Electric Cars Deliver 'No Proven Carbon Savings' in the UK, Scientists Warn in 'Sanity Check' Study

February 11, 2026

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By William Hunter (Daily Mail) EVs produce 30% MORE CO2 emissions in their first two years -- In a new study, described as a 'sanity check' for Britain's Net Zero ambitions, researchers from Queen Mary University say that the push towards EVs is fundamentally misguided.

Because the UK's electricity grid hasn't switched to renewable energy sources, EVs 'run almost entirely on fossil fuel burnt at power stations', according to the team.

As a result, the experts claim the most eco–friendly option is actually a hybrid or efficient diesel car.

In their new paper, accepted for publication in the journal Environmental Research, the scientists compared the UK's 2030 Net Zero plan with real–world data from 2023.

They found that the variability of wind and solar power has been 'grossly underestimated' in the government's plans.

On overcast or windless days, there are significant gaps in energy supply that have to be met by gas–fired power stations.

Since EVs increase demand for electricity during these periods, charging a new EV only results in more fossil fuels being burned to provide the extra electricity.

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In 2024, the government announced that it was bringing forward plans to decarbonise British electricity generation from 2035 to 2030.

That would involve generating 43 to 50 GW of offshore wind power, 27 to 29 GW of onshore wind power, 45 to 47 GW of solar power, and significantly reducing demand for fossil fuels.

At the same time, the government has also been attempting to encourage the adoption of 'clean' electrified technology like EVs and heat pumps.

However, the researchers argue that this represents a fundamental error in planning.

Co–author Professor Alan Drew explained: 'The UK urgently needs to rethink its priorities.

'EVs and heat pumps will be valuable later – but for now, we must stop pretending they are reducing emissions when the data shows they aren't.'

Most research into EV carbon savings calculates their energy consumption based on the total power mix in the UK grid.

In 2025, renewable energy made up 44 per cent of the UK grid's power supply on average.

At the point of driving, recent research estimates that producing the energy to charge an EV creates 75 per cent less CO2 than the equivalent petrol or diesel fuel.

It might, therefore, look like buying an EV would result in less fossil fuel being burned.

However, the researchers argue that this is not the case.

Co–author Professor David Dunstan, from Queen Mary University, told the Daily Mail: 'The mix of current generation is not what is relevant. Adding electricity demand – by adding EVs – does not increase the amount of low–carbon and renewable generation. It can only be met by increasing the fossil gas burn.'

In other words, buying a new EV simply adds one extra car–worth of demand to the UK's energy grid.

If there were plenty of surplus renewable energy to meet that demand, then you would make some emissions savings by going electric.

However, in the UK, that extra demand on the grid is only met by burning more fossil fuels.

An EV only shifts the point of CO2 production back to the point where fossil fuels are burned at the power plant, without making any real savings.

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With the UK grid capacity as it currently stands, eco–friendly drivers would be better off with an efficient hybrid or a very efficient diesel car that will actually reduce the amount of fossil fuels being burned, according to the researchers.

Professor Dunstan and Professor Drew argue that there is no point in increasing electricity demand before we have finished decarbonising the UK's energy supply.

Only France, with its heavy use of nuclear power, is even close to the point that electrification might start to generate serious carbon savings.

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The rest of the world, including the UK, needs to spend less time and resources promoting EVs and more on improving the grid itself,' the experts say.

In terms of next steps, the researchers suggest the government should install more wind and solar power, strengthen the grid to handle the change, and invest in technologies like green hydrogen production that use up surplus renewable energy.

Only then will it be worth moving people over from efficient internal combustion engines to purely electric vehicles.

Professor Drew added: 'The real work right now is strengthening the grid, building renewables and addressing the enormous challenge [of] storage for surplus electricity that renewables create.'

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The hidden environmental costs of electric vehicles

Lithium mining: For every tonne of mined lithium, 15 tonnes of CO2 are emitted into the air, and 100 tonnes of water are consumed.

Cobalt mining: Around 30 per cent of the world's cobalt comes from the Democratic Republic of Congo, where tens of thousands of children work in dangerous mining sites.

Battery production: Producing a single battery for an EV from raw materials produces up to 15.6 tonnes of CO2.

Brake emissions: Heavy EVs use more energy while braking, producing 2,000 times more particulate pollution than a car engine. READ MORE