Japan Trade Deal Reduces Tariffs, Boosting US Agricultural, Protein, and Biofuel Exports

by Samyak Pandey (S&P Global) Japan reduces 25% tariff on US imports to 15%, opening markets; The deal boosts US agricultural exports to Japan, a vital trading partner; Improved market access may drive 5%-10% gains in US agricultural and protein exp

The announcement via Truth Social marks a sharp reversal from Washington's earlier stance, which included a 25% blanket tariff on Japanese goods starting Aug. 1. This plan now appears shelved in favor of a negotiated approach that could reshape US commodity export flows, particularly for rice, ethanol, beef, pork, and related feedstock markets.

According to USDA and US Renewable Fuels Association data, Japan imported about 200 million gallons (761 million liters) of US corn ethanol worth an estimated $200–$300 million, primarily via ETBE blends, in 2023.

The new market-opening provisions could boost exports by 10%–15%, reaching $220–$345 million (220–230 million gallons) in 2025. However, there is a risk that Japan could shift sourcing to Brazil following tariff changes earlier this year.

Brazil remains a strong competitor, especially with Japan aiming for 10% ethanol blending by 2030 (up from about 1.8% now). Brazil's tariff hikes on US ethanol earlier this year could tilt the balance back toward Brazilian supply.

While the deal resets the immediate bilateral dynamic, questions remain over implementation timelines and whether sector-specific duties — such as on ethanol or premium meat — will be included in the 15% umbrella or negotiated separately.

If the investment tranche includes logistics or bio-refining infrastructure, it could further accelerate US–Japan integration across clean fuels and agri-supply systems. However, without that clarity, stakeholders are watching cautiously.

"There's potential here for a durable alignment," said a Singapore-based commodities trade lawyer. "But we need to see the fine print." READ MORE

Excerpt from Ethanol Producer Magazine: The trade deal with Indonesia includes provisions eliminating tariff barriers, on a preferential basis, on over 99% of U.S. products exported to Indonesia across all sectors, including for all agricultural products, health products, seafood, information and communications technology, automotive products, and chemicals.

The Japanese trade deal includes a provision specifically targeting ethanol and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF). According to the White House, Japan will purchase $8 billion in U.S. goods, including corn, soybeans, fertilizer, bioethanol, and SAF.

The U.S. does currently export ethanol and distillers grains to Japan and Indonesia. According to USDA data, the U.S. exported approximately 1.82 million gallons of ethanol to Japan and 7,930 gallons of ethanol to Indonesia last year. Those volumes account for less than 1% of the 1.94 billion gallons of ethanol exported from the U.S. last year.

Exports of distillers grains to both countries were more substantial. According to the USDA, the U.S. exported 431,474 metric tons of distillers grains to Japan last year, accounting for 4% of U.S. distillers grains exports. Distillers grains exports to Indonesia reached 988,799 metric tons, accounting for 8% of total U.S. distillers grains exports in 2024.

The Renewable Fuels Association has spoken out in support of both trade agreements. “We’re grateful to President Trump and his team for ensuring U.S. agriculture and renewable fuels are prominently included in these framework agreements,” said Geoff Cooper, president and CEO of the RFA. “These deals will ultimately help open important Asian markets and allow greater access for American farm products, renewable fuels, and co-products like distillers grains. This administration clearly understands the leading role American farmers and renewable fuel producers can play when it comes to feeding and fueling the world, and we salute President Trump’s efforts to secure fair and reciprocal agreements around the globe. Breaking down barriers to fair trade strengthens our rural economy and the United States as a whole.”

Growth Energy applauded the agreements. “Ethanol exports set a record in 2024, and President Trump’s latest deals will help to ensure that American farmers and biofuel producers continue to benefit from new and growing markets in Asia,” said Emily Skor, CEO of Growth Energy. “We commend President Trump for following through on his commitment to unleash American energy dominance and tear down unfair barriers to exports from rural America. We also thank the teams at the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative and the U.S. Department of Agriculture for their tireless work to deliver these trade deals and removing trade barriers for U.S. ethanol.”

The U.S. Grains Council is also commending the agreements. “The U.S. Grains Council commends the Trump Administration on its historic trade deal with Indonesia, that will enhance trade for both countries and places a zero tariff on the products the Council represents,” said Ryan LeGrand, president and CEO of the USGC. “In the 2023-24 marketing year, Indonesia was the fourth largest importer for U.S. distillers dried grains with solubles at 1,024,000 metric tons. That translates into a nearly $299 million market, and we hope the deal announced today will not only help see those numbers increase but open doors wider to the full range of products we have to offer.”

“The U.S. Grains Council applauds the Trump Administration on this agreement with our second largest trading partner – Japan,” LeGrand added. In the 2023-24 marketing year, Japan was the second largest importer of U.S. corn; the third largest importer of U.S. sorghum; the fourth largest importer of U.S. barley; and the 9th largest importer of U.S. distillers dried grains with solubles, totaling 14 million metric tons in corn-equivalent exports or $5.95 billion. This deal is an embodiment of our countries’ longstanding partnership and includes ethanol and SAF that fits into Japan’s policies of increasing the use of renewable fuels, that include U.S. ethanol. The Council looks forward to nurturing the important trade relationship for many more years to come.” READ MORE