New Study: Ethanol Holding Down Gasoline Prices during Iran Conflict

September 09, 2026

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(Renewable Fuels Association) Blending ethanol into the nation’s fuel supply has helped to substantially lower gasoline prices during the ongoing Iran conflict, a new study for the Renewable Fuels Association shows. Prepared by George Hoekstra, a 35-year veteran of the petroleum refining industry, the study concludes that the average E10 cost savings advantage has been 38 cents per gallon since the Iran conflict began.

“It’s common knowledge that blending ethanol saves drivers money—consumers see evidence of that every time they pull up to the pump. But this new study carefully quantifies the economic benefits of using ethanol during a period of high crude prices and geopolitical instability,” said RFA President and CEO Geoff Cooper. “As global petroleum stocks continue to tighten, American-made ethanol is extending domestic fuel supplies by more than 1 million barrels per day and significantly lowering prices at the pump for consumers. This report should serve as a compelling reminder to policymakers that the fastest way to lower fuel prices is to blend more—not less—ethanol into our gasoline. The findings underscore the urgent need for Congress to pass legislation allowing nationwide, year-round E15 as quickly as possible.”

The Hoekstra report shows that E15’s economic benefit during the Iran conflict has been even greater, offering a lower cost of 57 cents per gallon. The study looks at three economically distinct sources of ethanol value: The value of replacing gasoline volume with lower-cost ethanol, the octane value of ethanol, and the value of Renewable Fuel Standard compliance credits called RINs. However, even when one leaves out the impact of RFS blending obligations and RINs, E10 still offered a 17.5 cents per gallon cost advantage compared to regular gasoline, showing that ethanol has substantial economic value even before counting the RIN credit value. Hoekstra also estimates that for the full year through early August, the non-RIN portion equated to overall savings of $18.7 billion. READ MORE

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Study Says Gas Prices Would be Higher Without Ethanol (Energy.AgWired.com)
Rising gas prices frustrate voters. Trump says it’s an ‘inexpensive price to pay’ for the Iran war (Associated Press; includes VIDEO)

Excerpt from Associate Press:

Interviews with voters in several states, along with a fresh round of national polling, reveal an overwhelming sense of frustration that skyrocketing gas prices — a direct result of Trump’s war — are creating serious and sustained financial hardships for America’s working class.

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But when Trump campaigned in North Carolina on Wednesday, he played down the impact of surging gas prices.

“You have a little higher. It’s a very inexpensive price to pay for what we’ve done,” Trump said of the war, which he describes as critical to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon. “Remember that. It’s a little more. Frankly, even if it was a lot more.”

‘Gas prices matter,’ Republican strategist says

Despite what Trump says, there are few things that may matter more this election year than the price of a gallon of gasoline, according to political operatives in both parties.

Gas prices are moving sharply in the wrong direction at a time of year when drivers typically get some relief. The national average for a gallon of gas reached $4.48 on Friday, according to AAA, up roughly 17 cents over the last week, 40 cents in a month and $1.27 from a year ago.

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“Gas prices matter because they’re one of the few economic indicators voters experience and see in real time,” said veteran Republican strategist Chris Wilson. “The price is literally staring them in the face several times a week. So I wouldn’t minimize the frustration we’re seeing, particularly among working- and middle-class voters.”

Interviews with voters this week found bipartisan frustration and disappointment.

Democrats and independents were especially motivated to punish Republicans at the ballot box for their economic hardship, while some of Trump’s working-class supporters pledged to support Republicans this fall, even if they weren’t happy with the president’s leadership on the economy.

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In sweltering Edinburg, Texas, 52-year-old Kristin Jimenez shrugged off the rising price of gas after filling up her Mercedes.

“We’ve paid the same price under Republican presidents, we’ve paid this price under Democrat presidents,” said Jimenez, a mother who runs a small business. She plans to vote for a Republican in because they’re the “lesser of two evils.”

She said gas prices aren’t part of her calculation.

“We don’t mind paying $8 for a cup of coffee at Starbucks, but we have a problem paying four bucks at the pump?” she said. “Make it make sense.”

More than 1,500 miles to the north in central Michigan, 35-year-old Garth Johnson is trying to make ends meet running a deep-cleaning business with several gas-powered vehicles and one machine fueled by diesel, which was $6.79 a gallon as he filled up his SUV.

Johnson voted for Trump, but doesn’t know what he’s going to do in November. Johnson doesn’t feel qualified to second-guess the president’s evaluation of the war, but he’s feeling financial pressure in his own life.

“I like a lot of the things he’s done,” Johnson said, but added “I’m a little guy and I’ve got to live my life.”

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Midterm voting was already underway on Friday in Virginia, where 60-year-old engineer Alan Johnson said Trump seems to have “no empathy” for Americans who are struggling financially.

“With the gas prices being what they are and continuing to grow, we’ve got to do something. Hopefully the Democrats can get into office and turn the ship around,” said Johnson, who cast ballots in the morning for Democrats for the U.S. Senate and U.S. House.

In Raleigh, North Carolina, teacher Brittney Bivins sees surging gas prices as evidence that Trump and his Republican Party aren’t dealing with the issues that matter most to people like her.

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At a gas station in Lansing, Michigan, Rina Risper spent $50 on 8 gallons of premium gas.

“When I rolled up I was in shock, actually, and said, well, maybe I should drink water instead of having that $4.99 bottle of whatever it was I was gonna get,” Risper said. She thinks Trump’s tariffs will make affordability even worse.

“We’re not in Miami. We’re in Lansing, Michigan,” she said. “It’s really going to impact our people.”

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Nationwide, more than three times as many voters say they are falling behind financially as getting ahead, according to a Fox News survey released Wednesday. By a 15 percentage point margin, Democrats are considered the party that would better handle inflation and prices at a time when the cost of living and the economy are voters’ top concerns.

The Fox poll found that 61% of voters say gas prices are a major problem for their household, compared with 48% two years ago, while 52% say the same for healthcare costs, compared with 44% in 2024. Majorities also view housing costs and grocery prices as major problems, although neither has increased.

Overall, nearly two-thirds of voters (63%) say the administration has made the economy worse, compared with 52% in September 2025, including one-quarter of Republicans. Only 46% of Republicans say the administration has improved the economy, while about one-quarter don’t see an impact. READ MORE; includes VIDEO