Palm Biodiesel in Malaysia Shows Limited Impact on Transport Emissions

(Biochar Editorial Office, Shenyang Agricultural University/EurkAlert!) An economic analysis examining three decades of data reveals that while palm biodiesel slightly reduces CO₂ emissions in the long run, its short-term use is associated with a minor increase, complicating decarbonization strategies

A Mixed Outlook for Biofuel

A new study (published October 2023) from Arak University offers a detailed examination of palm biodiesel's role in curbing transport-related carbon dioxide emissions in Malaysia. The research, conducted by Saeed Solaymani, analyzed data from 1990 to 2019 to determine the real-world effect of this biofuel. The findings show that while biodiesel offers a small long-term benefit, its immediate impact is less clear and its overall contribution to reducing emissions is minimal compared to the effects of fossil fuels.

As a major producer of palm oil, Malaysia has explored palm-based biodiesel as a way to reduce its dependency on petroleum diesel and lower its carbon footprint. The transport sector is the nation's second-largest source of CO₂ emissions. In response, the Malaysian government has been implementing a blending program to mix biodiesel with conventional diesel. This investigation sought to measure the effectiveness of this strategy and predict the outcome of future increases in biodiesel use.

The study discovered a complex relationship between biodiesel consumption and CO₂ emissions that changes over time. In the long run, a one percent increase in biodiesel use was associated with a 0.001 percent decrease in road transport carbon emissions. However, in the short run, the same increase was linked to a 0.004 percent rise in emissions. The report suggests this short-term increase may be connected to land use changes, such as deforestation, required to expand oil palm plantations for biofuel production.

Using a dynamic autoregressive distributed lag ARDL model, the study simulated the effect of increasing the biodiesel blend to 10 percent, a national target. The simulation indicated that this increase would moderate the rate of growth in road transport carbon emissions by 2030, but it would not cause a substantial overall reduction. The analysis suggests that under current conditions, simply increasing the biodiesel blend will not be enough to achieve significant long-term emission cuts.

The analysis put the minor effect of biodiesel into perspective by quantifying the much larger impact of conventional fuels. The results showed that a one percent increase in motor petrol consumption raises road transport CO₂ emissions by 0.55 percent, while a one percent increase in diesel consumption elevates emissions by 0.45 percent. These figures demonstrate that consumption of traditional fossil fuels remains the principal driver of transport emissions in Malaysia.

Based on these findings, the study concludes that Malaysia's current biodiesel strategy will not be sufficient to meaningfully reduce future CO₂ levels from the transport sector. Saeed Solaymani proposes that for biodiesel to have a greater effect, the government must support more research and development into advanced conversion technologies. Additionally, promoting other clean energy sources and implementing policies that encourage their adoption are necessary steps toward achieving sustainable development goals. Improved management of oil palm plantations is also needed to balance fuel production with food security and environmental protection. READ MORE

Excerpt from Springer Nature: Many studies have concentrated on the energy capacity of biodiesel to reduce CO2 emissions at the aggregate level and not much at the sectoral level. This study addresses this gap and attempts to estimate the impact of the use of palm biodiesel on the transport CO2 emissions in Malaysia during 1990–2019. It also predicts the impact of implementing the B10 blending program (10% biodiesel in diesel fuel) on CO2 emissions from transport in this country. For this purpose, this study uses the dynamic autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) and Kernel-based regularized least squares. This model can plot and estimate the possible actual changes in biodiesel consumption to predict its impacts on transport CO2 emissions. The results suggest that a one-way Granger causality exists from transport GDP, diesel consumption, and motor petrol consumption to palm biodiesel consumption. An increase of 1% in the use of biodiesel reduces carbon emissions from road transport by 0.004% in the long run, while, in the short run, it is associated with a 0.001% increase in transport CO2 emissions. The simulated results from the dynamic ARDL model suggest that a 10% increase in the share of biodiesel consumption in fuel transport by 2030 would reduce the rate of the increase in road transport carbon emissions. The improvement and management of new technologies in oil palm plantation and harvesting can help increase palm oil production for biofuels and edible oil and to reduce forest replacement and therefore biodiversity and food security. READ MORE