A Pathway to Support the Expected Demand for Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF)

July 29, 2026

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by William Strauss and Laurenz Schmidt (FutureMetrics/Canadian Biomass) For companies developing gasification plus Fischer-Tropsch systems using torrefied pellets, the long-term outlook is favourable

FutureMetrics has released a white paper discussing the growing demand for sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) and introducing a new dashboard for converting biomass into SAF. The paper highlights the expected increase in SAF demand from 2-3 million metric tonnes annually to 40 million by 2035, driven by government policies and airline commitments to net-zero emissions. Currently, SAF production is less than 1% of global aviation fuel demand, with most supply sourced from used oils and fats, which are insufficient for future needs. FutureMetrics emphasizes the importance of utilizing high-carbon biomass, particularly through the Fischer-Tropsch process, to meet SAF requirements effectively.

SAF demand projected to reach 40 million tonnes by 2035.
Current SAF supply is less than 1% of global aviation fuel demand.
High-carbon biomass is essential for sustainable SAF production.

This story matters as it underscores the urgent need for innovative solutions in the aviation sector to achieve sustainability goals and reduce carbon emissions.

FutureMetrics is not expert in the SAF markets. We depend on third-party research to gain our understanding of current and future demand.

However, FutureMetrics is an expert at the supply of upgraded biomass-derived feedstocks, which will be used in the most promising pathway for production of SAF to meet future demand: the Fischer-Tropsch conversion of biogenic carbon into hydrocarbons.

This white paper will begin with a discussion of the SAF markets and then will introduce a new FutureMetrics dashboard. The dashboard is based on a comprehensive model for converting high-carbon content woody biomass (torrefied/carbonized) into SAF.

FutureMetrics’ has a deep understanding of the wood pellet sector (production and use) and a deep understanding of the thermal treatment processes used for upgrading biomass into the high-carbon content feedstock that is the optimal input for a SAF refinery.

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Converting woody biomass to SAF

The pathway from biomass carbohydrates to SAF is based on the carbon (C) contained in biomass. A process named Fischer-Tropsch (FT), invented in 1925 by Franz Fischer and Hans Tropsch, links hydrocarbon radical (CH2) into chains to produce compounds that are essentially identical to classic, crude oil-derived aviation fuel. Co-products from the FT process include renewable diesel fuel and lighter fractions such as LPG. (For a representative mass and energy flow diagram, see Figure 3 at the end of this paper. The diagram is AI generated.)

The FT process is not new(5). There is essentially zero technology risk with FT. The equipment specifications and process flow for the conversion from carbon containing feedstock to SAF is well-established.

But the conversion rates and operating costs can vary. A primary determinant is the carbon content of the feedstock.

The first step in the FT process is gasification. The goal is to produce carbon monoxide (CO) and hydrogen (H2) that are later reacted to the CH2 radicals which are the building blocks of the hydrocarbon end products. Feedstocks with higher carbon content and lower moisture content gasify more efficiently and use less oxygen input. As the gasification typically happens near the synthesis reactors, transporting feedstock with lower moisture and volatiles content to that location is less costly.

The SAF refinery needs consistent feedstock, and prefers feedstock that has high C, low moisture, and low levels of minerals (ash). Delivering the highest carbon content and least unwanted non-carbon components, within technical and economic constraints, will improve the SAF output per tonne of input, and it will lower operating costs.

Doing that with biomass requires specific expertise and experience. SAF refinery operators are not likely to have that expertise.

The experts at converting highly diversified woody biomass inputs (variations in moisture content, species, mineral/ash content, size, etc.) into a homogeneous output are the wood pellet manufacturing plants that made the ~55 million tonnes produced in 2025(6).

Most of those wood pellets are so-called “white” pellets. They are dried and densified wood. But white wood pellets have a relatively low-carbon content (typically 47-52%) and contain a number of undesirable compounds. Adding an upgrading step to the wood pellet manufacturing process will produce a feedstock that a SAF refinery will be very happy with.

The additional step over the existing production of “white” wood pellets increases the net carbon content of the output pellets and removes many of the unwanted molecules. It is a thermal treatment process under oxygen-starved conditions at about 280C to 310C, somewhere between roasting coffee beans and converting coal to coke(7). The thermal treatment, under starved oxygen conditions, drives off unwanted moisture and compounds and yields a drier product with a higher carbon content.

Torrefaction (or if driven to an even higher C content, carbonization) yields a “black,” higher carbon content pellet that improves the SAF yield for the same number of input tonnes. It also lowers many other operating challenges and costs compared with input feedstocks that have not been upgraded with torrefaction. Under most scenarios, the net will be a lower cost for the refinery to produce a gallon of SAF.

FutureMetrics has developed a comprehensive model describing the conversion of torrefied pellets into SAF(8). Figure 1 is derived from that model and it shows that higher torrefaction severity (higher carbon content) yields very positive outcomes for the SAF refinery. For the same mass of feedstock, higher C results in higher production rates and lower production cost per gallon.

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Conclusion

The expected growth in demand for SAF far outstrips the current production. Growth in output will require building out supply chains for SAF refinery feedstocks. The current major source of input to make SAF – used oils and high-lipid wastes – the collection and processing are expensive and insufficient to support the needed growth.

The only currently practical pathway to satisfying future demand is via the use of sustainably sourced biomass (carbohydrates) and hydrogen from renewable sources, from which “green” hydrocarbons can be derived.

And, as this paper has described, leveraging the already mature white pellet sector, and adding thermal treatment equipment to the pellet plants to produce TAP pellets, is a ready-to-deploy and optimal solution for supplying consistent high-carbon feedstock to SAF refineries.

This paper and the dashboard provide an overview of path from wood pellets to FT SAF.

What stands out in the cost build-up analysis is that the cost of the feedstock, and indirectly the cost of the carbon needed to make SAF, is the input that dominates the costs of producing SAF.

Even a modest and persistent mismatch between how the feedstock characteristics for a SAF refinery project are modelled and the actual cost and quality of the torrefied/carbonized pellets can permanently turn profits into losses.

Independent validation of the TAP supply is essential to the risk management of a SAF project that will use thermally upgraded woody biomass as feedstock.

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References

1 For example, a 3,000-mile flight would require about 30 tonnes of regular aviation fuel or SAF. Batteries with the same energy would weigh about1,500 tonnes. That is about five times the maximum takeoff weight of a Boeing 787 and leaves no room for passengers or cargo.

2 S&P Global, IATA.

3 See HERE for a discussion of SAF production using the HEFA process.

4 For a discussion of how the forest products industry can provide a perpetual supply of sustainably sourced biomass, see this webinar by Dr. Strauss sponsored by the Advanced Woody Biomass Alliance on YouTube HERE.

5 The process was developed on 1926 in Germany and was used to synthesize hydrocarbon fuel from a domestically available source, coal. See HERE.

6 For data to 2024, see FAO data HERE. 2025 data is based on FutureMetrics research.

7 For more on coking see HERE.

8 The model is based on review and analysis by FutureMetrics of many versions of the FT mass and energy flows. While similar, they are not all in agreement. The model used herein is a synthesis and may not perfectly correlate with other models. The model’s mass and energy flows start with the carbon content of the feedstock. The model is the foundation of the dashboard described later in this paper.

9 Based on FutureMetrics analysis, the best solution in most scenarios is to take already produced white pellets and subject them to thermal treatment. This is referred to as torrefaction after pelletization (TAP). TAP is an easy and relatively low cost add-on to an existing white pellet factory. READ MORE

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