Trump’s Trade War Looms over Divided U.S. Farm Belt ahead of Vote

by Humeyra Pamuk and P.J. Huffstutter (Reuters) ... Some of the nation’s 3.2 million farmers and ranchers, traditionally staunch Republicans, are wavering in this election because of the trade dispute with China, the main buyer of U.S. soybeans and pork, interviews with nearly two dozen farmers showed.

Those interviews and a survey of 2,454 farmers by trade publication Farm Journal also point to a surprising generational split in agricultural areas. While younger producers largely believe in Trump’s pledge to cut a better trade deal with China and his administration’s patriotic appeal for short-term sacrifice, older farmers recall past economic crises and the years of work involved in opening the Chinese market.

Veteran farmers worry they will not be able to recover from a prolonged dispute with the world’s other economic superpower and are concerned the downturn will take too big a bite out of their retirement savings.

In Kansas, the nation’s top wheat producing state, the Kansas Farm Board took the unusual step of declining to endorse a candidate for governor after Republicans nominated staunch Trump ally Kris Kobach.

The Trump administration has tried to sweeten its relationship with farmers in recent months with a $6 billion farm aid package meant to compensate them for markets that were lost due to the trade wars.

Farmers started receiving checks in September, and the U.S. Agriculture Department has promised more aid for the end of the year.

Last month, Trump, who has embraced an “America First” policy aimed at boosting jobs and reducing U.S. trade deficits, promised to expand domestic sales of corn-based ethanol, a key market for Iowa farmers.

Fears that other markets could be lost also eased after the trilateral trade deal signed by the United States, Canada and Mexico on Oct. 1. U.S. corn and dairy farmers, in particular, had fretted about the prospect of a North American trade war.

Nevertheless, a study by economists at Perdue University in Illinois this week showed the retaliatory tariffs imposed by Canada and Mexico during the trade negotiations would cause U.S. agricultural exports to decline by at least $1.8 billion annually, outweighing market access improvements it said were worth $450 million. READ MORE

Excerpts from Bloomberg: Domestically, farm programs began to expire Sept. 30 and Congress hasn’t passed a new bill.

A change in either or both chambers, or a slimmer majority, may mean more scrutiny toward Trump’s handling of agricultural matters like the farm bill and the trade war, Jonathan Coppess, director of the Gardner Agriculture Policy Program at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, said by telephone. READ MORE

Excerpts from Bloomberg (American Farmers): About 79 percent approve or strongly approve of the president, according to a survey of 600 commercial farmers and ranchers commissioned by Agri-Pulse, an industry publication, and carried out Oct. 12-28.

"There’s this belief that by taking on China, by reworking trade deals, that this president has their interest in the long-term at heart," said Arun Pillai-Essex, a senior North America analyst for global risk consultancy Verisk Maplecroft. "There’s a belief and trust that those sort of arrangements, even though they are causing short-term pain, they will lead to long-term structural benefits."

Farmers want the administration to focus more on exports and ending the dispute with China, according to the Agri-Pulse survey, conducted by Aimpoint Research. Just over 69 percent said they’re willing to re-elect Trump and almost 65 percent believe Republicans relate best to them and their farm, according to the survey, which pooled those with gross farm income of at least $50,000. READ MORE