OK, let’s see. A dominating position in the future of manufacturing, a structural advantage in the cost of energy, enough food security and energy security to pursue an expansionist foreign policy.

Eventually, dominance in finance when all the capital has drained out of the EU and the US and sits in mountains of cash back in China, as it did before the Age of Navigation and the Industrial Revolution eroded China’s 2000-year dominance of world trade.

Let’s look at the 20 signs.

Next generation technologies deploying in China

Lemna.  …build-out of ten commercial-scale units of approximately 5,000 hectares will be implemented step by step at locations to be determined around the world.  …

Cassava stalk.  …ethanol for less than two dollars per gallon…  commercial-scale cellulosic ethanol and butanol distillery that will produce 50,000 metric tons annually.  …

Corncobs. … corncob residues from furfural production into fermentable sugars and then into ethanol…

Pulp mill black liquor. …black liquor gasification technology – a route to 2nd generation biofuels or green power. …

Potato starch residue. …ethanol for fuel use and DDG to verify the profitability for commercialization.  …

Algae.  … 250-module algae biofuels facility …

Integrated biorefineries …

Demand for food crops, oils on rise, affecting world prices …

Aviation biofuels …

New ventures planned …

R&D …

Feedstocks …

Renewable chemicals and Materials …

Expansion to Africa …  READ MORE

The agreement provides for the construction and operation of a micro-crop scientific research program in Hainan Province, China. After the success of the research program, build-out of ten commercial-scale units of approximately 5,000 hectares will be implemented step by step at locations to be determined around the world.

…Parabel’s product platform will enhance global food and energy security, and directly address deficiencies in critical feed, food and fuel industries. The company’s protein product could qualify as the first major new plant protein source for humans since soy entered the human diet in the 1950s, while third-party tests have confirmed the value of Parabel’s animal feed applications as a local feedstock for renewable “drop-in” fuels.

“This is an exciting and unique opportunity,” said Anthony Tiarks, CEO of Parabel. “Not only does this agreement simultaneously accelerate our commercialization process and deepen our relationship with CECEP, but it also envisions the construction of commercial-scale production units outside of mainland China. We look forward to working closely with CECEP to serve critical market needs in China and beyond.”  READ MORE

…What is it with Louisiana? It seems like at-scale renewable diesel projects have never found a a better home. There’s the Dynamic Fuels project – 75 million gallons in Geismar; the 137 million gallon Diamond Green Diesel project under construction in Norco, as a JV between Valero and Darling, and now this one, clocking in at 85 million gallons.

If and when all three are completed, that’s 297 million gallons of capacity in the one state.  …All three plants find themselves in the heavy shipping corridor between Baton Rouge and New Orleans.  READ MORE and MORE (Emerald Biofuels) and MORE (Advanced Biofuels USA)

…Founded in 2009, with its official Israel debut at Israel’s WATEC 2011, a renewable energy and water technology conferenc, hosted last November, UniVerve has ambitions to take a central role in, what the company says will be, a $100 billion global biofuel industry by 2018. The goal: developing a “biological, renewable oil well,” the company wrote in a statement.  READ MORE

OriginOil, Inc., developer of breakthrough technology to convert algae into renewable crude oil, and Algasol Renewables, a technology company with a unique patented technology for low-cost cultivation of micro algae for biofuels and high value products, today announced that they intend to collaborate on the development of an integrated algae growth and harvesting system. By bundling their products, the two companies plan to achieve new levels of cost and performance in micro algae cultivation for biofuels and high value products.

“Algasol’s patented system focuses on how to grow algae in floating bags, and their testing has indicated this can be much more efficient than other cultivation methods,” said Riggs Eckelberry, OriginOil’s CEO. “Now with NASA and Lawrence Berkley working with Algasol, we are excited and eager to contribute our own breakthrough harvesting system to help us collectively achieve a cost breakthrough in the race to compete with petroleum.”

Algasol’s floating bags or photobioreactors (PBRs) can operate in the ocean or in salt water ponds on land. Because they float, Algasol believes their PBRs achieve optimal light exposure with outstanding productivity results and avoid the high temperature and excess salinity often encountered in solar growth systems. Algasol has received a patent in 70 countries for its unique method of floating bags using relative water density.

“With customer demand for an integrated algae production process rising, we need to offer our customers a means of harvesting as well,” said Miguel Verhein, executive director of Algasol Renewables. “We plan to recommend OriginOil’s field-proven chemical-free, high flow and low-energy harvesting system, and once available, the integrated biocrude system they are developing with the Department of Energy.”

Algasol recently entered into a partnership with NASA and the Lawrence Berkley National Laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy. In addition, Algasol has collaborated and maintains a close relationship with Arizona State University (ASU), and is a cornerstone of the recently inaugurated Arizona Center for Algae Technology and Innovation (AzCATI).

OriginOil is working with the Department of Energy’s Idaho National Laboratory to implement a downstream fuel conversion process which it plans to offer as part of the Algasol-OriginOil bundle.   READ MORE

This marks a total of close to $50 million in funding that Heliae has received since launching in 2008.  As a start-up venture spun out of Arizona State University with the support of Science Foundation of Arizona, Heliae’s mission is to develop and validate technology solutions for the commercial production of algae for a variety of potential uses including food & feed, fertilizer, chemicals, pharmaceuticals, cosmetics, and fuel.

This new round of investment will support tangible steps toward creating an international presence for Heliae’s technology by funding continued research and development at Heliae’s demonstration facility in Arizona and taking steps toward operating an R&D center in Indonesia, aiming for commercial production in 2014.

… With the Mars family investment, the company tapped former BioFuel Energy COO Dan Simon as CEO and, unsurprisingly but critically, expanded the focus beyond fuels and into foods, feed and fertilizers. But it had not, by any means, abandoned fuels. Last year SkyNRG signed an MOU with Heliae to produce algae-based jet fuel, and at last year’s Paris Air Show, Heliae Development and Azmark Aero Systems announced a collaboration to develop and promote algal fuels in jet engines.

…We do know that the Helae solution is designed as a bolt-on solution for industrial CO2 emitters or nitrogenous waste sources – and their algal strains are reported to be producing at rates that are well above industry norms.

… In the US and Europe, Anthoni Salim is not all that well known in the US and Europe, but he’s Indonesia’s 5th wealthiest individual (net worth, reported by Forbes at $3.6 billion), and multiple food, cement, real estate, banking, and mining public companies in his control. Over in Asia, his name is an established brand.

The Food Factor. Over the next few years, expect a fairly healthy number of algal companies to pivot to the feed and food sectors, en route to entering fuels.

…Feed and food, while smaller markets than fuels, offer vast gulfs of opportunity, and higher per-ton prices. More importantly, Asia is long capital and short feed.

READ MORE

…Long story short, “In the end Tongwei stole our idea and went it alone,” he says. “The government then told us that even one single cell of algae was a Chinese natural resource and we, as an American company, were unable to grow algae unless we joint ventured with a local company.”

…There is no real algal industry in China yet, only a few startup companies and some university research labs searching for the best strains of algae for oil production. There will probably be nothing very unique or innovative about the Chinese algae industry as most of it will be copied or pirated from the west. Chinese are masters at learning vast amounts of information on paper and reciting it back word for word, but when it comes to innovative and creative thought, China’s solution is to copy to stay competitive.

…Guanxi is accompanied by “gifting/bribing” and preferential business relations. If you are under-capitalized that will be problematic because if officials in power positions can’t directly benefit, they won’t bother lifting a finger. If you think Chinese officials will proceed with algae to help the country, out of patriotism, you are thinking of 1950’s Mao era China. Now, in “modern” China, its pay for play.

… But, overall, disadvantages and weaknesses outweigh any advantages. The lack of knowledge and research compared to the United States is huge. Necessary technology and technical skill is very limited or unavailable.  Chinese society in general does not value the type of individuality that promotes creativity and innovation. Americans generally think change is good, but the Chinese are usually resistant to change, as we were repeatedly reminded by many of our Chinese interns when dealing with the obstacles in the government bureaucracy and business world.

…Another reminder, security at your overseas facility should be a high priority, namely a strong and secure computer network. As you may already know, the Chinese are expert hackers. We found in China that there are no ease-dropping laws; your emails or phone calls can/will be monitored and recorded. You will probably be followed at times, especially if you’re doing cutting edge technology business, and expect your interns or employees to be of questionable loyalty.

As our Chinese friends would say “there are no secrets in China.”  If you’re managing an algae company in America you should definitely develop all your technology in the United States and, if you choose to have it manufactured in China, follow this advice: Do not manufacture the entire unit in one location/factory. Have it separated into individual components; piece it out to different factories with no affiliation to one another, preferably in different provinces. Then re-import the separate pieces into the USA from several different ports out of China and assemble the unit on your home soil.   READ MORE

The first project, with Prime Inc of India, will grow algae on 250 acres at a cost of $100 million and produce $150 million in biodiesel as well as protein for animal and fish feed or that can be turned into ethanol, WHEN Chairman Chaim Lieberman said.

Prime, which provides infrastructures and transportation services to oil companies, will put up the funding in exchange for a 70 percent stake in the project.

The second project, with SHK Energy Projects of India, will comprise a $25 million, 45-acre algae farm expected to bring in $35 million in revenue.  READ MORE

…This year, Republican politicians are throwing algae at Democrats and hoping it will stick.

…Esoteric-sounding or not, algae fuels are part of a new generation of advanced biofuels with the promise of easing the hammerlock of the OPEC cartel on the rest of the world.

…What pro-business Republican opponents of the infant biofuels industry seem to have missed is the fact that business is already several steps ahead of them.

…Much of the work on the new fuels is taking place at the microbial level in science labs. One track involves finding — and then modifying — bacteria and enzymes tailored to extract vast untapped quantities of sugar now locked up in the tough, resistant cell walls of corn cobs, poplar trees, perennial plants such as switchgrass and miscanthus, and many other sources of biomass.

Bloomberg New Energy Finance reported in January that the United States, Argentina, Brazil, China, the European Union, India and Mexico could meet 10% of their gasoline demand by 2030 by converting just 5% of their agricultural waste to next-generation ethanol.

The science is challenging. The trick is to develop bacteria and enzymes that can efficiently breach the defenses of trees and plants, and convert their complex molecular structures into liquids from which biofuels and chemicals can be made cheaply enough to compete with gasoline.

…Another track involves algae. These tiny organisms grow on sunlight and carbon, and store energy in the form of oil and starches from which fuels, chemicals, cosmetics and medicines can be made.

…Just recently, for example, a senior American politician noted that by the end of the decade “you could be fueling 12 airplanes, 20 airplanes, 30 airplanes” with algae-based fuels. That was none other than Newt Gingrich, addressing an audience of California Republicans in February. READ MORE

…Tim Burns was also President, CEO and a co-founder of Bioprocess H2O, one of the four corporate partners, and the one that has shepherded Bioprocess Algae through its short but high profile early days. And while the operation may look like the beginning of the farm of the future, Burns is very clear on the business model he’s pursuing.

“If you looked at what we are about….we are about monetizing carbon. We provide a carbon-capture technology for production of a low cost, but high value, feedstock for feeds, food and fuel. That’s how we differentiate ourselves from the rest of the market.”

…Of the four partner organizations one might wonder what each is bringing to the party. Says Burns, “I would describe technology development and advanced technologies as coming out of the Bioprocess H2O group’s ingenuity and innovation. And then we have GPRE, a company that understands scale, as well as first generation biofuels, and how to grow a platform.

“With Clarcor you have a hundred-year-old, very conservative, very well capitalized, manufacturing company at scale with a $2-3 Billion market cap. – with distribution, materials and equipment available for when BPA builds out the commercial farms. And then you have NTR, which has taken a green technology approach for commercialization, and brings project financing, commercialization, and expertise in renewables.

…So these are the jobs of the future and if you look at these land grant schools, like Iowa State, and the University in Lincoln, Nebraska, they have incredible resources built around the agricultural economy – which is truly, in our opinion, how this economic recovery begins and continues.

I think the new economy will be based more on stuff we need, not stuff we want. As we move forward we need to produce more with less – less arable land, less resources, but more people to feed. And that’s the story of algae.

…Even though algae is new as a crop, the skills aren’t. The skills in wastewater, and food, and ag processing are here. We just have to get them plugged into the new industry grouping. When you look at the market size for feed and food, and the energy side of the equation; if the technology industry is a trillion dollar opportunity, this is a ten-times multiple of that.

…I’d rather algae be a story that is equally balanced in feed, food and fuel. And we get to fuels by having a coproduct market, by having low value oils that are cost competitive, by having other products coming off of these farms. That is the way we are going to enter into the fuel market. It will happen if you allow that coproduct market to evolve and you balance the conversation around feed and food, and not just fuel. I think some in this industry have really done themselves a disservice by just living in the fuel side of the conversation. We are as much protein starved in this world, if not more, than we are energy starved.  READ MORE