OECD-FAO Outlook Report Predicts Growth in Ethanol Production
by Erin Voegele (Ethanol Producer Magazine) A new agricultural outlook report published by the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development and the Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations predicts that the consumption and production of biofuels will increase significantly through 2023.
The report, titled “OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2014,” predicts ethanol prices will increase in line with inflation rates and crude oil prices over the next decade. The report forecasts that world ethanol prices will increase by 9 percent in real terms through 2023. While biodiesel prices are also expected to increase, the analysis predicts the increase could be at a slower rate driven primarily by increased vegetable oil prices rather than crude oil prices.
The report predicts cellulosic ethanol production will reach 7.3 billion liters by 2023.
Cellulosic ethanol is expected to account for 5 percent of world ethanol production by 2023, with most produced in the U.S.
With regard to the U.S. industry, the outlook assumes that only 12 percent of the cellulosic mandate under the renewable fuel standard (RFS) will be implemented by 2023. According to the report, biodiesel is expected to help meet the advanced and total biofuel mandates of the RFS, with imports of sugarcane ethanol to meet the advanced gap flatting at the end of the next decade to reach 10 billion liters by 2023.