by Joanne Ivancic* (Advanced Biofuels USA) Energy use hid in the background of nearly all presentations at the DC Auto Show's 2017 Policy Day whether visions of the future or descriptions of the present or near-term.
It became clear that autonomous vehicles and electric drive trains will require substantial increases in electricity use. Dinesh Paliwal, Chairman, CEO and President of Harman International Industries, made that clear in the opening keynote address when he explained that auto industry "assembly line" jobs of the future will include lots of people in office buildings at computers.
He also extolled the explosive expansion of "cloud" data centers that would be needed to manage the massive amounts of data generated to provide a new transportation experience. These resources will be transmitting enormous amounts of information about each car's environment and travel, not to mention administering vast amounts of personal information about individual drivers from biometrics and personal preferences of seat and wheel positioning to preferred audio and video content.
Some look at this futuristic vision of mobility as "technology in search of a problem" while others take it for granted as the logical continuation of our connected society.
Regardless, the energy demand cannot be ignored, nor can the source of that energy.
Consider the source.
The natural gas industry should be sponsoring auto shows these day as that sector will be the likely beneficiary of the vision of the future depicted during the presentations throughout. Just as natural gas interests for many years have sponsored the U.S. Department of Energy's Clean Cities initiatives, they should get on board here.
No one, other than the Hyundai presenter, who touted the hoped-for benefits of contradictory concepts of autonomy and connectedness expressed any concern about the fossil fuel-based source of the "zero emission" vehicles' propulsion or power required for extraordinary computer management of vehicle features.
The Hyundai presentation included graphics showing that 67% of US electricity comes from non-renewable, CO2-producing fossil fuel with 20% from nuclear. Not what many would call "clean" energy.
Renewable Fuels? What?
Two additional examples illustrate the lack of appreciation for possible renewable sources of fuel for near-term and current vehicles. First from the U.S. Army; and second from the Jeep presentation.
The Army brought an example of the latest idea to replace Humvee-type equipment, the ZH2 Fuel Cell Electric Vehicle (FCEV) developed and built by General Motors for the Army, featuring new hydrogen fuel cell power.
And how will the Army get that hydrogen? The presenters talked about conversion of JP-8 into hydrogen, and dismissed follow-up questions about the impact that would have on the fully burdened cost of getting the world's most expensive fuel from where it is made to remote parts of the planet for use by soldiers in this high tech buggy.
It took prompting to get them to admit to the possibility of using solar and wind to make hydrogen from local water, even though this renewable hydrogen production possibility was featured in the poster display at the event. This solution to a key problem identified by military experts was barely mentioned, even as an afterthought, during conversations with presenters after the formal presentation. Probably because of its unlikely use in arid lands where JP-8 would be the feedstock of choice.
Then why not just use JP-8 in the truck? Why use that to fuel production of hydrogen? The estimated fully burdened cost to transport fuel to remote areas of engagement reaches $1000/gallon, without considering the loss of life attributed to "just moving fuel." You'd think that addressing, rather than exacerbating, this problem should be a military priority.
One questioner observed that ISIS, for example, has made great strides using Ford and other trucks available from commercial used vehicle markets. Why wouldn't the military take their experience to heart--using a simpler, easy-to-repair vehicle with readily available replacement parts that can operate on relatively available fuel, etc.? Why not use a vehicle that could operate with renewable fuel, as well? It seems to be a successful equipment strategy for some fighting in harsh environments. The Army representatives couldn't or wouldn't provide an answer.
As to Jeep®. On the commercial end of the spectrum, during Q&A after a press briefing about the new Compass by Jeep, the presenter, claiming that he was in sales, not technology, could not say if any Jeep vehicles were designed to use B20 or high ethanol blends such as E85. Audience help came from Allen R. Schaeffer, Executive Director of the Diesel Technology Forum, who found one listed on DTF's website-- the Jeep® Grand Cherokee EcoDiesel which received the 2015 Green SUV of the Year™ award from Green Car Journal. You'd think someone on Jeep's national sales force on the day of the announcement of the 2016 Green Cars of the Year would know.
Certainly, it's good to know that Jeep sells a B20 rated vehicle, but the real point is that sales people from the corporate level to individuals at each dealership should know that they sell vehicles that can use renewable blends. And, they should know enough about those renewable fuels to provide accurate information to customers.
Demise of Government Public/Private Efforts for the Environment
Eco-friendly innovations used to be highlighted and promoted at the DC Auto Show. There was a "technology highway" which seven or eight years ago included massive displays by the US Environmental Protection Agency, Department of Energy and Department of Agriculture featuring efforts to encourage, promote and fund sustainable, renewable transportation alternatives.
This year, without any governmental agencies in evidence, electric vehicles and autonomy were touted as the environmentally conscientious automotive developments. Paliwal of Harman imagined "public private partnerships" would be required to bring about this vision of the future although no representatives of any of those agencies appeared at the DC Auto Show to assure such strong collaborations.
The bottom line
Unless the source of the electricity is renewable, the vision of the future of mobility presented at the DC Auto Show Policy Day will only increase the demand for fossil fuel power. And, if the day of presentations was any indication, serious understanding or concern about truly renewable, sustainable transportation is sorely lacking.
Eyes of enthusiasts of current and future mobility must be opened to enable them to see sustainable, renewable liquid fuels as a solution to environmental problems, as a way to avoid expanding markets for fossil fuels, as a way to avoid environmental and human rights hazards of battery production and attendant cobalt and lithium mining essential to battery production.
It seems that what we can have now, with about 10% of ground transportation already using renewable fuel, with flex fuel vehicles able to use up to 85% renewable fuel, with all diesel potentially converting to 100% renewable diesel or at least 5% biodiesel, going with the status quo provides the "greenest" most human rights supportive path to replacing fossil fuel with renewables for mobility. And when our electricity production becomes renewable, the connected, autonomous environment could be sustainable, too.
Let's see government agencies and private interests who can form the needed public/private partnerships at Policy Day at the DC Auto Show talking about what they are doing to bring about a truly renewable sustainable energy future for all aspects of future mobility.
*Joanne Ivancic serves as executive director of Advanced Biofuels USA.
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