USMCA: Bilateral or Trilateral Trade -- Agriculture Seeks Certainty as US Pursues Separate Talks With Canada and Mexico

July 04, 2026

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by Jake Zajkowski (DTN Progressive Farmer) U.S. officials from the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative are expected to meet virtually with their counterparts from Mexico and Canada this week to launch the agreement's review process.

"The Trump administration is expected to announce Wednesday that it will not extend the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA)," Reuters reported Tuesday. The move would start a 10-year clock in the direction of expiration of the 32-year-old North American free trade pact.

Signed into law in 2020, USMCA created one of the world's largest free-trade blocs, supporting integrated North American supply chains for produce, meat and grain.

Mexico is the largest buyer of U.S. corn and the No. 1 destination for U.S. pork exports, while Canada is the top export market for U.S. ethanol and the No. 4 market for U.S. pork. Canada and Mexico make up nearly one-third of agriculture exports, valued at $60 billion, according to the Agriculture Coalition for USMCA.

"There are so many pieces of agriculture that are inherently uncertain, whether it's weather, yields," said Samantha Ayoub, director for workforce and business policy at the International Fresh Produce Association. Trade, she said, "is really the one space that provides certainty."

Farm organizations across North America are urging an early renewal. The Agriculture Coalition for USMCA submitted a letter to President Donald Trump signed by 2,376 farmers after nearly 350 organizations from the three countries issued a similar appeal, arguing an early commitment would provide market certainty.

Canadian Federation of Agriculture President Keith Currie told DTN during his Washington visit last week, "It's been in place for over 30 years, and it's working very, very well for all three countries. Any disruption of that will affect everybody on all parts, all three borders, and we certainly don't want to see that happen."

Mexico has taken a more collaborative approach with the Trump administration ahead of this deadline, while relations with Canada have remained more strained.

Michael Harvey, executive director of the Canada Agri-Food Trade Alliance, said there is little indication the review will resemble the 2018 renegotiation. He represents 90% of farmers, ranchers, producers, processors and exporters who depend on trade in Canada.

"We're not facing a situation right now where we're talking about the treaty ending. What's going on right now is if the three countries don't decide to extend the treaty, then the treaty would expire in 10 years," he told DTN.

BILATERAL NOT TRILATERAL

Early signals suggest the administration is more interested in resolving trade disputes through bilateral agreements and executive trade actions than reopening the USMCA itself.

Harvey said separate U.S. negotiations with Canada and Mexico over trade irritants make another comprehensive renegotiation unlikely.

"There isn't one of those big negotiation tables like there was the last time the treaty was renegotiated, but I don't think one of those tables will take place, because I don't think the treaty is going to get negotiated, renegotiated," he said.

Trade irritants for Trump include reshoring auto manufacturing back to the U.S. For agriculture: Canada's dairy quotes, Southeast American produce antidumping requests and current Mexico disputes with U.S. apples.

Harvey said recent comments from U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer reinforce his approach.

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Politico reported earlier this week that many senators and members of Congress would be OK with not approving the trade deal via congressional authorization, if it meant getting one extended quickly.

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President Donald Trump and his advisers have also emphasized negotiating directly with trading partners, instead of renewing USMCA.

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EXECUTIVE TRADE TOOLS

Even if USMCA remains largely intact, the administration has demonstrated an increasing willingness to rely on executive trade authorities, unraveling the principles of free trade.

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Those authorities include Section 232 tariffs, which allow the president to impose import duties on products deemed a threat to U.S. national security; Section 301 investigations, which examine unfair foreign trade practices and can lead to retaliatory tariffs, such as current investigations involving Brazil; and antidumping and countervailing-duty cases, which address imports sold below fair value or benefiting from foreign government subsidies.

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"The bigger the structural change to the program, the more potential there is for Congress to push back on needing to revote on it," the analyst said. "This isn't a process that has instructions or guardrails on it."

Also see, "Trump Raises Doubts About USMCA, But Ag Groups Say Trade Deal Is Vital," https://www.dtnpf.com/agriculture/web/ag/columns/washington-insider/article/2026/06/10/trump-raises-doubts-usmca-ag-groups

Watch the USMCA event at the Center for Strategic and International Studies featuring Darci Vetter: .https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZswH-VKwl0M&list=PLnArnDQHeUqciqb-BJbeVdCHLvUpa05iO&index=5

Read the letter "Thousands of U.S. Farmers Call for USMCA Renewal," at https://agforusmca.com/resources/profile/farmers-call-for-usmca-renewal

Sylvain Charlesbois blog on "North America's Food Economy Needs Certainty," at https://agrifoodanalyticslab.substack.com/p/north-americas-food-economy-needs

Related articles

USMCA review period opens with Trump questioning pact’s future (Agri-Pulse)
Trump seeks to rewrite USMCA terms by 2036 (Argus Media)
Agricultural Coalition Encourages USMCA Renewal (Agricultural Coalition for USMCA)
Trump administration declines USMCA renewal; dairy industry weighs in (Agri-Pulse)
USMCA’s clouded ag future (Politico)
At risk: $60 billion in U.S. ag exports (Farm Futures/Farm Progress)
Trump imposes 50% tariffs on Canadian goods, citing disputes over autos, alcohol and cheese (Associated Press)
US Trade Representative eyes interim trade deals with Canada, Mexico by year-end (S&P Global)
Beyond Trade: Lighthizer Says Immigration, Cartels Could Complicate Mexico Talks (AgWeb)

Excerpt from Agricultural Coalition for USMCA: Ambassador Jamieson Greer, with the Office of United States Trade Representative, announced today that the United States did not agree to renew the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement in its current form after a joint meeting between the countries.The agreement will remain in force as negotiations continue.

In response to the development, Bryan Goodman, a spokesman for the Agricultural Coalition for USMCA released the following statement:

“USMCA is without a doubt critical to the livelihood of farmers, fishers and rural communities across the country who rely on exports to Mexico and Canada, and to obtain key inputs used in U.S. farming operations.

“In addition to revenue generation for farmers, USMCA also provides certainty, allowing the agricultural industry and farmers to make long-term strategic and planting decisions.

"We are encouraged by the negotiations already underway and urge all three countries to continue making progress towards a renewed and strengthened agreement."

July 1 marked the date of the first USMCA Review for all three countries to indicate the path forward on USMCA. Given that no agreement was reached today, officials from all three countries will be required to discuss the agreement each year until reaching agreement to renew it or until it otherwise automatically expires in 2036.

About the Agricultural Coalition for USMCA

The Agricultural Coalition for USMCA is a broad-based coalition of U.S. agricultural organizations and food and agribusiness companies committed to preserving and strengthening the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement to support American farmers, food manufacturers, workers and consumers. READ MORE

Excerpt from Associated Press: President Donald Trump on Monday imposed 50% tariffs on most Canadian goods, declaring that Canada has unfairly discriminated against American autos, alcohol and dairy products.

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The new 50% tariffs would exclude energy products, potash, fish and critical minerals, but they would include goods that had previously been protected from import taxes by the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, or USMCA. That 2020 trade pact was not renewed by the U.S., triggering a new set of negotiations that could run until 2036.

The White House said in a fact sheet that the tariffs would go into effect in 30 days, meaning there is time for negotiations as Trump has not always followed through on his announced tax hikes on imports. READ MORE