The Political Contest over the Energy Transition: Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro in Brazil’s 2026 Elections

October 21, 2026

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by Jefferson dos Santos Estevo* (Advanced Biofuels USA) Next Sunday, October 25, Brazil will elect its president for the next term. The candidates are the incumbent president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, of the Workers’ Party (PT), who is seeking re-election, and Liberal Party (PL) candidate Flávio Bolsonaro, son of former president Jair Bolsonaro. Their government platforms differ on a range of issues. This analysis focuses on the main proposals related to the energy transition.

Flávio Bolsonaro

In Flávio Bolsonaro’s government platform, energy is addressed on pages 52–53 under the heading “Abundant and affordable energy means lower electricity bills and an industry with its doors open,” which appears to encapsulate the candidate’s approach. The opening paragraph emphasizes gas, including the “development of unconventional gas through fracking,” and states, “we will turn our oil and gas wealth into energy and jobs” (...) “by breaking the monopoly, opening the sector to competition, and creating the conditions for lower gas prices.” The platform then addresses oil: “we will encourage the modernization of refining to make better use of domestic oil.” However, it provides few details about the measures envisaged beyond improving distribution. This suggests that the candidate intends to expand fossil-fuel extraction, particularly natural gas, with specific emphasis on “fracking”—a practice whose legal status in Brazil remains under judicial consideration and which raises environmental and public-health concerns.

Further on, the candidate promises to reduce electricity bills, highlighting the “gradual reduction of the Energy Development Account (CDE) and of incentives for subsidized energy sources, while maintaining the social electricity tariff.” The platform does not clarify how this would be implemented; it states only that the social tariff would be maintained. Nevertheless, reducing the CDE could affect incentives for renewable energy, including solar and wind power. In the same paragraph, again emphasizing price, the platform stresses the importance of “attracting data centers and artificial intelligence, which locate where energy is cheap and reliable,” and of “turning the country into a global hub for sustainable data centers.” It is difficult to determine what “sustainable” means in this complex context, particularly because the renewable share of Brazil’s energy mix is not the only relevant variable.

Finally, and most importantly for this section, low-emission fuels appear in a single paragraph. The platform states: “we will turn Brazil into a biofuel powerhouse: ethanol, biodiesel, HVO, SAF, and biogas, promoting the implementation of the Future Fuels Law and offering special financing lines for biogas companies that turn waste into energy.” This amounts to continuing policies already under way, once again without specifying what will be done or how it will be carried out.

One passage that summarizes the candidate’s approach deserves particular attention: “Our clean energy and sustainability are competitive advantages underpinning this vision: our goal for 2030 is to position Brazil among the world’s leading destinations for investment in the energy transition, with biofuels, solar power, wind power, and green hydrogen as key drivers, and diplomacy as a permanent instrument.” In other words, energy transition is an important issue in his campaign.

The platform then proposes, in similarly vague terms, to “strengthen and expand the Renovabio Program internationally, allowing Brazil to sell carbon credits to the world.” What this would mean in practice is unclear. It is not evident whether the intention is to improve renewable-fuel certification by using Renovabio as the basis for calculating emissions, or to pursue some other approach.

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

In his re-election platform, Lula devotes approximately five pages (63–69) to energy. Its central heading is “Strengthening Energy Security and Leading the Transition to a Low-Carbon Economy.” The energy transition is therefore prominent from the outset. The platform goes on to emphasize “greater coordination of electricity, oil, gas, biofuel, and green hydrogen policies around a coherent, long-term national strategy for a just energy transition.” It highlights the National Energy Transition Policy (PNTE), launched under the current administration, which aims at the “transformation of the energy mix toward a structure that combines a stable supply, emissions reductions, and economic and socio-environmental development.”

The text then reviews the current government’s achievements, highlighting investment across the energy sector, from biofuels to oil. As in Flávio Bolsonaro’s platform, natural gas is considered important: “the role of natural gas and biomethane as complements to renewable energy sources will continue to be encouraged, strengthening energy security.” It also states that “natural gas infrastructure will continue to expand and become more integrated in order to increase supply, extend transmission and distribution networks inland, and strengthen South American gas integration.” The platform does not mention fracking, but it does support continued fossil-fuel development through new oil exploration: “Petrobras will continue to expand onshore and offshore exploration investments to regain a greater share of control over national reserves.”

A subsequent passage is particularly noteworthy: “We also believe that Petrobras should continue to help drive the energy transition, in alignment with the Paris Agreement and Brazil’s Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC), through investment in low-carbon sources and effective reductions in operational emissions.” Thus, despite continued support for fossil fuels, the platform also expresses a commitment to decarbonization. This is one of the differences between the two government platforms, as discussed below.

In the electricity sector, the platform states that the “fight against energy poverty has been pursued through Luz do Povo, which revised the social electricity tariff and expanded free electricity for families registered in the Single Registry (Cadastro Único) with monthly consumption of up to 80 kWh, reaching more than 60 million people.” The proposal also prioritizes modernization of the electricity system through transmission expansion, hydropower repowering, batteries, and a gradual reduction in coal use, with the aim of integrating renewable sources and lowering tariffs. Finally, it stresses the need to “incorporate climate risks as a mandatory variable in planning” to strengthen the system’s resilience.

In the area of low-emission fuels, the platform highlights progress, particularly through the Future Fuels Law, which received full government support during its passage and was signed into law by President Lula in 2024. The platform commits to continuing and expanding the initiatives associated with the law: “we will continue efforts to develop technologies and expand sustainable fuels (SAF, biomethane, and marine fuels), accelerating the implementation of decarbonization policies.” SAF is mentioned explicitly, reflecting the need for further progress as targets are set to begin in 2027. The platform states: “The New Growth Acceleration Program (Novo PAC) portfolio also demonstrates this progress by including eight second-generation ethanol plants and Brazil’s first two biorefineries dedicated to SAF production.” It also mentions “biomethane, co-processed diesel, carbon capture and storage, hydrogen studies, and other energy-transition technologies.”

Lula’s platform also addresses hydrogen and points to legislative progress: “The Legal Framework for Low-Carbon Hydrogen established the national policy, Rehidro, and PHBC, with guidelines for technological neutrality, legal certainty, financing, and innovation to enable hydrogen to compete in Brazil’s energy mix.” This is a relevant component of the energy transition.

The platform also points to progress in decarbonizing road transport through the following measure: “the mandatory biofuel-blending requirements were increased from 27% to 32% ethanol in gasoline (E32) and from 10% to 15% biodiesel in diesel (B15), strengthening demand for biofuels and making Brazil a reference point for transport decarbonization.”

The most significant difference between the two campaigns concerns the priority given to climate issues and the extent to which the energy transition is framed as a long-term project. This is clear in the closing section of Lula’s platform: “Strengthening the energy system’s resilience to climate change is a strategic priority, requiring climate risks to be incorporated as a mandatory variable in planning.”

Analysis

The energy transition is essential to mitigating climate change. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA, 2025), “the deployment of solar photovoltaics, wind power, nuclear energy, electric cars, and heat pumps since 2019 now avoids 2.6 billion tonnes of CO₂ emissions annually, equivalent to 7% of global emissions.” In this context, Flávio Bolsonaro’s platform states that it views “the environment as a strategic asset, not an obstacle to development.” Although it sets “the goal of eliminating illegal deforestation by 2029,” the platform repeatedly frames environmental preservation in terms of capital and profit. Most notably, it makes no reference to global warming or climate change. This omission is consistent with the candidate’s climate-skeptical position, as reflected in an interview this year in which the senator said he believes extreme weather events are cyclical phenomena, disregarding decades of scientific evidence.

For those who followed his father’s administration, this approach may come as little surprise. Jair Bolsonaro’s government adopted positions similar to those of Donald Trump’s administration in the United States, including climate skepticism and support for Brazil’s withdrawal from the Paris Agreement, as the United States had done.

By contrast, the Lula government has sought to restore climate policy to the center of the national agenda. As its platform states, “In the field of climate change, Brazil has resumed ambitious planning supported by a strong institutional foundation.” It adds: “The ecological transformation is a historic opportunity for Brazil in the twenty-first century. It is not a cost to be paid, but a pathway to the country’s development.”

In conclusion, although both platforms propose maintaining and expanding activities related to the energy transition, they differ significantly in their priorities and underlying rationale. Lula’s campaign gives greater prominence to the urgency of climate change, emissions mitigation, and the links between energy policy, industrial development, and national and international climate commitments. This approach is reflected in its support for decarbonization policies, low-emission fuels, and the integration of climate risks into energy planning. Flávio Bolsonaro’s platform, by contrast, emphasizes affordable energy, the exploitation of natural resources, and economic competitiveness, while offering few energy-policy guidelines explicitly connected to climate change. This orientation is consistent with the climate skepticism expressed by the candidate and with positions associated with Bolsonarismo and Donald Trump’s political camp.

The difference, therefore, does not lie in the absolute presence or absence of energy-transition initiatives, since both candidates refer to renewable energy sources and biofuels. Rather, it concerns the role climate change plays in their respective development projects. This distinction shows that the energy transition is not merely a technological or economic challenge, but also a political choice shaped by development priorities, climate responsibility, and the role Brazil intends to play in international environmental governance.

* Jefferson dos Santos Estevo is a researcher in International Relations and Energy Transition at the Center of Excellence in Hydrogen and Sustainable Energy Technologies (CEHTES) at the Federal University of Goiás. FAPEG Research Fellow. He holds a doctorate in Social Sciences from the University of Campinas.