California to Consider Updating ILUC for Biofuels

by Cindy Zimmerman (DomesticFuel.com) The California Air Resources Board (ARB) is holding two public workshops regarding the Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) this week – one to discuss general updates to the LCFS regulation, and the second to discuss updates to the indirect land use change (iLUC) values. Stakeholder feedback is being solicited for both workshops.
The board will discuss a proposal to update iLUC values for corn ethanol, sugarcane ethanol, and soy biodiesel, as well as proposed iLUC values for canola biodiesel, sorghum ethanol, and palm biodiesel.
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The question is whether the reduction for corn ethanol will be significant enough to be what the industry believes is closer to reality. Some scientists consulted by CARB believe that they are still not using the most updated modeling methods to determine iLUC and that analyses conducted since the LCFS was adopted in 2009 show emissions for corn ethanol are less than half what was estimated at the time.
The adjustments will be presented by staff at the iLUC workshop, scheduled for Tuesday, March 11, from 1:00 – 5:00 pm. READ MORE and MORE (National Biodiesel Board) and MORE (Renewable Fuels Association) and MORE (DomesticFuel.com) and MORE (Ethanol Producer Magazine) and MORE (California Air Resources Board) and MORE (DomesticFuel.com)
http://www.arb.ca.gov/fuels/lcfs/lcfs_meetings/030714lcfsconceptpaper.pdf
http://www.arb.ca.gov/fuels/lcfs/lcfs_meetings/lcfs_presentation_031014.pdf
http://www.arb.ca.gov/fuels/lcfs/lcfs_meetings/lcfs_presentation_handouts_031014.pdf
http://www.arb.ca.gov/fuels/lcfs/lcfs_meetings/iluc_presentation_031014.pdf
http://www.arb.ca.gov/fuels/lcfs/lcfs_meetings/iluc_presentation_handouts_031014.pdf
Excerpt from Renewable Fuels Association: “CARB appears to be taking a small step in the right direction, but the science shows a much larger reduction to the iLUC penalty for corn ethanol is warranted. Just last week a group of 14 well-known scientists—including five members of CARB’s own expert work group—recommended CARB should lower the penalty by 50-80 percent, but CARB appears to be proposing just a 20 percent cut. The larger issue here is that in the five years since the LCFS was adopted, there have been no indications that the policy has caused—or will cause—any kind of land use change. Amazon deforestation has fallen to its lowest rate on record, U.S. cropland area continues to shrink, and U.S. forested area continues to increase. All of this suggests the iLUC hypothesis needs to be critically re-evaluated. If finalized, CARB’s apparent decision to ignore sound science and stick to an unjustified and exaggerated iLUC penalty for grain-derived ethanol will negatively impact California consumers. Under CARB’s apparent proposal, grain ethanol—the lowest-cost renewable fuel used in the California market today—will ultimately be replaced with higher-priced imported fuel.” READ MORE

Excerpt from DomesticFuel.com: Among those challenging the CARB results several times was Steffen Mueller with the University of Illinois-Chicago and Genscape, a member of the original CARB EWG. “There’s a lot of basic information missing (here) to engage in a productive discussion,” Mueller said, noting that the Agro-Ecological Zone – Emissions Factor (AEZ-EF) model presented was from 2011 and wondering when they would be able to see the updates CARB made to the model. “There’s been a lot of republications since 2011,” he said, to which CARB staff responded it would be updated “probably within the next week or two.”
Much of CARB’s data was presented based on Purdue University’s GTAP (Global Trade Analysis Project) work, including some research done by agricultural economist Wally Tyner, who called in to set the record straight. “What’s been presented today is really CARB’s work and not Purdue’s work,” said Tyner, who mainly called to dispute the Yield Price Elasticity assumptions made in the CARB presentations, which he says is “basically incorrect.” READ MORE (includes audio)