2030 or 2032. READ MORE

Excerpt from New York Times: At the same time, the administration is expected to get to work on a more ambitious auto pollution rule that would run until at least 2030, and possibly through 2032. Gina McCarthy, Mr. Biden’s top climate adviser, is weighing how to write it in a way that would win the support of both auto companies and union workers, according to people familiar with the matter.

“The existing Obama standards, as much as I love them, they are not enough,” said Margo Oge, a former E.P.A. expert on auto emissions who helped write the Obama standards and now informally advises both the Biden administration and some major auto companies.

Because tailpipe emissions rules pertain to the average mileage per gallon of all vehicles sold by a carmaker, more stringent standards are designed to force auto companies to sell more electric cars to offset the sales of conventional pickup trucks, sports utility vehicles and other models that get low mileage. The Ford F-150, for example, is the nation’s most popular vehicle and gets just 25 miles per gallon.

The risk for automakers is whether consumers will purchase electric vehicles that are generally more expensive and logistically challenging, since the nation lacks a network of electric-vehicle charging stations.

The design of any tougher future rules would quite likely depend on an infrastructure bill, according to analysts and people familiar with the administration’s plans.

If Congress approves hundreds of billions of dollars for construction of charging stations as well as tax incentives for both buyers and makers of electric cars and trucks, Mr. Biden would most likely be able to secure industry support for more stringent rules that would result in more electric vehicles on the road. Currently, only about 2 percent of vehicles sold in the United States are electric.

...

Pushback from oil and gas refiners, automakers and unions could create a political liability for a president who has proudly styled himself a “car guy” and a “union guy,” labels with great appeal to voters in the industrial areas of the Midwest and Northeast, including swing states like Michigan and Ohio.

...

Ms. Oge, the tailpipe emissions expert, said the Biden administration should write a strict rule that would require electric vehicles to account for 60 percent of automakers’ sales by 2030.

...

Mr. Biden announced in late June that he had reached a deal with a bipartisan group of senators on an infrastructure package that would include about $7 billion of spending to build electric vehicle charging stations.

But that is barely a fraction of the $174 billion that Mr. Biden wants to spend on vehicle electrification in a second infrastructure bill this fall, which Democrats hope will include robust provisions to fund 500,000 electric vehicle charging stations and generous tax rebates for purchasers of electric vehicles.

...

During the Trump administration, California struck a deal with five major automakers under which they agreed to comply with the tough California standards rather than the weakened Trump standards.

The Biden administration has now used that California deal as the model for its forthcoming July proposal. READ MORE